No, not every team that finishes in the top 5 w/o winning the NC chokes, that's just absurd. I also don't care if most every other preseason poll looks the same, it doesn't mean they are correct. You want to see what choking/underperforming looks like...see FSU this past seaso, returning almost their entire starting lineup INCLUDING their senior QB, preseason #4 and they lose 3 regular season games...2 in the first 5 weeks of the season, that's choking/underperforming. 2016 Oklahoma, preseason #3 and start the season 1-2, out of the NC hunt before September ended. How about 2015 USC, preseason #8 and they roll to an 8-6 record. Huge fail. 2014 Oklahoma, preseason #4, finished 8-4 and unranked. 2012 USC, preseason #1, finish 7-6 and unranked. 2011 Oklahoma, preseason #1, 3 regular season losses, not even in the mix for the NC, out of it in week 10 and finished the season ranked 15/16. These are a few examples of teams that have underperformed. I could go on but hopefully you get the picture. It's more than just W's and L's as you seem to believe. All of these teams consistently pull in a ton of top flight talent but shat the bed RELATIVE to talent level, returning talent and expectations.
To answer your hypothetical about USC, no they wouldn't be overrated if they win the PAC 12 and lose the NC game. They would most likely finish the season ranked #2, maybe #3, and would actually be slightly underrated in the preseason poll, in hindsight, as the preseason #4. The problem is they most likely won't play for the NC and won't finish with 2 losses with one being in the championship game.
While I haven't put a top 10 together yet (and I will in due time), I'm wise enough to know from years of experience that banking on the teams I referenced in my OP is a very risky, and most likely, losing proposition.
