In terms of likelihood:
1) Billy Davis
2) Jim Leavitt
3) Who knows?
I'd take Jim leavitt, he could toughen up our defense.
The dude can coach....
What Jim Leavitt’s impact on Oregon in 2017 could mean for 2018
https://theathletic.com/154643/2017...s-defensive-coordinator-improvement-colorado/
When Oregon coach Willie Taggart announced last December that he had hired Jim Leavitt away from Colorado to revamp the Ducks defense, college football took notice.
Leavitt, who was a 2016 Broyles Award finalist (given to the best assistant coach in college football), had helped the Buffs defense undergo one of the most impressive turnarounds of any unit in college football in recent memory.
He took a group that, in 2014, ranked among the worst in terms of scoring defense, total defense, rush defense and forcing turnovers, and within two seasons had it in the top 20 nationally in most defensive categories.
So, when Leavitt came to Oregon, a team that ranked horribly in scoring defense (126th), total defense (126th), rush defense (121st) and forcing turnovers (118th), the comparisons began and fans began hoping that the same turnaround would happen in Eugene.
But Leavitt said he didn’t look at those numbers or see how similar they were to Colorado.
“I never look at the past,” he told The Athletic. “I never look what they did. I don’t compare. I don’t do anything like that. That would just confuse me.”
But the comparison is there. Even with the Ducks sitting at 5-5 (including 2-5 in Pac-12 play), the growth that the defense has made this season is one reason why Oregon fans should be very hopeful for 2018.
Here’s a closer look at what the numbers say:
The Pre-Leavitt similarities
Leavitt said he doesn’t compare rebuilds at all (even when — as with Colorado and Oregon — he’s moving teams from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense).
Colorado in 2014 and Oregon in 2016 actually create a fair baseline in terms of comparison because of how closely so many of their statistics align, as well as the fact that, being in the same conference, the competition is similar enough.
(See chart)
The first thing Leavitt said he did when he got to Oregon last winter was evaluate not only the talent, but also the players as competitors, which he admits, is also the first thing he did at Colorado.
“You’ve got to find the guys that really want to play, that really want to invest,” he said. “And that’s hard. Nothing is easy. There are no smoke and mirrors. … If you don’t have enough guys on defense that are willing to invest, then you’re not going to get it done.”
Because of that, Leavitt says that the rotation is smaller this season (around 15 players) than it would be further into a program.
Former Colorado outside linebacker/defensive end Jimmie Gilbert, who was a part of the transition from pre-Leavitt to Leavitt in Boulder, said he remembered the intensity jump when Leavitt arrived. Specifically, Leavitt asked his front seven to be far more active. Even on 30-yard passes, Gilbert recounted, Leavitt would require his linemen to turn around and sprint five meters. Every time someone didn’t sprint, it counted as a “loaf” and conditioning was handed out to players for each one.
“That’s one thing that drew our defensive core around him when he came in, because he came in with his head on fire, no BS, straight to the point,” Gilbert told The All-American. “He doesn’t tolerate mediocrity. And when he sees it, he lets you know.”
Early Colorado, early Oregon
Ten games into the 2015 season, the Buffs were 4-6 and coming off a 32-point loss to then-No. 11 Stanford. Now, Oregon is 5-5 coming off an idle week that was preceded by a 35-point loss to then-No. 12 Washington.
Up to this point, the two teams’ defensive statistics have been relatively similar, but the sample size didn’t feel large enough. Now, 10 full games in (including six Pac-12 games for Colorado in 2015, seven for Oregon in 2017), and with the teams having played a comparable number of defensive snaps, the time seemed appropriate to check in on the comparative progress.
(See chart)
Percentage-wise, some of these improvements are, again, staggeringly similar. Colorado’s scoring defense had improved 27.4 percent from 2014 to 10 games into 2015. Oregon’s scoring defense has improved 27.3 percent since last season. Colorado’s sack numbers had improved by 12 percent, whereas Oregon’s have improved by 17.
But in other statistics, the Ducks are ahead of the Buffs — Oregon’s rushing defense has improved by two yards per carry this season (Colorado’s had improved by 0.4 yards per carry).
“We’ve got a long way to go,” Leavitt said. “You’re seeing a little bit of a glimmer, but that’s about all you’re seeing. We’ve got a lot of work to do.”
What comes next
Seeing that Oregon and Colorado pre-Leavitt were quite similar and that 10 games in, several of those numbers continue to be consistent, one could infer that the jump Colorado made in 2016 could be on the horizon for the Ducks.
If that’s the case, Oregon fans should be thrilled. Because several statistical categories — specifically, red zone defense, quarterback pressure, scoring defense — improved drastically in Colorado’s second year in Leavitt’s system.
“The first season, I was still confused by the calls and the stunts and everything else,” Gilbert said. “By the time the second season came around, you were so fluent in it because you were battle-tested. It was all fine-tuning (in Year 2). It wasn’t new. You’re no longer in a test drive, it’s full-on race to the finish line.”
Here is Colorado’s full improvement, from the year before Leavitt arrived through his second and final season:
(See chart)
If Oregon can keep pace with the improvements made by Colorado in 2016, the Ducks could be fielding a very impressive team next season.
So, while this season has had its disappointments for Oregon fans, the good news is that there is good news: The defense appears to be laying the foundation for a 2016 Colorado-like appearance in 2017.
The Ducks just have to hope Leavitt sticks around longer to enjoy his work this time.
. I wouldnt mind Gene Chizik
