- Jun 12, 2016
- 4,070
- 5,382
He’s got loads of SEC experience and inherits a roster full of exciting sophomores and juniors. How long might it take him?
How long will it take Dan Mullen to get Florida out of its rut?
Long ago at Football Outsiders, I took a look at whether any type of coach is more likely to succeed than any others. The only broad conclusions I could reach were as follows:
Florida’s historical norms:
Following the 2010 season, Florida’s 50-year average percentile rating in the S&P+ rankings was 84.7 percent. If you recall standardized testing, that’s pretty good. The Gators had achieved at an elite level throughout most of the 1990s and 2000s, but had been at least solid before that.
Basically, all Florida needs is a decent head coach in order to play at a top-15 level.
During the seven seasons since, Florida’s average percentile rating in S&P+ is only 76.2 percent. Granted, 2017’s strange collapse played a role in that figure, but you could say UF’s hires of Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain were average at best.
Hiring a coach with the right kind of experience:
Muschamp and McElwain had solid résumés. But neither had been a P5 head coach before.
Mullen has nine years of not only P5 head coaching experience, but SEC head coaching experience.
And he led historical overachievement at Mississippi State. In the 50 years before his arrival, MSU’s average percentile rating was 57 percent. In his nine seasons, it was 75.4 percent. His Bulldogs finished ranked in the AP top 20 three times and won six bowls. He raised the bar significantly in Starkville.
Any further context you want to add is even friendlier. You know, like how how Florida’s offense had an average Off. S&P+ ranking of fifth during his last three years as OC in Gainesville (2006-08) and has had an average ranking of 65.4 since.
On paper, this is very likely to be at least a good hire for Florida. I would be floored if the Gators weren’t at least top-15 good soon. (They’ve only hit that mark twice in the last seven years.) On the field, this was a nearly risk-free hire.
Meanwhile, though July recruiting rankings are as conversational as they are consequential, Mullen hasn’t done himself any favors there either.
Then there’s the product on the field. Florida didn’t bottom out in exactly the same way that Tennessee did last season — while UT’s Butch Jones was very much fired for on-field performance, McElwain’s dismissal was blurrier, and the Gators were decent for half the season. Still, as with Jeremy Pruitt at UT, Mullen is facing a Year Zero season while figuring out what kind of building job he’s got.
Florida’s got plenty of individual talent, even if this latest stupid scandal continues. It’s hard to set 2018 expectations until we know the timeline for the rebuild, but we can still make an educated guess on how the season will go.
2017 Florida advanced statistical profile[/paste:font]
The 2018 advanced college football stats glossary
Offense
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/11691345/2017FloridaOffRadar.png)
Let’s start with a positive: Florida should be pretty good up front. The Gators were mostly solid in run blocking last year — they were 31st in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and 32nd in Adj. Line Yards, though they were far from awesome in short-yardage situations (82nd in power success rate) — despite young running backs.
They now return all eight linemen who started at least one game last year and who’ve combined for 112 career starts. Left tackle Martez Ivey has mostly lived up to his five-star hype (he was second-team all-SEC last year), and while McElwain didn’t recruit like gangbusters up front, he did compile experience.
Granted, pass blocking numbers were terrible. Both primary quarterbacks, Feleipe Franks and Malik Zaire, took sacks on over 11 percent of their pass attempts, and UF ranked a wretched 114th in Adj. Sack Rate. But a lot of that is on the shoulders of the QBs, not necessarily on the line. Franks was an overwhelmed redshirt freshman, and Zaire was sack-prone at Notre Dame, too.
UF did appear to have some answers brewing. After a struggle against Michigan, the Gators averaged 6.3 yards per play and 31 points per game in wins over Tennessee, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. Freshman Malik Davis rushed 42 times for 311 yards, Franks completed 65 percent of his passes and averaged a strong eight yards per pass attempt (including sacks), and sophomore Tyrie Cleveland caught 11 of 18 balls for 270 yards. The young core looked ready.
And then the calendar flipped to October. Franks took 15 sacks in three games and went into a shell. Zaire took over and did the same, so Franks got the job again. After producing a 150.3 passer rating in September, Franks managed just 99.3 thereafter.
Still, he was a freshman. So was Davis, who missed the last month of the season with a knee injury. Cleveland’s production vanished when his QBs’ production did, but he’s still a former blue-chipper with a a track record. (He was also involved in the frying pan scandal.)
Potential has never been Florida’s problem, but the list of guys with it is awfully long.
Needless to say, though, it’s been a while since Florida’s offense lived up to recruiting rankings.
How long will it take Dan Mullen to get Florida out of its rut?
Long ago at Football Outsiders, I took a look at whether any type of coach is more likely to succeed than any others. The only broad conclusions I could reach were as follows:
- Programs tend to gravitate toward their historical norms.
- If you can get a coach with power conference coaching experience, that’s slightly more likely to work out for you than anything else.
Florida’s historical norms:
Following the 2010 season, Florida’s 50-year average percentile rating in the S&P+ rankings was 84.7 percent. If you recall standardized testing, that’s pretty good. The Gators had achieved at an elite level throughout most of the 1990s and 2000s, but had been at least solid before that.
Basically, all Florida needs is a decent head coach in order to play at a top-15 level.
During the seven seasons since, Florida’s average percentile rating in S&P+ is only 76.2 percent. Granted, 2017’s strange collapse played a role in that figure, but you could say UF’s hires of Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain were average at best.
Hiring a coach with the right kind of experience:
Muschamp and McElwain had solid résumés. But neither had been a P5 head coach before.
Mullen has nine years of not only P5 head coaching experience, but SEC head coaching experience.
And he led historical overachievement at Mississippi State. In the 50 years before his arrival, MSU’s average percentile rating was 57 percent. In his nine seasons, it was 75.4 percent. His Bulldogs finished ranked in the AP top 20 three times and won six bowls. He raised the bar significantly in Starkville.
Any further context you want to add is even friendlier. You know, like how how Florida’s offense had an average Off. S&P+ ranking of fifth during his last three years as OC in Gainesville (2006-08) and has had an average ranking of 65.4 since.
On paper, this is very likely to be at least a good hire for Florida. I would be floored if the Gators weren’t at least top-15 good soon. (They’ve only hit that mark twice in the last seven years.) On the field, this was a nearly risk-free hire.
Meanwhile, though July recruiting rankings are as conversational as they are consequential, Mullen hasn’t done himself any favors there either.
Then there’s the product on the field. Florida didn’t bottom out in exactly the same way that Tennessee did last season — while UT’s Butch Jones was very much fired for on-field performance, McElwain’s dismissal was blurrier, and the Gators were decent for half the season. Still, as with Jeremy Pruitt at UT, Mullen is facing a Year Zero season while figuring out what kind of building job he’s got.
Florida’s got plenty of individual talent, even if this latest stupid scandal continues. It’s hard to set 2018 expectations until we know the timeline for the rebuild, but we can still make an educated guess on how the season will go.
2017 Florida advanced statistical profile[/paste:font]
The 2018 advanced college football stats glossary
Offense
Let’s start with a positive: Florida should be pretty good up front. The Gators were mostly solid in run blocking last year — they were 31st in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and 32nd in Adj. Line Yards, though they were far from awesome in short-yardage situations (82nd in power success rate) — despite young running backs.
They now return all eight linemen who started at least one game last year and who’ve combined for 112 career starts. Left tackle Martez Ivey has mostly lived up to his five-star hype (he was second-team all-SEC last year), and while McElwain didn’t recruit like gangbusters up front, he did compile experience.
Granted, pass blocking numbers were terrible. Both primary quarterbacks, Feleipe Franks and Malik Zaire, took sacks on over 11 percent of their pass attempts, and UF ranked a wretched 114th in Adj. Sack Rate. But a lot of that is on the shoulders of the QBs, not necessarily on the line. Franks was an overwhelmed redshirt freshman, and Zaire was sack-prone at Notre Dame, too.
UF did appear to have some answers brewing. After a struggle against Michigan, the Gators averaged 6.3 yards per play and 31 points per game in wins over Tennessee, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. Freshman Malik Davis rushed 42 times for 311 yards, Franks completed 65 percent of his passes and averaged a strong eight yards per pass attempt (including sacks), and sophomore Tyrie Cleveland caught 11 of 18 balls for 270 yards. The young core looked ready.
And then the calendar flipped to October. Franks took 15 sacks in three games and went into a shell. Zaire took over and did the same, so Franks got the job again. After producing a 150.3 passer rating in September, Franks managed just 99.3 thereafter.
Still, he was a freshman. So was Davis, who missed the last month of the season with a knee injury. Cleveland’s production vanished when his QBs’ production did, but he’s still a former blue-chipper with a a track record. (He was also involved in the frying pan scandal.)
Potential has never been Florida’s problem, but the list of guys with it is awfully long.
- Ole Miss transfer Van Jefferson and former blue-chipper caught 91 passes over two seasons in Oxford and produced a plus-14 percent marginal efficiency, which dwarfed that of any Florida receiver besides slot man Kadarius Toney. (Jefferson was in what I’ll politely call a more WR-friendly offense.)
- Toney, another member of the Frying Pan Seven, caught 15 of 21 passes with a lovely 57 percent success rate. He also rushed 14 times for 120 yards. He also did next to nothing after September.
- Running back Adarius Lemons came off the bench late in his freshman year and gained 110 yards in 13 carries against UAB and FSU.Juniors like running back Lamical Perine and receivers Josh Hammond and Freddie Swain didn’t produce intriguing per-touch numbers but have racked up experience. There’s another layer of four-star youngsters who have barely seen the field, but still might carry potential. Perhaps the most noteworthy: Ohio State transfer Trevon Grimes, sophomore Daquon Green, JUCO tight end Lucas Krull, and freshman slot Jacob Copeland.
Needless to say, though, it’s been a while since Florida’s offense lived up to recruiting rankings.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/11691349/2017FloridaDefRadar.png)
