Great read on defensive talent

[alcoholica]

That's the argument that he's attempting to make, but the data doesn't support it.

The argument depends on the assumption that the player grade is a measure of talent. When you look at how much the grades of individual players go up and down year over year it's pretty obvious that coaching, scheme, strength of opposition, and other circumstances also play a significant role in the grade. Ergo, the assumption is not valid and the argument falls apart.

Why not use the recruiting rankings which are more based on talent? Because it doesn't give him the same result?

I get what you’re saying, but it sounds like you’re conflating talent and physical measurements. I mean that’s what the recruiting rankings primarily take into account along with the ability to produce results at the HS level.

What the author points out is deficiencies across multiple years. Coaching may be a factor and he addresses that, but it’s hard to argue that Jason Marshall’s physical talent can overcome his lack of mental talent.

 

[B52G8rAC]

Just a question. How do we know the coaching staff didn't assign a spy.

 

[jeeping8r]

Didn't watch mizzou game as Grandson decided that was a good day to get hitched.
Anyway did I read correctly that, on the 4th and 17, our defensive brain trust decided to cover the #3 receiver in the SEC with a backup LB? Wilbur Marshall in his prime may have succeeded but a backup ?

 

[GR8 2B]

Didn't watch mizzou game as Grandson decided that was a good day to get hitched.
Anyway did I read correctly that, on the 4th and 17, our defensive brain trust decided to cover the #3 receiver in the SEC with a backup LB? Wilbur Marshall in his prime may have succeeded but a backup ?

Congrats on your Grandson's marriage.

 

[GatorFL]

He lost me when he said our DL was fine. I think this is the weakest DLs I’ve ever seen at Florida. Stop giving QBs 10 seconds to throw the ball and a lot of the secondary issues are mitigated

 

[GatorJ]

Just a question. How do we know the coaching staff didn't assign a spy.

I’m sure they did. Our lbs just suck.

 

[Bernardo de la Paz]

Depends on your data.
You portend that one set is better than the other but you should also acknowledge that BOTH sets are skewed as they're easily manipulated.

For instance, you believe recruiting stars are more indicative of true talent, but which service? They're not all consistent.

I did not say one set of data is "better" than other. I think the player grade is great data. I just said it's not a measure of talent. If you don't believe me, maybe you'll take their word for it:

PFF Player Grades | PFF

The PFF philosophy, our process and how to interpret PFF Player Grades.

www.pff.com

"It’s important to understand that PFF is not grading talent in these numbers, rather strictly performance on the field. Talented players can have bad games, runs, or even seasons, and often players without nearly as much talent can put together impressive play on the field. We are not necessarily telling you who the best players are. Our rankings are more of a performance evaluation and a reflection of how efficiently a player made plays in the time he was on the field."

The grades reflect what happened on the field regardless of the talent of the players involved. If the coaching staff does a good job anticipating what the opposition will do, focuses the practice reps on the right things, and puts the players in position to be successful, they are going to end up getting higher grades. In other words, the grades are influenced by the production of the coaching staff. It's simply a logical fallacy to use the grades as an indicator of talent to defend the coaching staff.

In short, it says we're young, inexperienced and should wait till next year.

The post didn't actually say either of those things. I'm not saying those aren't true, just not discussed.

 

[Bernardo de la Paz]

I get what you’re saying, but it sounds like you’re conflating talent and physical measurements. I mean that’s what the recruiting rankings primarily take into account along with the ability to produce results at the HS level.

What the author points out is deficiencies across multiple years. Coaching may be a factor and he addresses that, but it’s hard to argue that Jason Marshall’s physical talent can overcome his lack of mental talent.

Jason Marshall, great example. The post says he graded as a 72.3 in 2021 under Grantham and 64.4 this year.

Is he less talented now than he was as a freshman? Probably not.

Is this staff not doing as good a job prepping him for games? Maybe the scheme not as good a fit? Or maybe the scheme is more complex? Maybe he's being asked to do more to cover for the safeties?

The post essentially describes Marshall as a Vanderbilt level player and considered "a relegated backup." While he's not living up to the first round billings he was getting before the season, he's still likely to get drafted and play in the NFL. He's a talented guy. He's also a guy playing under his third DC in three years.

Just look at some of the other grade swings. Examples, VHIII drops from a 93.3 in 2014 to a 76.4 in 2015. Gardner-Johnson goes from a 69.6 in 2017 to 90.1 in 2018. Heck Keanu Neal has two grades - a 64.0 and a 67.5. He was a first round pick and went to a pro bowl.

I'm not saying the player grades aren't good data, I'm just saying that they aren't meant to measure talent and shouldn't be used that way.

 

[gardnerwebbgator]

Excuses excuses. Coach up what you have, which the fat soy boy cheerleader can’t do.

 

[TN G8tr]

Good take on the D, Thanks for sharing @GatorJ

 

[Homer J]

Didn't watch mizzou game as Grandson decided that was a good day to get hitched.
Anyway did I read correctly that, on the 4th and 17, our defensive brain trust decided to cover the #3 receiver in the SEC with a backup LB? Wilbur Marshall in his prime may have succeeded but a backup ?

Not the #3 WR - one of the top WRs in the league that wears #3.

 

[Homer J]

He lost me when he said our DL was fine. I think this is the weakest DLs I’ve ever seen at Florida. Stop giving QBs 10 seconds to throw the ball and a lot of the secondary issues are mitigated

You didn’t watch Gator football last year, did you?

 

[fischerwood]

I've always tried to be a proponent of leadership on the field. Mertz shows it on offense, ?defense not so much after key injuries. Next man up works only with talent AND willingness to SHOW UP.
That's all I got....GO GATORS...

 

[Spurdog98]

Jason Marshall, great example. The post says he graded as a 72.3 in 2021 under Grantham and 64.4 this year.

Is he less talented now than he was as a freshman? Probably not.

Is this staff not doing as good a job prepping him for games? Maybe the scheme not as good a fit? Or maybe the scheme is more complex? Maybe he's being asked to do more to cover for the safeties?

The post essentially describes Marshall as a Vanderbilt level player and considered "a relegated backup." While he's not living up to the first round billings he was getting before the season, he's still likely to get drafted and play in the NFL. He's a talented guy. He's also a guy playing under his third DC in three years.

Just look at some of the other grade swings. Examples, VHIII drops from a 93.3 in 2014 to a 76.4 in 2015. Gardner-Johnson goes from a 69.6 in 2017 to 90.1 in 2018. Heck Keanu Neal has two grades - a 64.0 and a 67.5. He was a first round pick and went to a pro bowl.

I'm not saying the player grades aren't good data, I'm just saying that they aren't meant to measure talent and shouldn't be used that way.

I noticed this as well with some of the past secondary players. The drops have to be attributable to the instability with the defensive staff and all the changes, particularly if the changes aren't an upgrade. When Stoops tookover in 96 we got better quick on defense same for Quinn but then again we were going after proven assistants. Even with Strong we had decent numbers. Going for Fat Todd was a shyt show from the get go and everyone new it. I'm not ready to put AA in that category but truth of the matter is this league has some really good, seasoned OC's and they are going to pick you apart if your scheme isn't solid, particularly if they have the players to do it and most do. Hell look at what UK did to us and yet their season after has been mediocre at best. We can't continue with this on the job training mentality with coaching hires.

 

[GatorFL]

You didn’t watch Gator football last year, did you?

This year is worse.

 

[TheDouglas78]

I noticed this as well with some of the past secondary players. The drops have to be attributable to the instability with the defensive staff and all the changes, particularly if the changes aren't an upgrade. When Stoops tookover in 96 we got better quick on defense same for Quinn but then again we were going after proven assistants. Even with Strong we had decent numbers. Going for Fat Todd was a shyt show from the get go and everyone new it. I'm not ready to put AA in that category but truth of the matter is this league has some really good, seasoned OC's and they are going to pick you apart if your scheme isn't solid, particularly if they have the players to do it and most do. Hell look at what UK did to us and yet their season after has been mediocre at best. We can't continue with this on the job training mentality with coaching hires.

Every position in our coaching staff is an on the job training....

 

[Silverback Gator]

I've always tried to be a proponent of leadership on the field. Mertz shows it on offense, ?defense not so much after key injuries. Next man up works only with talent AND willingness to SHOW UP.

How much of a difference would leadership make? The MLB might line up the front seven, okay. But how much more could leadership improve instinct and effort? I honestly do not know. Are players choosing to not do what is asked, expected, reasonable? It seems more they do not know what to do in-game.

 

[FireFoley]

What frustrated me was calling a blanket zone against a team with two exceptional WRs and a dynamic TE when we know our team struggles in that defensive set. Three guys stood around two WRs, all with their hands up trying to figure out who erred... Personally, I would have preferred a gutsier move—bringing in a 5-man speed pressure (involving Princely, Searcey, Sapp, Banks, and Collins) and playing man with two safeties bracketed to maintain coverage. Force the QB to make an incredibly accurate throw, essentially make them beat you. I was disappointed that we resorted to a strategy in which we're deficient,


I copied the above from the article. I criticized that immediately when the play happened. I am okay with not rushing 5, but as mentioned being in a blanket zone was nothing short of pure Stoopidity. Man principles at 15 yards with doubles beyond the line to gain. Make them beat you by forcing them to make a catch while having to fight for the ball. Not just by finding a soft spot.

 

[alcoholica]

Jason Marshall, great example. The post says he graded as a 72.3 in 2021 under Grantham and 64.4 this year.

Is he less talented now than he was as a freshman? Probably not.

Is this staff not doing as good a job prepping him for games? Maybe the scheme not as good a fit? Or maybe the scheme is more complex? Maybe he's being asked to do more to cover for the safeties?

The post essentially describes Marshall as a Vanderbilt level player and considered "a relegated backup." While he's not living up to the first round billings he was getting before the season, he's still likely to get drafted and play in the NFL. He's a talented guy. He's also a guy playing under his third DC in three years.

Just look at some of the other grade swings. Examples, VHIII drops from a 93.3 in 2014 to a 76.4 in 2015. Gardner-Johnson goes from a 69.6 in 2017 to 90.1 in 2018. Heck Keanu Neal has two grades - a 64.0 and a 67.5. He was a first round pick and went to a pro bowl.

I'm not saying the player grades aren't good data, I'm just saying that they aren't meant to measure talent and shouldn't be used that way.

i get what you're saying and agree with a lot of it, especially the 3 DC argument.

Keep in mind that VH3 didn't do well in the pros. He was basically peaked out in college, and I forget who he had opposite, scheme etc. From Keanu's stats, he's been pretty average in the NFL, not sure if he's been injured or not. Again tho, draft status is supposed to be heavy on potential (hence Richardson).

I really don't think Marshall will ever make a dent in the pros. His draft stock will hinge on the combine like so many others, but quite frankly, I don't see his mental talent allowing him to play long-term. And he's never lived up to the 5* billing.

Also, keep in mind the one data set is unrealized potential and the other is result based. So maybe the CB's suck because we're getting no pressure. But, it's likely a mix.

 

[B52G8rAC]

Excuses excuses. Coach up what you have, which the fat soy boy cheerleader can’t do.

You know GW, take the gator suffix off your moniker. CBN is the best Gator football coach we have today.