- Sep 8, 2014
- 25,445
- 59,412
(The Captain Obvious article of the week):
Florida Gators offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier needs to change his approach in 2017
https://www.seccountry.com/florida/...ussmeier-needs-to-change-his-approach-in-2017
The addition of graduate transfer QB Malik Zaire sparked a debate among Florida Gators fans about who should play quarterback in 2017.
I’ve argued – both here and on the most recent Gators Breakdown podcast – that it’s important to get redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks meaningful snaps because the defense isn’t ready for a championship run.
But who starts at quarterback doesn’t matter if he isn’t in position to succeed. And after taking a closer look at the resume of offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, I have serious concerns about whether he will put them in that position.
Statistical analysis of Doug Nussmeier as an offensive coordinator
On initial inspection, Nussmeier’s resume is impressive. He mentored QB Jake Locker as the offensive coordinator at Washington and won a national championship with Alabama serving in the same capacity.
But looking further into his record, there doesn’t appear to be much evidence that Nussmeier makes offenses better.
Offensive statistics the year prior to, during, and the year after Doug Nussmeier was offensive coordinator. (Will Miles/SEC Country)
The above chart shows that in gory detail. Offenses at Fresno State, Michigan and Florida all got worse under Nussmeier. The declines were enormous at Michigan and Florida. In three of his four stops, offenses improved when Nussmeier left. The one offense that stayed at about the same level was the 2014 Alabama team that made the College Football Playoff.
The bright spots on the chart are the significant improvement at Washington and slight improvement at Alabama. But Steve Sarkisian was the head coach at Washington and was the lead play-caller. And at Alabama, Nussmeier inherited QB AJ McCarron and four offensive linemen who have all played in the NFL, two of who were first-round draft picks (Chance Warmack, D.J. Fluker).
Gators coach Jim McElwain likes to talk about being proud of what you put on film. Gators fans have seen the quality of the offense on film the previous two years. And the stats indicate that offenses have performed better both before and after Nussmeier’s arrival than while he was in charge.
Statistical analysis of Doug Nussmeier’s effect on quarterbacks
Looking further into his record, quarterbacks haven’t fared much better. Nussmeier has inherited four quarterbacks in his five stops as coordinator. Only McCarron has improved, and the other three have seen significant reductions in their productivity.
In only one of these cases (Florida) did the head coach change prior to Nussmeier’s arrival, so we can’t blame program instability for the statistics.
Quarterback play the year prior to and the first year of Doug Nussmeier being offensive coordinator. (Will Miles/SEC Country)
McCarron improved under Nussmeier. I happen to believe that has more to do with Alabama coach Nick Saban than Nussmeier. But if you’re going to judge the rest of his record, you have to acknowledge that his statistical record at Alabama was excellent with a pro-style running game and pocket passer.
In the other three stops, excellent is not the word I would use to describe the QB play.
In 2008, Tom Brandstater, a dark-horse candidate for the Heisman Trophy, took a significant step back from his ’07 production. But that was Pat Hill’s offense, so perhaps Nussmeier wasn’t to blame?
But in 2013, Brady Hoke and Michigan let go of offensive coordinator Al Borges because his offense had grown stale and predictable. The Wolverines brought in Nussmeier to revitalize the offense. Led by quarterback Devin Gardner, it tanked (NCAA rank: 111th). Gardner regressed as a passer, ran less often and ran less effectively (483 yards in ’13, 258 in ’14).
And Florida fans may forget, but Treon Harris played pretty well in his debut season under Will Muschamp and Brent Pease (QB rating of 146.2). He wasn’t asked to do much, but he did rush for 332 yards, and topped 40 rushing yards four times. Under Nussmeier, Harris never surpassed 40 yards rushing and ended the season with 239 yards rushing.
It’s the rushing yardage at the last two stops that concern me the most about Nussmeier. These stops have coincided with a time where college football offenses have changed. Even Saban has altered his approach, embracing dual-threat QBs and spread principles.
Nussmeier should have held an advantage at Michigan and Florida, because he inherited dual-threat QBs. Instead, he had them sit in the pocket and try to pick apart defenses. This shows an inability to adjust to personnel. Combine that with the predictability for which I’ve previously criticized Nussmeier, and you have a recipe for disaster.
Make-or-break year for Nussmeier at Florida
The performance of the Gators offense the last two years has earned Nussmeier a pretty short rope. If the offense continues to struggle this season, he may not be back in 2018. And while Florida fans have been waiting for a fully-developed Feleipe Franks to take the reins, Nussmeier’s track record with QBs makes me doubt that Franks is ready to take over.
That ensures that the offense is going to ride with Malik Zaire as the starter in ’17. That would be encouraging if Doug Nussmeier weren’t his offensive coordinator.
In Notre Dame’s win against LSU in the 2014 Music City Bowl, Zaire rushed for 96 yards on 22 carries. His passing numbers were efficient, but he wasn’t asked to do much (15 attempts). Zaire did light up Texas to open up the ’15 season through the air, but then went back to the same formula before breaking his ankle against Virginia (7-of-18 for 115 yards, 10 rushes for 87 yards).
Zaire is a dual-threat QB. And while he needs to be able to deliver the ball to open receivers, his formula for success will include running the ball effectively. And that is the exact formula that Nussmeier hasn’t embraced at his last two stops.
Many Gators fans will point to completion percentage, passing yardage or interceptions as the key indicator of QB success in ’17. I’m inclined to believe that instead the key stat is going to be QB rushing attempts.
College football has changed. Nussmeier needs to prove that he can change with it.
---
Florida Gators offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier needs to change his approach in 2017
https://www.seccountry.com/florida/...ussmeier-needs-to-change-his-approach-in-2017
The addition of graduate transfer QB Malik Zaire sparked a debate among Florida Gators fans about who should play quarterback in 2017.
I’ve argued – both here and on the most recent Gators Breakdown podcast – that it’s important to get redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks meaningful snaps because the defense isn’t ready for a championship run.
But who starts at quarterback doesn’t matter if he isn’t in position to succeed. And after taking a closer look at the resume of offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, I have serious concerns about whether he will put them in that position.
Statistical analysis of Doug Nussmeier as an offensive coordinator
On initial inspection, Nussmeier’s resume is impressive. He mentored QB Jake Locker as the offensive coordinator at Washington and won a national championship with Alabama serving in the same capacity.
But looking further into his record, there doesn’t appear to be much evidence that Nussmeier makes offenses better.
Offensive statistics the year prior to, during, and the year after Doug Nussmeier was offensive coordinator. (Will Miles/SEC Country)
The above chart shows that in gory detail. Offenses at Fresno State, Michigan and Florida all got worse under Nussmeier. The declines were enormous at Michigan and Florida. In three of his four stops, offenses improved when Nussmeier left. The one offense that stayed at about the same level was the 2014 Alabama team that made the College Football Playoff.
The bright spots on the chart are the significant improvement at Washington and slight improvement at Alabama. But Steve Sarkisian was the head coach at Washington and was the lead play-caller. And at Alabama, Nussmeier inherited QB AJ McCarron and four offensive linemen who have all played in the NFL, two of who were first-round draft picks (Chance Warmack, D.J. Fluker).
Gators coach Jim McElwain likes to talk about being proud of what you put on film. Gators fans have seen the quality of the offense on film the previous two years. And the stats indicate that offenses have performed better both before and after Nussmeier’s arrival than while he was in charge.
Statistical analysis of Doug Nussmeier’s effect on quarterbacks
Looking further into his record, quarterbacks haven’t fared much better. Nussmeier has inherited four quarterbacks in his five stops as coordinator. Only McCarron has improved, and the other three have seen significant reductions in their productivity.
In only one of these cases (Florida) did the head coach change prior to Nussmeier’s arrival, so we can’t blame program instability for the statistics.
Quarterback play the year prior to and the first year of Doug Nussmeier being offensive coordinator. (Will Miles/SEC Country)
McCarron improved under Nussmeier. I happen to believe that has more to do with Alabama coach Nick Saban than Nussmeier. But if you’re going to judge the rest of his record, you have to acknowledge that his statistical record at Alabama was excellent with a pro-style running game and pocket passer.
In the other three stops, excellent is not the word I would use to describe the QB play.
In 2008, Tom Brandstater, a dark-horse candidate for the Heisman Trophy, took a significant step back from his ’07 production. But that was Pat Hill’s offense, so perhaps Nussmeier wasn’t to blame?
But in 2013, Brady Hoke and Michigan let go of offensive coordinator Al Borges because his offense had grown stale and predictable. The Wolverines brought in Nussmeier to revitalize the offense. Led by quarterback Devin Gardner, it tanked (NCAA rank: 111th). Gardner regressed as a passer, ran less often and ran less effectively (483 yards in ’13, 258 in ’14).
And Florida fans may forget, but Treon Harris played pretty well in his debut season under Will Muschamp and Brent Pease (QB rating of 146.2). He wasn’t asked to do much, but he did rush for 332 yards, and topped 40 rushing yards four times. Under Nussmeier, Harris never surpassed 40 yards rushing and ended the season with 239 yards rushing.
It’s the rushing yardage at the last two stops that concern me the most about Nussmeier. These stops have coincided with a time where college football offenses have changed. Even Saban has altered his approach, embracing dual-threat QBs and spread principles.
Nussmeier should have held an advantage at Michigan and Florida, because he inherited dual-threat QBs. Instead, he had them sit in the pocket and try to pick apart defenses. This shows an inability to adjust to personnel. Combine that with the predictability for which I’ve previously criticized Nussmeier, and you have a recipe for disaster.
Make-or-break year for Nussmeier at Florida
The performance of the Gators offense the last two years has earned Nussmeier a pretty short rope. If the offense continues to struggle this season, he may not be back in 2018. And while Florida fans have been waiting for a fully-developed Feleipe Franks to take the reins, Nussmeier’s track record with QBs makes me doubt that Franks is ready to take over.
That ensures that the offense is going to ride with Malik Zaire as the starter in ’17. That would be encouraging if Doug Nussmeier weren’t his offensive coordinator.
In Notre Dame’s win against LSU in the 2014 Music City Bowl, Zaire rushed for 96 yards on 22 carries. His passing numbers were efficient, but he wasn’t asked to do much (15 attempts). Zaire did light up Texas to open up the ’15 season through the air, but then went back to the same formula before breaking his ankle against Virginia (7-of-18 for 115 yards, 10 rushes for 87 yards).
Zaire is a dual-threat QB. And while he needs to be able to deliver the ball to open receivers, his formula for success will include running the ball effectively. And that is the exact formula that Nussmeier hasn’t embraced at his last two stops.
Many Gators fans will point to completion percentage, passing yardage or interceptions as the key indicator of QB success in ’17. I’m inclined to believe that instead the key stat is going to be QB rushing attempts.
College football has changed. Nussmeier needs to prove that he can change with it.
---
