ESPN FPI Projections 2019

[88drgator]

Projected W-L: Projected overall W-L, accounting for results to date and FPI-based projections for remaining scheduled games (including potential conference championship games). May not sum to a whole number because of differing number of games played in each simulation.

 

[Sec14Gator]

A lot of interesting things in this. This projects us at 4 losses, despite being the 8th highest FPI. Not surprisingly, it has UF with the 4th toughest schedule in the nation. Also, even with our past problems with Missouri, it's interesting (and just seems wrong) that FPI has us with a better chance of losing to either Missouri or South Carolina compared to Auburn.

Also, Miami and FSU being considered easier wins that the bluegrass rednecks, Cocks and Hillbillies is pretty funny.

 

[88drgator]

A lot of interesting things in this. This projects us at 4 losses, despite being the 8th highest FPI. Not surprisingly, it has UF with the 4th toughest schedule in the nation. Also, even with our past problems with Missouri, it's interesting (and just seems wrong) that FPI has us with a better chance of losing to either Missouri or South Carolina compared to Auburn.

Also, Miami and FSU being considered easier wins that the bluegrass rednecks, Cocks and Hillbillies is pretty funny.

One explanation is the weight put on home v. road games by the index.

 

[B52G8rAC]

A lot of interesting things in this. This projects us at 4 losses, despite being the 8th highest FPI. Not surprisingly, it has UF with the 4th toughest schedule in the nation. Also, even with our past problems with Missouri, it's interesting (and just seems wrong) that FPI has us with a better chance of losing to either Missouri or South Carolina compared to Auburn.

Also, Miami and FSU being considered easier wins that the bluegrass rednecks, Cocks and Hillbillies is pretty funny.

Just curious, how did you arrive at 4 losses?

 

[Sec14Gator]

Just curious, how did you arrive at 4 losses?

It is a function of the percentages. For instance, if you play 4 games with approximately 75% of winning, that equates to projecting 1 loss from those 4. I double checked ESPN's website and they also end up calculating 8-4 (actually 8.2-4).

 

[The Lateral Move]

I'm growing to hate Mizzou

 

[88drgator]

Just curious, how did you arrive at 4 losses?

Florida 2019 FPI - Gators - ESPN

I think based on the site. My bad. I should've posted the link originally.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

playing ACC teams really hurts our strength of schedule

 

[Captain Sasquatch]

Even computers overrate Tennessee at the beginning of every year.

"No really, we swear, this is the year they'll be good again!"

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Even computers overrate Tennessee at the beginning of every year.

"No really, we swear, this is the year they'll be good again!"

they fail to adjust for the fact that Tennessee again hired a head coach with a sub 100 IQ

 

[jaywalker72]

Projected W-L: Projected overall W-L, accounting for results to date and FPI-based projections for remaining scheduled games (including potential conference championship games). May not sum to a whole number because of differing number of games played in each simulation.

Suck it, math.

 

[deuce]

I think projecting 10 wins may be optimistic for some but at this time, why not?

 

[InstiGATOR1]

What I find interesting is that ESPN's metric says that UF has a better chance of beating UGa in Jacksonville than at LSU. I find this particularly interesting given how often in the recent and not so recent pasts the road team and UF in Baton Rouge in particular wins in this series.

 

[78]

Miami, Auburn, Tennessee and LSU surprise me, by varying degrees but all for the same reason.

Less than a 1-in-3 in Death Valley against a so-so LSU team? Bring it.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

I'm growing to hate Mizzou

Why? UMo have not really been that good or really good at all in the SEC. UF has stumbled against them a number of times since they have been in the SEC mainly because of UF coaching including last season. Hopefully Mullen will grow in this job and start limiting such performances this season.

 

[The Lateral Move]

What I find interesting is that ESPN's metric says that UF has a better chance of beating UGa in Jacksonville than at LSU. I find this particularly interesting given how often in the recent and not so recent pasts the road team and UF in Baton Rouge in particular wins in this series.

ESPN has always had a hard-on for Death Valley

 

[The Lateral Move]

Why? UMo have not really been that good or really good at all in the SEC. UF has stumbled against them a number of times since they have been in the SEC mainly because of UF coaching including last season. Hopefully Mullen will grow in this job and start limiting such performances this season.

Yeah I just mean because it seems like they always have our number. I think we tend to overlook them too. It's nothing against them personally. They run a super clean program so I don't "hate" them like I hate say, Miami.

I never would've thought we'd be 3-4 against them at this point since they joined the conference in 2012.

 

[Sec14Gator]

I never would've thought we'd be 3-4 against them at this point since they joined the conference in 2012.

These two dickwads respond “hold my beer”:





Mullen needs to avoid becoming the third fave here.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

ESPN has always had a hard-on for Death Valley

Yeah, I have never quite gotten the claimed toughness of "Death to LSU" Tiger Stadium.