Truth Takes: Charlotte Preview 2023

GatorTruth133

Alethea
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Hello Everybody!

This game against the Charlotte 49ers may tell us a lot about our team. It will tell us how we handle success. Players and Coaches have said the practices this week have been unacceptable. Hopefully, that is a hiccup and we will be able to turn it on against Charlotte. I’m not saying that we will lose, far from it, but if we aren’t focused, that’s how we get into games against teams like USF’s terrible 1-11 team from last year or losing to Vandy a week after killing Carolina. I don’t think that happens, but they did lead Maryland 14-9 at the half before losing 38-20. We are much better than Maryland, but the point is the same, if we don’t focus we might let them hang around longer than they should.

On offense, 3 of 5 starting OL are back-ups. It is good to see our back-ups will be getting plenty of reps and I hope that the missing starters (Kingsley nursing his injury and Mazzccua and George suspended for the first half) aren’t missed and we don’t see them Saturday. If we are blowing Charlotte out like we should, I don’t see a reason to play the suspended players in the second half and risk potential injury. I’d like to continue to get young guys more reps and hopefully, build a little more depth.

The biggest thing I want to see from the offense is work on the downfield passing game. Yes, I really have counted this myself and 33 of Mertz’s 64 completions (51.6%) have been at or behind the LOS. That doesn’t include the 1—4 yards downfield completions. PFF had 27 completions behind the LOS (it counts behind and then 0-9 for depth of passing). Don’t get me wrong, it has mostly worked, but the question is how will that volume behind the LOS work against the better defenses down the road like UK, UGA, LSU, and Mizzou? Since we have this game against what should be a cupcake, let’s work on the downfield passing game. I’m not just talking deep, I’m talking 5-20 yards depth. Mertz has completed 51 of his 64 (79.7%) completions 9 or less yards downfield. There is a lot to be said for how good he’s been so far, but let’s put more on tape that might ease tougher defenses for him down the road.

With the loss of Tre Wilson, I’d love to see Mizell and Jean getting more reps and utilizing their speed more. I’m glad to see Boardingham is starting as from what I’ve seen he brings new athleticism dynamics to the TE room that desperately needs it. It may also help some of that downfield passing game.

On defense, I expect to see both QB’s, former Gators QB Jalon Jones and Trexler Ivey. In the Maryland game Jones started well enough, but was benched for Ivey. Jones is the 49ers leading rusher while Ivey seems to be their better passer by a wide margin with a 163.7 passer rating according to ESPN. I want to continue to see the defensive fundamentals like maintaining edges and gap integrity. Jones has 196 of the 49ers 433 rushing yards on the year and only 1 running back has 100 rushing yards for the season and just barely over that mark through three games. That tells me we should not have to worry about their running game.

If the Gators come out focused and take care of business, it’s another good barometer of change for this team and shows an improved ability to handle success. There is opportunity knocking as the SEC looks as a whole to not be as good this year as advertised. As of now, all the teams looked flawed, including UGA whose offense limped in the first half against a Carolina team that lost a lot of its offensive gameplan with Wells’ injury. Many thought UF’s D could jump top 50, but currently at top 10 and not too many teams that have shown dynamic offenses thus far on the horizon, there is opportunity to seize. We can both acknowledge this defense was better than we thought it could be while recognizing some teams at this point don’t quite appear to be as dangerous as we previously thought. None of that matters though if the Gators cannot Seize the Opportunity before them. That begins with showing they can handle success against Charlotte on Saturday.

Go Gators!
 

Altitude Gator

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Great preview.

What I want to see more than anything against an outmatched opponent is focus and intensity. We have lacked that for many years against inferior opponents. We had it against McNeese - but that was coming off a bad loss. I want to see it coming of a good win. That will tell me we have turned a corner - even if we don't achieve all the success this year - it will show significant progress towards becoming a great program again.
 

Silverback Gator

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Yes, will be disappointing if Napier cannot manage or create downfield pass game. Against the better teams on our schedule it could look like a dink n dunk and the faster defenses would likely stuff the behind the LOS plays. Looking forward to the next four games.
 

TN G8tr

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@GatorTruth133 good writeup.

I think you'll see some of the intermediate passing game that you're looking for, but with some of the backups in look for a heavy dose of the run game. Defensively, stick with what they've been doing.

With this game I like the fact that a lot of the younger players are starting and getting that PT. I am more concerned about seeing a workman type approach, come out and handle an inferior opponent, and just take care of business. To me handling the success is doing just that, play a clean game, and just insert your will from the start. If that means a 41-3 ish score, so be it. With this team and the clock rules, don't see a 50-60ish type game unless a lot of turnovers with scores.

But in all, just take the next step and build on it. This young team is learning how to play. Now, learn how to handle success.
 

wrpgator

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Good stuff, Truth! Your Takes get right to the heart of it, unlike the fluff pretentiousness of modern sports “journalism”.
**Sure hope Cover is doing better this week**
 

maheo30

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Yes, will be disappointing if Napier cannot manage or create downfield pass game.
Where CBN is at fault is in not landing a better QB. Now that he has Mertz, he’ll have to adapt. We’ve had guys open in the 10-15 yard range. Mertz checked it down almost every time. That’s who he is as a QB. He is the very definition of a Captain Checkdown. The few times we’ve attempted to go deep CBN had to call a play practically forcing Mertz to throw downfield. I’m not sure there is much a coach can do with a QB like that other than benching him. But, he isn’t going to do that.
 

oxrageous

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Where CBN is at fault is in not landing a better QB. Now that he has Mertz, he’ll have to adapt. We’ve had guys open in the 10-15 yard range. Mertz checked it down almost every time. That’s who he is as a QB. He is the very definition of a Captain Checkdown. The few times we’ve attempted to go deep CBN had to call a play practically forcing Mertz to throw downfield. I’m not sure there is much a coach can do with a QB like that other than benching him. But, he isn’t going to do that.
He's a bridge until we get to Lagway. He was never supposed to be anything more or anything less. You guys act like we signed him to a 10-year contract.

Mertz may not be a QB that wins games for you, but so far he's been one that doesn't lose games for you, either. Before the season, I think we would have taken that.

I think this team with a playmaking QB over the next few years could be absolutely lethal. 2025, 2026 could be SEC-winning seasons.
 

Fodderwing

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He's a bridge until we get to Lagway. He was never supposed to be anything more or anything less. You guys act like we signed him to a 10-year contract.

Mertz may not be a QB that wins games for you, but so far he's been one that doesn't lose games for you, either. Before the season, I think we would have taken that.

Mertz has yet to complete a pass in the flat to a wide open defensive back.
 

GatorTruth133

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Where CBN is at fault is in not landing a better QB. Now that he has Mertz, he’ll have to adapt. We’ve had guys open in the 10-15 yard range. Mertz checked it down almost every time. That’s who he is as a QB. He is the very definition of a Captain Checkdown. The few times we’ve attempted to go deep CBN had to call a play practically forcing Mertz to throw downfield. I’m not sure there is much a coach can do with a QB like that other than benching him. But, he isn’t going to do that.
I'd say its a mixed bag. The two men vert routes while a guy stands in the flat won't change based on QB. Mertz has missed some for sure, but there are also things like practically never running slants on 1st or 2nd down, that we've seen completed on 3rd downs that aren't on Mertz.
He's a bridge until we get to Lagway. He was never supposed to be anything more or anything less. You guys act like we signed him to a 10-year contract.

Mertz may not be a QB that wins games for you, but so far he's been one that doesn't lose games for you, either. Before the season, I think we would have taken that.
Yes, but I think there are passing system issues that simply a QB upgrade doesn't fix. Don't get me wrong, an upgrade is an upgrade, but I think an upgrade in passing system would take it to the next level.
***************************
Should be noted after watching all the completions last night, that a good portion whether jet sweeps, screens or that shovel pass, they were designed that way. That's not to say we haven't checked down or overly checked down at times, but there is some schematics to this side to side game. It has worked decently so far, the concern is when we face better defenses, will it be enough?
 

jdh5484

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I'd say its a mixed bag. The two men vert routes while a guy stands in the flat won't change based on QB. Mertz has missed some for sure, but there are also things like practically never running slants on 1st or 2nd down, that we've seen completed on 3rd downs that aren't on Mertz.

Yes, but I think there are passing system issues that simply a QB upgrade doesn't fix. Don't get me wrong, an upgrade is an upgrade, but I think an upgrade in passing system would take it to the next level.
***************************
Should be noted after watching all the completions last night, that a good portion whether jet sweeps, screens or that shovel pass, they were designed that way. That's not to say we haven't checked down or overly checked down at times, but there is some schematics to this side to side game. It has worked decently so far, the concern is when we face better defenses, will it be enough?
Maybe BN is sandbagging the passing game. Or, the young WRs just aren't capable of running outs, slants, posts and go's. Or they have lead hands, or a combo of the above..

Guess we'll see as the season progresses.

One things for sure: No team will run what the Tenn did in the first half. Expect everyone to stack the box and force us to beat them passing.

Thank goodness it appears the defense took the next step.
 

oxrageous

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I'd say its a mixed bag. The two men vert routes while a guy stands in the flat won't change based on QB. Mertz has missed some for sure, but there are also things like practically never running slants on 1st or 2nd down, that we've seen completed on 3rd downs that aren't on Mertz.

Yes, but I think there are passing system issues that simply a QB upgrade doesn't fix. Don't get me wrong, an upgrade is an upgrade, but I think an upgrade in passing system would take it to the next level.
***************************
Should be noted after watching all the completions last night, that a good portion whether jet sweeps, screens or that shovel pass, they were designed that way. That's not to say we haven't checked down or overly checked down at times, but there is some schematics to this side to side game. It has worked decently so far, the concern is when we face better defenses, will it be enough?
I think with a top QB, we aren’t calling the same plays. I think Napier would LOVE to open it up.
 

Sec14Gator

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**Sure hope Cover is doing better this week**
@cover2 should use this week to rest up like Trey Wilson and Eguakan. Cover is far more important to this board than any of them to the Gators, but still, hopefully the rest of the team steps up takes care of business so we need little post-game analysis.

I'm expecting big things something from many some perhaps one or two of you in his absence.
 

GatorTruth133

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I think with a top QB, we aren’t calling the same plays. I think Napier would LOVE to open it up.
Maybe, but there's a lot that can be done now that we aren't doing. There's the history of 1 top 59 passing offense in 8 years of calling plays. There's schematic things like running 2 WR's at 4 DB's and running guys into the same space or into each others throw windows. I'd love to be wrong, but I'm going to side with the data we have instead of the hope that isn't tethered to data. Doesn't bother me if people have that hope, but we have no evidence to point to to back up that everything is the QB's fault every year he's called plays.
 

oxrageous

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@cover2 should use this week to rest up like Trey Wilson and Eguakan. Cover is far more important to this board than any of them to the Gators, but still, hopefully the rest of the team steps up takes care of business so we need little post-game analysis.

I'm expecting big things something from many some perhaps one or two of you in his absence.
Perhaps you could contribute something.
 

Sec14Gator

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Yes, but I think there are passing system issues that simply a QB upgrade doesn't fix.
I've noted this in another thread, but there is some chance this is what Mertz is or does best and Billy has adjusted to him. I lean towards that is not the case, because if he adjusted that much for the QB's skillset, we would not have tightened the field up on AR all of last year instead of spreading everyone out for larger throwing and running lanes to match his skills.
 

Back Alley Gator

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Maybe, but there's a lot that can be done now that we aren't doing. There's the history of 1 top 59 passing offense in 8 years of calling plays. There's schematic things like running 2 WR's at 4 DB's and running guys into the same space or into each others throw windows. I'd love to be wrong, but I'm going to side with the data we have instead of the hope that isn't tethered to data. Doesn't bother me if people have that hope, but we have no evidence to point to to back up that everything is the QB's fault every year he's called plays.
Based on the offensive analysis from gnfp, I don't get the impression that a wide open passing game is Nappys strong suit. It seems like over 75% of the routes we run are hitches. Not good for explosiveness or for YAC.
 

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