- Oct 5, 2017
- 2,315
- 6,299
Sometimes I miss having fun with the titles.
Anyways, As I have said on the podcast (released 2 am the day after my preview writings), I get tired of calling games must wins, but in different contexts the games certainly can be. The context for this week is two fold. The first is that this game is the best chance we have the remainder of the season to brake the 1-7 away from the Swamp record under Napier. Yes, we have the 1, but that was against A&M's B team due to a litany of injuries and a flu outbreak. A 2-3 Carolina team coming off of a bye is our best shot on the road the remainder of the year as it now stands. The second reason is bowl eligibility. Win this, we are 5-2 and only need to steal 1 game, probably beating Arkansas, in our killer 5 game stretch to end the season. Lose this, and you've got to beat Arkansas and steal a game against a team from a group of 4 that has a combined 3 losses on the season (and two of those were against each other; FSU over LSU and LSU over Mizzou) as well as probably one on the road (as Mizzou is probably our next best chance.
Carolina is one of the SEC's best home advantages. Throw in a Carolina base that sees this as a bowl eligibility must win game for their team and a team that sees UF as a big game, no matter the records. Outside of Clemson, many Gamecocks will see this as the biggest home game on their schedule (bigger than Kentucky). My point is, this fanbase will be fired up and the Gators need to be ready for a hostile environment bolstered by the South Carolina State Fair taking place in the parking lot. Throw in Carolina coming off of a bye, the first of three opponents to do so, and it is a tough game.
On offense, the Gators face the nations 118th ranked defense giving up 443 ypg. They are 126th in the nation against the pass giving up 301 passing ypg and are 73rd against the run giving up 141.6 ypg on the ground. Now a bit of context, the Gamecocks have faced 3 top 25 offenses away from Williams-Brice in their first 5 games; Georgia (8), UNC (9), and Tennessee (22). The defense isn't great, but might be slightly better than first glance. Since they've been behind in those 3 losses, the run defense stats might be higher than they typically would be. I believe the Gators need to come out through the air and exploit what has been a poor Gamecocks offense. If they can have success through the air early, it will open up plenty of room for Etienne and Johnson to exploit. Wilson and Pearsall have the speed to cause issues and Jackson has been solid. Throw in Boardingham growing throughout the season and we have growing skill in the passing game. With injuries to Douglas and Jean, I wouldn't be surprised to maybe see more from Mizell.
On defense, the Gators face a pedestrian running game, 87 ypg (124th in the nation), but a great passing game, 312.2 ypg (14th in the nation). In context, being behind in 3 games would inflate the passing numbers and deflate the running numbers. With that said, I don't care how down you are, 312.2 ypg is a ton of passing. The Gators will need to stop the pass first and foremost. We've generally been good at that through the year, but we also have only faced only 1 top 50 passing offense, Vandy who just had their back up throw for 280. Rattler and Legette are a great combo that have combined for over 600 yards in 5 games this season. Slowing them down will be key. Juice Wells is doubtful and probably will not play against UF, but if he somehow makes it on the field, we will have a bigger task. Carolina is the first of 4 top 14 passing offenses we face in the next 5 games. We will learn a lot about our true pass defense starting in Columbia, SC. Is it currently a product of facing a bunch of subpar passing offenses or are those passing offenses down in the rankings because of our good play? Or both?
In the opposite of the immovable force meeting the unstoppable object, UF's 108th in sacks faces a poor Carolina OL. Whoever wins this battle will go a long way to winning the war. If Princely and co. pressure Rattler, it may essentially shut down the Carolina offense. If the OL buys Rattler enough time, it will be a long day for the defense.
Unless the aberration of poor tackling we saw against Kentucky rears its head, I believe our run defense should be able to limit the lackluster Carolina running game. If you remove a 75 yard TD run, none of their RB's average 4 ypc on the season. Usually, good backs will still be above 4 if you remove a single long run. For context, Etienne averages 5 ypc if you remove his long of 62 and Johnson averages 4.85 if you remove his long of 34.
Despite the records, this is a tough task for the Gators on the road in a tough environment. If not now for a win on the road, when? This season is at a turning point going into the bye. A win and a lot of things become possible. A loss and the season could spiral.
For now, we hold onto hope.
Gators 24, Cocks 21
Go Gators!
Anyways, As I have said on the podcast (released 2 am the day after my preview writings), I get tired of calling games must wins, but in different contexts the games certainly can be. The context for this week is two fold. The first is that this game is the best chance we have the remainder of the season to brake the 1-7 away from the Swamp record under Napier. Yes, we have the 1, but that was against A&M's B team due to a litany of injuries and a flu outbreak. A 2-3 Carolina team coming off of a bye is our best shot on the road the remainder of the year as it now stands. The second reason is bowl eligibility. Win this, we are 5-2 and only need to steal 1 game, probably beating Arkansas, in our killer 5 game stretch to end the season. Lose this, and you've got to beat Arkansas and steal a game against a team from a group of 4 that has a combined 3 losses on the season (and two of those were against each other; FSU over LSU and LSU over Mizzou) as well as probably one on the road (as Mizzou is probably our next best chance.
Carolina is one of the SEC's best home advantages. Throw in a Carolina base that sees this as a bowl eligibility must win game for their team and a team that sees UF as a big game, no matter the records. Outside of Clemson, many Gamecocks will see this as the biggest home game on their schedule (bigger than Kentucky). My point is, this fanbase will be fired up and the Gators need to be ready for a hostile environment bolstered by the South Carolina State Fair taking place in the parking lot. Throw in Carolina coming off of a bye, the first of three opponents to do so, and it is a tough game.
On offense, the Gators face the nations 118th ranked defense giving up 443 ypg. They are 126th in the nation against the pass giving up 301 passing ypg and are 73rd against the run giving up 141.6 ypg on the ground. Now a bit of context, the Gamecocks have faced 3 top 25 offenses away from Williams-Brice in their first 5 games; Georgia (8), UNC (9), and Tennessee (22). The defense isn't great, but might be slightly better than first glance. Since they've been behind in those 3 losses, the run defense stats might be higher than they typically would be. I believe the Gators need to come out through the air and exploit what has been a poor Gamecocks offense. If they can have success through the air early, it will open up plenty of room for Etienne and Johnson to exploit. Wilson and Pearsall have the speed to cause issues and Jackson has been solid. Throw in Boardingham growing throughout the season and we have growing skill in the passing game. With injuries to Douglas and Jean, I wouldn't be surprised to maybe see more from Mizell.
On defense, the Gators face a pedestrian running game, 87 ypg (124th in the nation), but a great passing game, 312.2 ypg (14th in the nation). In context, being behind in 3 games would inflate the passing numbers and deflate the running numbers. With that said, I don't care how down you are, 312.2 ypg is a ton of passing. The Gators will need to stop the pass first and foremost. We've generally been good at that through the year, but we also have only faced only 1 top 50 passing offense, Vandy who just had their back up throw for 280. Rattler and Legette are a great combo that have combined for over 600 yards in 5 games this season. Slowing them down will be key. Juice Wells is doubtful and probably will not play against UF, but if he somehow makes it on the field, we will have a bigger task. Carolina is the first of 4 top 14 passing offenses we face in the next 5 games. We will learn a lot about our true pass defense starting in Columbia, SC. Is it currently a product of facing a bunch of subpar passing offenses or are those passing offenses down in the rankings because of our good play? Or both?
In the opposite of the immovable force meeting the unstoppable object, UF's 108th in sacks faces a poor Carolina OL. Whoever wins this battle will go a long way to winning the war. If Princely and co. pressure Rattler, it may essentially shut down the Carolina offense. If the OL buys Rattler enough time, it will be a long day for the defense.
Unless the aberration of poor tackling we saw against Kentucky rears its head, I believe our run defense should be able to limit the lackluster Carolina running game. If you remove a 75 yard TD run, none of their RB's average 4 ypc on the season. Usually, good backs will still be above 4 if you remove a single long run. For context, Etienne averages 5 ypc if you remove his long of 62 and Johnson averages 4.85 if you remove his long of 34.
Despite the records, this is a tough task for the Gators on the road in a tough environment. If not now for a win on the road, when? This season is at a turning point going into the bye. A win and a lot of things become possible. A loss and the season could spiral.
For now, we hold onto hope.
Gators 24, Cocks 21
Go Gators!
