4800 yards

Discussion in 'Main Sports Forum' started by InstiGATOR1, Jul 9, 2018.

  1. InstiGATOR1

    InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member
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    It will take about 4800 yards or 400 yards per game of total offense for UF to rise to a rank of about 59th of out around 130 teams nationally in team total offense. That would also put UF right at the average (399 yards) for the SEC which would rank about 8th in the conference.

    This is not a thread to bash the former offense or coaches, but rather a thread to see what might get UF to that number so we can track this a bit during the season. Going game by game with the schedule this would get UF to 4800 yards in total offense:

    Charleston So: 600 yards
    UK: 400 yards
    Co State: 500 yards
    at UTn: 400 yards
    at Miss State: 300 yards
    LSU: 300 yards
    Vandy: 400 yards
    UGa: 300 yards
    UMo: 400 yards
    SoCar: 300 yards
    UAB: 600 yards
    FSU: 300 yards

    Certainly there are other combination, but if UF gets through game 5 with less than 2,000 yards in total offense, UF will not likely make 4,800 yards for the season.

    If you compare these numbers to what UF did last year for the 8 opponents from last year that UF plays this year plus Miss State this year compared to aTm last year UF is only down 6 yards of total offense from these projections. Of course that UF was 71 yards was UF gaining 371 yards against aTm.

    One thing these numbers point out to me is that the prior regime rarely got big yardage against the easy opponents but were stuffed by the really good opponents. Against the middle of the pack guys UF did about what was expected. Against Michigan (192 yards), UGa (249 yards) and FSU (280) yards last year UF stuffed as in past seasons. Then against UAB (409 yards) UF never got the 500 or 600 yards a good offense gets to have a solid total yardage ranking.

    As I said above, you can use this to see how the season is going. I have UF with 2,200 yards of total offense in the first 5 games. Again as I said above, if UF is below 2,000 yards, UF will likely never catch up. If UF has 800 yards against Charleston So. and Co State, then this season is not going great offensively. On the other hand if UF is gaining 350 or so yards against MSU, LSU, UGa, SoCar and FSU, then the offense is showing improvement.
     
    #1 InstiGATOR1, Jul 9, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2018
    • oxrageous

      oxrageous It's Good to be King
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      Started at 2:44 AM and edited at 3:42 AM. Dude, go to bed.

      On topic, the numbers certainly don't seem impossible. I have my doubts we'll hit 600 yards even in the cupcake games but I think we can do better than a lousy 300 in some of the bigger games.
       
      • Swamp Donkey

        Swamp Donkey Ox is a Poor Man's JBoss
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        4800 yards? Not if we played against a teams w half walkons and threw TDs passes to alums who sneak on from the sidelines.
         
      • 78

        78 Dazed and Confused
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        Byrd edits his three days later.
         
        • stephenPE

          stephenPE Senior Member
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          Only one stat flips my gator shorts..............TDs.........we used to out stat (pre SOS) UGA often and always lose.........because of
          points on the score board..............
           
          • Swamp Donkey

            Swamp Donkey Ox is a Poor Man's JBoss
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            Insti works the midnight shift at a Pigly Wiggly near UAL and posts on his breaks.
             
            • InstiGATOR1

              InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member
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              Well I do live where we are in CDT so it was not quite that late. I also spent the last week of June in Vancouver and am still a bit PDT. But I did get what I needed done on Sunday before posting this, but thanks for your concern.
               
              • InstiGATOR1

                InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member
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                I agree, but alas some of UF's problems on offense during the lost decade have been masked a bit by defensive TDs. As offensive scoring only stats are a bit harder to come by and a pick or fumble recovery inside the opponents 10 yard line can muddle things, people have turned to offensive total yards. Still like you I wish for those old days when we were not discussing yards, but scoring.
                 
                • SeabeeGator

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                  Outside of the 600 yard games, your predictions seem reasonable. I think 600 doesn’t happen because Mullen will likely be deep into the bench if moving the ball is that easy.

                  That said, total yards, points per game, etc isn’t a great metric for measuring success. Too easily skewed by a limited number of games. Although donk is loathe to admit it, offensive efficiency stats will tell a more realistic story. It removes garbage time and adjusts for opponent strength. Check it out on football outsiders and see what you think.
                   
                • Windy City Gator

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                  85 game comes to mind....
                   
                • Chomper

                  Chomper Senior Member
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                  Someone once said "statistics are for losers" so I am wondering what is the magic ypg mark to improve on 4-7. I would guess that opponents' ypg would come into play here.
                   
                  • GatorInGeorgia

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                    Is that UALtusc, UALanchorage, UALnewmex or a different UAL? Please clarify exactly which UAL you’re referring to. :)
                     
                  • InstiGATOR1

                    InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member
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                    The problem here is not 4-7 last year, but rather going 10-3 and 9-3 the two years before with a similar offense that clearly was broken and not going to take UF anywhere. Had McElwain fixed the offense, he likely would still be at UF even with a substandard record last year.
                     
                  • Swamp Donkey

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                    Im not even sure myself anymore.
                     
                    • Gator Fever

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                      We won't be hitting 4800 yards in our 12 regular season games with Franks at QB unless we get 700 plus against Charleston Southern.
                       
                    • InstiGATOR1

                      InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member
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                      Well we at least have metric to follow along and see if the offense is ahead of schedule or not. I am agnostic on Franks. He has all the tools to run Mullen's offense, but the light has not come on yet. Many including me wonder if there is something missing so the light can never come on. I guess we may see.
                       
                      • Jake from State Farm

                        Jake from State Farm I'm wearing Khakis, why?

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                        My expectations have been tempered by the recent results.
                         
                      • InstiGATOR1

                        InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member
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                        Well here we are 3 games in and so we can look at where UF's offense is compared to where it needs to be to have a decent offense:

                        Charleston Southern: projected 600 yards, actual 446 yards, difference -154 yards
                        Kentucky: projected 400 yards, actual 360 yards, difference -60 yards
                        Colorado State: projected 500 yards, actual 361 yards, difference -139 yards.

                        I had these three opponents as 1500 yards of UF 4800 yards or 31.25% towards having a respectable offense. UF has in actual fact totaled 1167 which if my projections hold imply a UF offense that "piles" up 3734 yards or 311 per game which would have been good for 120th in the country last year. That would be10 spots worse than UF last year despite UF last year having a game having 2 less games against non power 5 opponents.

                        Only the first 3 games have happened and we can always hope that UF's offense gets clicking. Still one quarter of the way through the season, the numbers do not encourage me a lot.
                         
                        • OllieGator

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                        • Gator Fever

                          Gator Fever Senior Member

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                          That is real bad as except for last season where the joke opponent got dropped and we opened with Michigan. We would normally be well over 400 yards a game right now. We are the # 93 ranked offense even with playing KY and the 2 cupcakes.
                           

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