I don't disagree with your statement. The bottom line is that overall...stars=wins/titles There is a ton of empirical evidence that backs this truth up. Are there outliers? Sure but every national title winner since 00 has had at least one top 5 class in the preceding 4 years. Most of the winners had 2 or more. I never understood the whole "star gazer" thing when the facts are right in front of you.
I have some agreement with you, but I think what you are missing here is that causality runs in both direction with recruiting ranking by self appointed experts.
For example, lets say UF wins 10 games this year like I think UF should. UF of course will probably be miles away from winning the playoffs as UF will not have a QB with experience in making decisions in big close games, will not have such experience anyway on its roster nor on its coaching staff. Still UF will have a higher ranked class in part because UF will attract higher ranked recruits AND in part because the recruits this staff like will be higher ranked.
So if a year or two down the line this staff wins the playoffs, they too will likely have had a top five class. Again some of that will be because of getting better players and some of that will be because the players UF likes will be ranked higher because they are liked by what will then be perceived as a top program.
To me the bottom line is that no amount of recruiting can make up for substandard coaching, but kids can be coached up some.