Just a little more about your post.
I read how you worded this and I recognize your conundrum. Also, based on your posting history, I see you as someone who is much more financially savvy than the average person...
But here is my takeaway from your post: "A very financially savvy guy does not know what to do in the current market situation." That's yet another indicator to me of what is going on right now.
I would keep powder dry and wait. We're down 30% overall. It took three years for the dotcom bubble to bust and bottom. Do you REALLY think we are anywhere near bottom yet?
I posted a thread at about 3 am this morning with my thoughts and then pulled it, because I didn't want to be "that guy." BNA was still awake and through the power of "Modship" was able to read what I deleted, and I think he deleted my blank thread.
Here were my thoughts in a nutshell:
- The slow walk to shutdown we are STILL walking toward really has nothing to do with the pandemic. It has everything to do with a global financial "reckoning" that is long overdue.
- We are slowly being prepared for something really bad, and it ain't "the flu on steroids."
- The Trump "hyper bubble" (gains of last 3.5 years) are now erased.
- There is still a MUCH bigger bubble left to go, the Obama bubble.
- As a financially smart guy, you well know that true "free" markets serve only one purpose: to fairly price things, and the market is no different, even with manipulation. Eventually, there is a reckoning and it will be fairly valued, one way or the other.
- The last time the DJIA was "fairly valued" is when it was at 6,000. That's when we started the real games with QE 1. It's been a bubble ever since.
- So, in the big picture, which do you think is more likely:
- We are pretty close to the bottom and more likely to resume the march to Dow 30,000? Or,
- We are being prepped for something really terrible, a reckoning/reset that will also set China back far more than it will us, and the market will "fairly value" itself and test 6,000?
- And yes, in the end, the Fed/USG will literally own not just Boeing, but whole sectors of the economy (likely the most important ones), and so will all our "friendly" CB nations. We already see the Fed shoveling money to them by the truckload. First with the EU, then it expanded to other friendly nation central banks this week. And it will continue, probably by trillion(s).
- I know people are talking $2-3 trillion, but we've already done that in the first MONTH.
- Quit worrying about the pandemic, worry about each other, and keep your powder dry.
- If I'm wrong, you'll only miss out on what, a 5-10% increase in Boeing's value after you watch a true bottom form and then you only partake in the rest of the upside?
- You understand the "catching a falling knife" saying, and I'm not picking on Brad, but it's a great example. Yes, I agree with him, RCL will recover one day. It is now down 50% from the "great deal" he got on it at $47... Now, he ONLY needs it to go up 100%... to break even.
- I wouldn't touch anything long until we see the slow walking to shut down end.