- Sep 8, 2014
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Phil Steele's summer college football betting guide
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER
While we're still a ways from college football season, it's never too early to start looking at where the betting value lies for the upcoming season.
Phil Steele covers all angles in this four-part betting guide, giving you the best summer bets to make.
Against-the-spread picks for five marquee college football matchups
With the college football season drawing closer by the day, we're already busy thinking about the biggest matchups that epitomize what makes the sport an important part of our fall schedules.
The fine folks over at South Point in Las Vegas have been kind enough to post lines on 66 marquee games from Sept. 9 through the end of the year to add to our anticipation of the season ahead.
I've examined these numbers and will give you my five best selections. These selections factor in not only who I think will win the game, but also some games that should provide nice value by the time the game rolls around.
Wyoming Cowboys vs. Oregon Ducks (-4)
Saturday, Sept. 16
In the only meeting between these two teams in 2014, Oregon won 48-14. The Ducks figure to be an under-the-radar team this season and are 11-5 in their first game of the season away from Autzen Stadium since 2001.
Wyoming has faced four Power 5 teams under coach Craig Bohl and lost those games by 32 points per game. Wyoming does have quarterback Josh Allen, who is definitely on the radar for the NFL draft, and the Cowboys benefited from bowl practices while Oregon did not.
The Ducks have huge edges on offense (No. 3 versus No. 87) and special teams (No. 19 versus No. 119) and should get the road win more comfortably than expected.
The pick: Oregon -4
Colorado Buffaloes vs. UCLA Bruins (-4.5)
Saturday, Sept. 30
UCLA is 9-3 in this series but last season had its five-game win streak snapped. Without Josh Rosen at quarterback, the Bruins entered the fourth quarter tied at 10, but the Buffaloes added a field goal and punt-return touchdown to put the game away. With Rosen in 2015, UCLA led Colorado 21-6 at the half and won 35-31 in Pasadena.
Last year was a down season for the Bruins with a banged-up team versus a Colorado squad that was very experienced and on its way to the Pac-12 title game. Now, UCLA is more experience and will be at home against the Buffaloes with Rosen back and probably will be a touchdown or more favorite when the game arrives.
The pick: UCLA -4.5
Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida State Seminoles (-6.5)
Saturday, Oct. 21
Florida State is playing for revenge after getting destroyed on the road in an embarrassing performance in 2016 -- the final score was 63-20 and it could have been worse. Last time these teams met in Tallahassee, Florida State rolled to a 41-21 win. Florida State lost only three lettermen from its defense and gets back safety Derwin James, who is one of the nation's best but missed almost all of 2016.
Louisville averaged 49.6 points in its first 10 games last season but only 19 over its last three games. Other programs might have found the key to stopping Lamar Jackson. Revenge games are often overrated but not this one: The Seminoles will get their payback.
The pick: Florida State -6.5
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-8.5)
Saturday, Oct. 28
Last season, Ohio State was in control of this game but a blocked field-goal attempt returned for a touchdown was the deciding score that cost the Buckeyes a shot at the Big Ten title. The higher-ranked team is 23-3 in the series, and the last time the game was played in Columbus, Ohio State won 38-10.
The Buckeyes blew a 21-7 lead last season and should not have let up. They get this season's game at home. Ohio State is 10-0 since 2010 when seeking revenge from a previous season's loss, with the average win by 13 points. I expect the Buckeyes to be a double-digit favorite by game time.
The pick: Ohio State -8.5
Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-3)
Saturday, Oct. 28
Florida has won the past three in the series by 18.6 points per game and has a solid team returning this season. The Gators won the SEC East each of the past two seasons despite losing their quarterback to injury in the first half of each season and having a below-average offense during the second half. This season, they have a much-improved offense with three capable quarterbacks surrounded by talent, their usual solid defense and my No. 3-rated special-teams unit.
I feel the Gators will come into this game at 7-0. Georgia has road trips to Notre Dame and Tennessee and might have a loss or two. That will have the Gators rightfully favored in late October, so grab the points right now while they're available since I think Florida will win this matchup.
The pick: Florida +3
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER
While we're still a ways from college football season, it's never too early to start looking at where the betting value lies for the upcoming season.
Phil Steele covers all angles in this four-part betting guide, giving you the best summer bets to make.
Against-the-spread picks for five marquee college football matchups
With the college football season drawing closer by the day, we're already busy thinking about the biggest matchups that epitomize what makes the sport an important part of our fall schedules.
The fine folks over at South Point in Las Vegas have been kind enough to post lines on 66 marquee games from Sept. 9 through the end of the year to add to our anticipation of the season ahead.
I've examined these numbers and will give you my five best selections. These selections factor in not only who I think will win the game, but also some games that should provide nice value by the time the game rolls around.
Wyoming Cowboys vs. Oregon Ducks (-4)
Saturday, Sept. 16
In the only meeting between these two teams in 2014, Oregon won 48-14. The Ducks figure to be an under-the-radar team this season and are 11-5 in their first game of the season away from Autzen Stadium since 2001.
Wyoming has faced four Power 5 teams under coach Craig Bohl and lost those games by 32 points per game. Wyoming does have quarterback Josh Allen, who is definitely on the radar for the NFL draft, and the Cowboys benefited from bowl practices while Oregon did not.
The Ducks have huge edges on offense (No. 3 versus No. 87) and special teams (No. 19 versus No. 119) and should get the road win more comfortably than expected.
The pick: Oregon -4
Colorado Buffaloes vs. UCLA Bruins (-4.5)
Saturday, Sept. 30
UCLA is 9-3 in this series but last season had its five-game win streak snapped. Without Josh Rosen at quarterback, the Bruins entered the fourth quarter tied at 10, but the Buffaloes added a field goal and punt-return touchdown to put the game away. With Rosen in 2015, UCLA led Colorado 21-6 at the half and won 35-31 in Pasadena.
Last year was a down season for the Bruins with a banged-up team versus a Colorado squad that was very experienced and on its way to the Pac-12 title game. Now, UCLA is more experience and will be at home against the Buffaloes with Rosen back and probably will be a touchdown or more favorite when the game arrives.
The pick: UCLA -4.5
Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida State Seminoles (-6.5)
Saturday, Oct. 21
Florida State is playing for revenge after getting destroyed on the road in an embarrassing performance in 2016 -- the final score was 63-20 and it could have been worse. Last time these teams met in Tallahassee, Florida State rolled to a 41-21 win. Florida State lost only three lettermen from its defense and gets back safety Derwin James, who is one of the nation's best but missed almost all of 2016.
Louisville averaged 49.6 points in its first 10 games last season but only 19 over its last three games. Other programs might have found the key to stopping Lamar Jackson. Revenge games are often overrated but not this one: The Seminoles will get their payback.
The pick: Florida State -6.5
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-8.5)
Saturday, Oct. 28
Last season, Ohio State was in control of this game but a blocked field-goal attempt returned for a touchdown was the deciding score that cost the Buckeyes a shot at the Big Ten title. The higher-ranked team is 23-3 in the series, and the last time the game was played in Columbus, Ohio State won 38-10.
The Buckeyes blew a 21-7 lead last season and should not have let up. They get this season's game at home. Ohio State is 10-0 since 2010 when seeking revenge from a previous season's loss, with the average win by 13 points. I expect the Buckeyes to be a double-digit favorite by game time.
The pick: Ohio State -8.5
Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-3)
Saturday, Oct. 28
Florida has won the past three in the series by 18.6 points per game and has a solid team returning this season. The Gators won the SEC East each of the past two seasons despite losing their quarterback to injury in the first half of each season and having a below-average offense during the second half. This season, they have a much-improved offense with three capable quarterbacks surrounded by talent, their usual solid defense and my No. 3-rated special-teams unit.
I feel the Gators will come into this game at 7-0. Georgia has road trips to Notre Dame and Tennessee and might have a loss or two. That will have the Gators rightfully favored in late October, so grab the points right now while they're available since I think Florida will win this matchup.
The pick: Florida +3
I'd be ecstatic.
