Bits & Pieces: Florida vs. Miami

[LongTooth]

Stiner and Taylor were really bad at safety. But, on seeing the replay, Davis made an incredible play to break up a pass to a much bigger TE during the epic multiple stands at the end. Henderson made a similar play in the end zone, but we expect it from him.

And Kyle Pitts is an absolute BEAST. Longer and leaner and making the plays all over the park. He and Hammond really stood out on O.

 

[Gatorbait25]

I see you have two issues here. One is calling a RPO in the goal-to-go situation they were in. Two is Franks' decision on the play. I won't argue your first point, that seems more of an opinion based on the outcome of the play. To your second point, there was a video (tried to find it, couldn't) that showed Grimes breaking open to the middle of the field. With enough space for Franks to fire one in; similar to the pass to Perine for a TD. Was is wide open? No, but not the "total traffic" you are talking about.

I'll look again for the video and post.
ETA: here's the video

Thanks for the video. They are in man. The pass is the right choice by Franks here. It's an easy 6 for Grimes with a ball that leads him at the goal line. Possibly even a score for Freddie if Van keeps his block on the corner. The safety here is playing inside out on Freddie, so unless he is a hell of a player he doesn't stop Swain from scoring if he takes the bubble to the corner. Again this assumes Van blocks his man for another 2 seconds. The defender on Grimes has completely lost inside leverage and doesn't have safety help due to the bubble. It's a good play call. Just should've been a PA instead of an RPO. There are two linebackers and a backside safety Perine would've had to beat on the run.

 

[lagator]

From Football Outsiders:

If you are new to the party: we don't claim that forcing fumbles is not a skill, nor do we claim that some running backs aren't very fumble-prone. (Bryce Brown, take a bow!) What we claim is that once the pointy ball hits the carpet, there is a lot of luck involved in which team claims the possession that comes with a recovery. In a 16-game season of close games, a lot of games can turn based on a few unlucky bounces on fumbles. These things tend to regress to the mean over the time. To name one example of how quickly a percentage can turn, in 2010, the Oakland Raiders kept a league-high 65 percent of their offensive fumbles, recovering 15 of 23 balls that hit the ground. In 2011, the Raiders fumbled 14 times, and recovered just seven of them.

This is true. It's why I always felt fumbling rules are idiotic. Fumbling is right up there as one of the most egregious errors an offense/special teams can make, but the way the oblong object bounces and rolls after being dropped is defined by chaos theory, so why should fumbling have the potential to be a significant positive for the team possessing the ball? To me obvious rules should be the best outcome for the fumbling team should be if you regain possession you get the ball at the point of the fumble or the point of recovery, whichever is further back, and if you fumble out of bounds that should be a turnover.

 

[SeabeeGator]

This is true. It's why I always felt fumbling rules are idiotic. Fumbling is right up there as one of the most egregious errors an offense/special teams can make, but the way the oblong object bounces and rolls after being dropped is defined by chaos theory, so why should fumbling have the potential to be a significant positive for the team possessing the ball? To me obvious rules should be the best outcome for the fumbling team should be if you regain possession you get the ball at the point of the fumble or the point of recovery, whichever is further back, and if you fumble out of bounds that should be a turnover.

I don’t mind the rules as is. I’m more bothered by some posters’ inability to grasp this concept.

 

[soflagator]

This is true. It's why I always felt fumbling rules are idiotic. Fumbling is right up there as one of the most egregious errors an offense/special teams can make, but the way the oblong object bounces and rolls after being dropped is defined by chaos theory, so why should fumbling have the potential to be a significant positive for the team possessing the ball? To me obvious rules should be the best outcome for the fumbling team should be if you regain possession you get the ball at the point of the fumble or the point of recovery, whichever is further back, and if you fumble out of bounds that should be a turnover.

That's what was so frustrating about the fumbles we caused. We definitely failed in recovery, but some of them just rolled toward an open space or their own players, and I think they gained like 20 combined yards on 3 of them. So twice it went from a possible turnover to nearly getting a first down. It's almost unheard.

 

[TheDouglas78]

That's what was so frustrating about the fumbles we caused. We definitely failed in recovery, but some of them just rolled toward an open space or their own players, and I think they gained like 20 combined yards on 3 of them. So twice it went from a possible turnover to nearly getting a first down. It's almost unheard.

ON the stat sheet it wasn't gained for 20 yards, but one turned a sack that was 15 yards behind the line until a -2 yard tackle for loss, and the other one was something similar to that.

 

[RiverRat]

Sometimes winning ugly is just part of football, I remember the Gators playing Vandy back in 1996. Vandy was the worst team in the SEC that year 2-7 I think. our QB ( Danny heisman winner Wuerffe) had a fumble returned for a score and one or two picks and Fl. was held to to about the same yardage we had against Miami and had to hold off Vandy in the fourth quarter to get the win. This was with the best Offense Fl. has ever put on a football field.
Point is chit happens sometimes ,we won, get over it.

Oh yeah we won a natty that year.

 

[soflagator]

ON the stat sheet it wasn't gained for 20 yards, but one turned a sack that was 15 yards behind the line until a -2 yard tackle for loss, and the other one was something similar to that.

Then the first drive where they picked up a few extra on the 3rd down fumble.

 

[stephenPE]

I remember the Gators playing Vandy back in 1996. Vandy was the worst team in the SEC that year 2-7 I think. our QB ( Danny heisman winner Wuerffe) had a fumble returned for a score and one or two picks and Fl. was held to to about the same yardage we had against Miami and had to hold off Vandy in the fourth quarter to get the win

I was there. Vandy tackled Danny on one TD return. I knew the fix was in then even with 10 penalties in one half. My 11 yr old daughter was freaked out by the turn of events. Crazy game.

 

[GatorBart]

Sometimes winning ugly is just part of football, I remember the Gators playing Vandy back in 1996. Vandy was the worst team in the SEC that year 2-7 I think. our QB ( Danny heisman winner Wuerffe) had a fumble returned for a score and one or two picks and Fl. was held to to about the same yardage we had against Miami and had to hold off Vandy in the fourth quarter to get the win. This was with the best Offense Flmhas ever put on a football field.
Point is chit happens sometimes ,we won, get over it.

I was at that Vandy game in Nashville!

 

[Ancient Reptile]

Do fumble recoveries really regress to the mean? Didn't our fumble recoveries finish distinctly above the mean just last year? If fumble recoveries are really governed by chaos, aren't the fumbles pretty much a toss up every time? Maybe we catch up, maybe we fall farther behind, or maybe we finish the season where we are now, at -3.

 

[SeabeeGator]

Do fumble recoveries really regress to the mean? Didn't our fumble recoveries finish distinctly above the mean just last year? If fumble recoveries are really governed by chaos, aren't the fumbles pretty much a toss up every time? Maybe we catch up, maybe we fall farther behind, or maybe we finish the season where we are now, at -3.

Yes, generally speaking.

 

[Ancient Reptile]

Yes, generally speaking.

As an engineer, you should know better.

 

[SeabeeGator]

As an engineer, you should know better.

I’ve seen the data. It’s compelling, especially over the course of a season.

 

[SeabeeGator]

As an engineer, you should know better.

Analytics: Fumble Recoveries are Random

Basically completely random. Random between two teams generally regresses to 50%.

 

[Ancient Reptile]

Analytics: Fumble Recoveries are Random

Basically completely random. Random between two teams generally regresses to 50%.

I know that you know better, so I assume the problem is in what you mean by "regresses to the mean". So, right now we are (I believe) 1 recovery and 4 losses for a total of -3. If we finished +29 and -32 so that we were still -3, would you say that we had regressed to the mean? If that is your definition, then "fine". Otherwise, no unless you give up on randomness and claim that teams that start out behind work harder and become better at turnovers. To the extent that the process is truly random, the probability that Team A will recover the next fumble is the same as the probability that it would have recovered the last fumble. Abandoning randomness and arguing for "works harder" would require a very detailed analysis by s statitician of a large data base.

 

[G8trwood]

Are we trying to use logic and math in the same thread, on GChatter? ;). Next thing Grimes is going to announce he is a safety and publicly thank a farm animal for the suggestion.

Go Gators

 

[rogdochar]

2 weeks before these Gators can please us better. I can't just sit and wait that long before my Gators get better. So, I'm gonna make them better right now!

1) So, there was that potential longish TD pass that Swain leaped high and deflected from being right on target for Cleveland? further downfield.
2) TD denied via the bumbled handoff-keepit between Franks and Perrine. Bet they weren't practiced enuf with that possibility in mind.
3) that stupid "late-in-game" pass-call where the Miami rusher stopped FF's throwing motion creating a lame duck that was intercepted.
4) then the weird luck that had us not recover 1 of their fumbles.
We could be overlooking 2 extra TDs to make it 38 - 20.

CDM & crew have 2 continuous weeks to make a sharper team. The fact that Emory wasn't considered must indicate how worried Mullen was about this non-creampuff game or it means Emory trails FF by a bigger distance than we think. Personally, I have faith in EJ's athleticism. That game was a heck of a "warm-up" to make us better going forward. It probably put a chip on our shoulderpads.?

 

[SeabeeGator]

I know that you know better, so I assume the problem is in what you mean by "regresses to the mean". So, right now we are (I believe) 1 recovery and 4 losses for a total of -3. If we finished +29 and -32 so that we were still -3, would you say that we had regressed to the mean? If that is your definition, then "fine". Otherwise, no unless you give up on randomness and claim that teams that start out behind work harder and become better at turnovers. To the extent that the process is truly random, the probability that Team A will recover the next fumble is the same as the probability that it would have recovered the last fumble. Abandoning randomness and arguing for "works harder" would require a very detailed analysis by s statitician of a large data base.

Yes, I’m speaking in percentage recovered. Like everyone else in the world who looks at this stat. We currently sit at 20% recovered. In your scenario, we get back to the high 40s. Quite literally regressing to the mean.

 

[SeabeeGator]

Are we trying to use logic and math in the same thread, on GChatter? ;). Next thing Grimes is going to announce he is a safety and publicly thank a farm animal for the suggestion.

Go Gators

@Swamp Donkey has been clear from the get go - Cleveland’s future is at safety, not Grimes.