- Oct 5, 2017
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Must Win- requiring a successful or victorious outcome because anything less would negate all preceding efforts.
Is the Kentucky game a must win? I say yes. In short, a loss to the Wildcats, especially after the so-so offensive showing against Charlotte would negate all proceeding momentum the Gators have coming off the Tennessee win.
Let’s get the disgusting stats out of the way. Florida heads to Lexington, Kentucky with a 2-game losing streak to the Wildcats and losing 3 out of 5 after 31 straight victories from 1987 to 2017. Florida is 1-6 away from the Swamp under Billy Napier. The 1 win was at Texas A&M where the Gators trailed at the half to an A&M team that was ravaged by injuries and was missing several key players, including their starting QB, due to a flu outbreak within the program.
If you want to show improvement in year 2, step 1 was the rivalry win and beating a Tennessee team that wasn’t as potent as last year’s team. Step 2 is winning on the road, beating teams you’re more talented than, and beating teams when they stack the box. Kentucky qualifies for all three of those things.
On offense, Florida faces a Kentucky program that has the 20th ranked defense in the nation. They are 61st against the pass and 9th against the run giving up 215.8 and 77.5 yards respectively. Kentucky has not really played anyone, but that also probably means they’ve been relatively vanilla up until this point while Florida has had two games to show its hand. Kentucky being ahead in the games probably means that opposing teams did more passing and less running so the run game might not be as stout as the stats suggest.
I expect Kentucky to stack the box to try and stop Florida’s running game. Tennessee played light boxes in the first half and paid dearly. Kentucky will have learned while looking at the Utah, OSU, and Vandy games. As I wrote Sunday, Etienne needs a large share of the touches as in our last 5 FBS games (excluding bowl) he averages 6.5 ypc while Johnson averages 3.5 ypc. I expect to see Wilson utilized a lot more as well. It was nice to see plays with quick slants on first and second down (both were successful) last week and we will need to see more of that if we are going to counteract Kentucky and others tacking the box.
On defense, we face a Kentucky offense that has been a mixed bag. The good news is the Kentucky OL has been inconsistent. The Wildcats do boast last year’s ACC Pre-Season Offensive Player of the Year Devin Leary, Ray Davis, who rushed for over 1,000 yards at Vandy last season, and 5 receivers with a 40 or more-yard reception on the year. Their offense has been relatively boom or bust. Leary has thrown 9 TD’s and 5 INT’s, including 2 to Vandy last week through the first 4 games. However, as I said about Kentucky’s defense, I believe the lack of competition might mean we’ve only seen mostly vanilla Kentucky so far. I don’t expect them to all of a sudden be All-Pro, but just as people excuse the Charlotte performance for being vanilla (or all the lackluster Gator games against cupcakes for the last decade or so), I think it is fair to apply the same logic here. It wasn’t that long ago Kentucky struggled in their opener only to beat the Gators in the Swamp the next week for their first win in the series since 1986.
With all that said, I believe our defense is more than capable of handling this Kentucky offense. Our defense last year did a pretty good job with a decent amount of UK’s points coming off of two picks. Coach Armstrong has done wonders with this defense and a match up against an offensive line that has been inconsistent might be a problem.
Environmentally, the Gators play at UK at noonish for the first time since 2003 when a head coach in his second year went into Lexington with a first year QB and escaped with a memorable comeback to depress the Wildcats. The last 9 match ups at 3:30 or later have mostly been wild affairs from 2007’s shootout, to the Tebow concussion in 2009, to my brother’s wedding day in 2017 where UK didn’t line up against a receiver twice. The last two, Trask finally getting to show what he could do and AR not being permitted to do so (possibly injured) were mirror images of each other. Hopefully, we see more of a 2011 type game.
Losing this game does erase much of the goodwill built by the Tennessee win, in part due to last week’s so-so performance. Losing this game raises questions about winning on the road with road games at Williams-Brice, Death Valley, and a cold CoMo remaining. Losing would do so many things, fair or not, I cannot help but call this game a must win. A first SEC East road win. Keep the momentum, seize the opportunity before us, and beat the Wildcats.
Florida 21, Kentucky 10
Go Gators!
Is the Kentucky game a must win? I say yes. In short, a loss to the Wildcats, especially after the so-so offensive showing against Charlotte would negate all proceeding momentum the Gators have coming off the Tennessee win.
Let’s get the disgusting stats out of the way. Florida heads to Lexington, Kentucky with a 2-game losing streak to the Wildcats and losing 3 out of 5 after 31 straight victories from 1987 to 2017. Florida is 1-6 away from the Swamp under Billy Napier. The 1 win was at Texas A&M where the Gators trailed at the half to an A&M team that was ravaged by injuries and was missing several key players, including their starting QB, due to a flu outbreak within the program.
If you want to show improvement in year 2, step 1 was the rivalry win and beating a Tennessee team that wasn’t as potent as last year’s team. Step 2 is winning on the road, beating teams you’re more talented than, and beating teams when they stack the box. Kentucky qualifies for all three of those things.
On offense, Florida faces a Kentucky program that has the 20th ranked defense in the nation. They are 61st against the pass and 9th against the run giving up 215.8 and 77.5 yards respectively. Kentucky has not really played anyone, but that also probably means they’ve been relatively vanilla up until this point while Florida has had two games to show its hand. Kentucky being ahead in the games probably means that opposing teams did more passing and less running so the run game might not be as stout as the stats suggest.
I expect Kentucky to stack the box to try and stop Florida’s running game. Tennessee played light boxes in the first half and paid dearly. Kentucky will have learned while looking at the Utah, OSU, and Vandy games. As I wrote Sunday, Etienne needs a large share of the touches as in our last 5 FBS games (excluding bowl) he averages 6.5 ypc while Johnson averages 3.5 ypc. I expect to see Wilson utilized a lot more as well. It was nice to see plays with quick slants on first and second down (both were successful) last week and we will need to see more of that if we are going to counteract Kentucky and others tacking the box.
On defense, we face a Kentucky offense that has been a mixed bag. The good news is the Kentucky OL has been inconsistent. The Wildcats do boast last year’s ACC Pre-Season Offensive Player of the Year Devin Leary, Ray Davis, who rushed for over 1,000 yards at Vandy last season, and 5 receivers with a 40 or more-yard reception on the year. Their offense has been relatively boom or bust. Leary has thrown 9 TD’s and 5 INT’s, including 2 to Vandy last week through the first 4 games. However, as I said about Kentucky’s defense, I believe the lack of competition might mean we’ve only seen mostly vanilla Kentucky so far. I don’t expect them to all of a sudden be All-Pro, but just as people excuse the Charlotte performance for being vanilla (or all the lackluster Gator games against cupcakes for the last decade or so), I think it is fair to apply the same logic here. It wasn’t that long ago Kentucky struggled in their opener only to beat the Gators in the Swamp the next week for their first win in the series since 1986.
With all that said, I believe our defense is more than capable of handling this Kentucky offense. Our defense last year did a pretty good job with a decent amount of UK’s points coming off of two picks. Coach Armstrong has done wonders with this defense and a match up against an offensive line that has been inconsistent might be a problem.
Environmentally, the Gators play at UK at noonish for the first time since 2003 when a head coach in his second year went into Lexington with a first year QB and escaped with a memorable comeback to depress the Wildcats. The last 9 match ups at 3:30 or later have mostly been wild affairs from 2007’s shootout, to the Tebow concussion in 2009, to my brother’s wedding day in 2017 where UK didn’t line up against a receiver twice. The last two, Trask finally getting to show what he could do and AR not being permitted to do so (possibly injured) were mirror images of each other. Hopefully, we see more of a 2011 type game.
Losing this game does erase much of the goodwill built by the Tennessee win, in part due to last week’s so-so performance. Losing this game raises questions about winning on the road with road games at Williams-Brice, Death Valley, and a cold CoMo remaining. Losing would do so many things, fair or not, I cannot help but call this game a must win. A first SEC East road win. Keep the momentum, seize the opportunity before us, and beat the Wildcats.
Florida 21, Kentucky 10
Go Gators!
