The "never punt" philosophy

ThreatMatrix

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Okeechobee Joe;n264775 said:
Never punting on 4th down is dumb. It needs no explanation. It is call "football" with the emphasis on "foot".

Thank you for your insightful comment. It added so much to the discussion.
 

MJMGator

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Statistics don't win football games. If your defense sucks, then it might be wise to go for it around midfield or better most of the time. Otherwise, it's a pretty stupid way of coaching a football game.
 

CaribGator

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I Would say that it is a total team ability type of decision. Your defense can't stop anybody? Then yea, why bother punting and giving them the ball back. You have a punter that shanks it a lot, has a weak leg, another reason to go for it. Field position is big in the SEC, you don't want to give anybody a short field and an easy 3. But yea, roll the dice more often and let's have some fun.
 

Zambo

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If you have a history of always going for it on 4th down instead of punting, you force the defense to alter the way they defend the field on 3rd down and you alter the way you call the 3rd down play. Anything over 4 yards on 3rd is traditionally an almost automatic pass play...it would not be so if you knew you were going for it no matter what. Just look at how successful teams usually are doing the two minute drill as compared to the rest of the game....since they know they're in four down territory with every possession they can call a more unpredictable set of plays.

Personally I think the guy is very smart and his strategy wins that team a bunch of games that they wouldn't win if coached normally. However, at the SEC or pro level, he could never do it. The second he lost a game his critics would be out for blood and blame it all on his faulty strategy.
 

Zambo

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MJMGator;n264797 said:
Statistics don't win football games.
Since no coach can control the outcome of any single play, the only thing you can do is increase your odds of success...i.e. statistics. Statistics are what dictates just about every play call in every game.
 

MJMGator

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Zambo;n264967 said:
Since no coach can control the outcome of any single play, the only thing you can do is increase your odds of success...i.e. statistics. Statistics are what dictates just about every play call in every game.

If it was a sound strategy, many would be doing it. You're basically trying to win games with nothing but offense and saying to hell with playing defense or special teams.
 

MissouriGator

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It's more about knowing your team and having a feel for the game. Going for it on fourth down can change the outcome of the game; it's always a gamble. But the confidence gained or lost is irreplaceable. That's one of the things that separates a good play caller from all the rest--knowing when to make that decision.
 

Instigator

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Interesting that some think this is a better strategy for teams with bad defenses. I think the opposite.

If your offense struggles maybe they need the extra 25% chance to have success and your strong defense can make up for the times it fails.

We have seen four years of playing it safe with bad offense and good defense. Maybe more aggressive (not suggesting to never punt) would give us a few more wins?
 

TheDouglas78

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lagator;n264772 said:
SOS used to go for it on 4th at a much higher percentage than the other SEC coaches during his Florida reign. He didn't need any statistics other than saying something like "if we use 4 downs while the opponent only uses 3 that's a pretty big advantage for our offense".

Spurrier is the best in game coach in the nation, and was in the 90's as well. No coach has read the in game emotion, conditions, etc.. better than Spurrier.
 

joeblow

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Instigator;n264713 said:
HBO Sports ran a segment on a high school coach who very rarely punts the ball. He had all sorts of statistics that showed the risk vs reward of "giving up possessions" favored going for it on 4th down, no matter the field position. He also kicks onside kicks most of the time using wild formations. It was a very interesting segment and the bottom line was that he is a winning coach and several NFL teams have contacted him to learn his strategies. Professional statisticians even backed up his philosophy

While I don't think his philosophy applied to the same extreme could work in the SEC, and the numbers don't consider human emotion/momentum, I do think we could be much more aggressive with 4th down attempts. Not only does it make sense to try for points whenever possible, it gives the offense a much needed infusion of confidence. In watching the LSU game replay from last year, Muschamp had 2 opportunities to go for it on the opponents side of the field and went with the safe option (shocking, I know). It was sickening even though you felt that we had little chance of getting the needed yards with our junk offense.

I hope Mac will be much more aggressive, even if it means bad field position. I just don't know if all gator fans have the stomach for such risk? Has anyone seen his tendencies on 4th downs from CSU?

Go Gators!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I am not a fan of Muschamp, and agreed with the decision to fire him because he didn't win enough games, but this is getting ridiculous with the questioning of now going for it on fourth down, etc. It's like the criticism directed at him for throwing the ball on every down against FSU at the end of the game. It's not like UF was able to run the ball a lick against FSU. Now this. How about him being given credit for running a fake punt against Georgia? That was the key play in the game, and without that bold play call, I think UF would have lost to Georgia. That one call turned around the game and was the spark that led to victory. I know he is despised by many of you, but it's getting to the point of being at ludicrous speed with the "expert" wisdom of hindsight. UF didn't start it's decline with the hire of Muschamp. It began with the departure of Tebow, something that is totally forgotten it seems.
 

Zambo

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MJMGator;n264982 said:
If it was a sound strategy, many would be doing it. You're basically trying to win games with nothing but offense and saying to hell with playing defense or special teams.

The world is chock full of people who do stuff simply because that is what they know or have been taught, and they do it despite statistics saying that is is smarter to do otherwise.
 

URGatorBait

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joeblow;n265175 said:
I am not a fan of Muschamp, and agreed with the decision to fire him because he didn't win enough games, but this is getting ridiculous with the questioning of now going for it on fourth down, etc. It's like the criticism directed at him for throwing the ball on every down against FSU at the end of the game. It's not like UF was able to run the ball a lick against FSU. Now this. How about him being given credit for running a fake punt against Georgia? That was the key play in the game, and without that bold play call, I think UF would have lost to Georgia. That one call turned around the game and was the spark that led to victory. I know he is despised by many of you, but it's getting to the point of being at ludicrous speed with the "expert" wisdom of hindsight. UF didn't start it's decline with the hire of Muschamp. It began with the departure of Tebow, something that is totally forgotten it seems.

Who is this "you" that you speak of?
 

Zambo

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MJMGator

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Zambo;n265498 said:
The world is chock full of people who do stuff simply because that is what they know or have been taught, and they do it despite statistics saying that is is smarter to do otherwise.

Still doesn't mean it's a sound strategy. Get a job coaching and go make millions like this guy has. :lol:
 

Zambo

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MJMGator;n265543 said:
Still doesn't mean it's a sound strategy. Get a job coaching and go make millions like this guy has. :lol:

Nobody said that going for it on 4th down all the time was all you need to do to win a football game. Its a discussion about strategy is all. You still need to make plays.
 

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