Truth Takes: Vandy Preview 2023

GatorTruth133

Alethea
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Let's be honest, to preview Vandy all that needs to be said is that we need to beat the Commodres.

However, I'm a longwinded guy and said I'd do this anyway so here we are.

I know I said last week was a must win, it was. You know what else is a must win, for similar and different reasons? Vandy. Seriously, losing to Vandy twice in a row and being 0-4 against UK and Vandy would unleash a wall of noise in the system I don't think any of us have ever seen before. There were a large contingent still with faith in Muschamp, Mac, and Mullen when they were let go. A second straight loss to Vandy would get more to jump off the train than I think would be imaginable. I believe we are winning this game, let me be clear, but it is a situation we haven't seen in our lifetime.

Vandy is giving up 408 yards per game through 6 games. They are giving up 260ish yards passing per game. We have to show we can pass to set up the run. Vandy started the sell out the box against us defense and when teams have since they have been successful. Put things on tape to make future defenses think. With Vandy being the "easiest" game left, work on things that can help moving forward to get us through the season. Build on that against Carolina (which I said in the Kentucky review and I stand by it, use these two 100+ ranked defenses to make a few slight modifications that may help). I'm not saying redo the whole offense, but you can start running some passes without play action. You can run the double slants play on downs that aren't 3rd or 4th. Take advantage of their weaker secondary.

On defense, Vandy, yes Vandy, and I'll say it again, the Vanderbilt Commodores have a top 40 passing offense currently. I don't want to kick a scheme when its down so you can search yourselves for how many of those our scheme has through 9 seasons of being called at various schools (or search each time I've dropped that fact on here or X). That said, the Commodores average over 1 INT thrown and about 2 sacks a game. In theory we should be good. Their RB's barely average 4 ypc. Until proven otherwise, I'm going to treat last week as an aberration for the defense. We were in position plenty and just failed to tackle. We shut down a top 5 rushing attack against UT (yes, they are currently top 5).

Also, beating Vandy doesn't answer any questions for me no matter what Carbozo said in 2017 or Mullen trying to prove EJ's passing ability in 2021. However, a loss would prove a lot. I think of this a lot like a cupcake game. Not much to gain, but everything to lose.

This is in the Swamp, team and coaches want to lower the noise. Best way to do that is win and win big. I think we do.

Gators 24, Vandy 10
 

LongTooth

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Our offense is atrocious from every angle. Mertz can’t move or throw left, and doesn’t see wide open receivers. OL is injured and inconsistent. Play action is a complete waste of time. BN’s play calling is bad. Very bad. If we struggled against Charlotte, we’ll struggle against everyone. This offense producing 20 points in this or any game left on our schedule will be a miracle.

Any victories the rest of the way will rest on the defense making the UK game a one off. We need turnovers, defensive scores, and the ability to set this terrible offense up with a short field multiple times.

If AA can’t get this defensive unit to perform better this week and every week there is no way we get anywhere close to six wins….

I know we have systemic and roster issues that BN is working thru, but so many of our problems seem self inflicted by him on game day and with that deficiency tied to what appears to be another case of head coach egotism and stubbornness, I just don’t see any course correction before this goes off a cliff, and that cliff could be Saturday.

Losing to Vandy would solidify our position as the worst team in the southeastern conference.
 

TN G8tr

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@GatorTruth133 Truth I know what I think should happen this week, but not sure the reality of it happening. You would think this team, staff, and hell even the trainers want to come out and curb stomp the Commode-doors and very badly. I am hoping that alot of this had to do with the youth. BUT!!!!! this staff and BN have some cleaning up to do on their end as well.

If UF wanted to make a statement, I would come out, line up with 2 TE's, QB under center, and just run right straight at them and physically. Forget the pre snap motion, window dressing, and all the other bullshyt. We are not fooling any D with a QB that cannot run in this offense and the predictability. So if they put 7-8 in the box, go block them with 7-8. Just play football and quit trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

After last week, I will be cautiously optimistic. But also, will make sure that I have a couple more Jack n Coke's on board than usual before kick off.
 

Theologator

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I want to see fight. I want to see urgency. These guys seem ok with .500 football. Does anyone hate to lose? Are any lessons being learned? Or are they just enjoying that marvelous facility?

One turnover so far this year. One. Sure tackling and forcing turnovers are defensive goals this week.

Agreed, @GatorTruth133 , 24-10 seems about right. We can’t feel great about a win but a loss would be devastating. We really need to win the next 2.
 

deuce

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Meh.........


It's just a Football game.... :suicide:
 

Detroitgator

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Let's be honest, to preview Vandy all that needs to be said is that we need to beat the Commodres.

However, I'm a longwinded guy and said I'd do this anyway so here we are.

I know I said last week was a must win, it was. You know what else is a must win, for similar and different reasons? Vandy. Seriously, losing to Vandy twice in a row and being 0-4 against UK and Vandy would unleash a wall of noise in the system I don't think any of us have ever seen before. There were a large contingent still with faith in Muschamp, Mac, and Mullen when they were let go. A second straight loss to Vandy would get more to jump off the train than I think would be imaginable. I believe we are winning this game, let me be clear, but it is a situation we haven't seen in our lifetime.

Vandy is giving up 408 yards per game through 6 games. They are giving up 260ish yards passing per game. We have to show we can pass to set up the run. Vandy started the sell out the box against us defense and when teams have since they have been successful. Put things on tape to make future defenses think. With Vandy being the "easiest" game left, work on things that can help moving forward to get us through the season. Build on that against Carolina (which I said in the Kentucky review and I stand by it, use these two 100+ ranked defenses to make a few slight modifications that may help). I'm not saying redo the whole offense, but you can start running some passes without play action. You can run the double slants play on downs that aren't 3rd or 4th. Take advantage of their weaker secondary.

On defense, Vandy, yes Vandy, and I'll say it again, the Vanderbilt Commodores have a top 40 passing offense currently. I don't want to kick a scheme when its down so you can search yourselves for how many of those our scheme has through 9 seasons of being called at various schools (or search each time I've dropped that fact on here or X). That said, the Commodores average over 1 INT thrown and about 2 sacks a game. In theory we should be good. Their RB's barely average 4 ypc. Until proven otherwise, I'm going to treat last week as an aberration for the defense. We were in position plenty and just failed to tackle. We shut down a top 5 rushing attack against UT (yes, they are currently top 5).

Also, beating Vandy doesn't answer any questions for me no matter what Carbozo said in 2017 or Mullen trying to prove EJ's passing ability in 2021. However, a loss would prove a lot. I think of this a lot like a cupcake game. Not much to gain, but everything to lose.

This is in the Swamp, team and coaches want to lower the noise. Best way to do that is win and win big. I think we do.

Gators 24, Vandy 10
OK, I finally got to watch the game last night (yeah, i'm a masochist!)... On our passing game, we did fire it down field on 1st down early twice early in the game! The first one might have been for a TD, but ball was either OVER thrown (weird for Mertz), poor route run, or both. The second one wasn't completely over the top, but "deep end of mid range" and should probably have been caught. It was like the coaches TRIED, then turtled up.
 

Gator By Marriage

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@GatorTruth133 - Nice write up as always. It’s a sad statement that a prediction of a 24-10 victory over Vandy not only seems reasonable, but it may even be a tad optimistic.

Last week’s game was so hard for me everyone to watch not just because of all the missed tackles, but the plays by Johnson and Boardingham that lead directly to UK TDs when the next plays should have been Gator first downs. Not to mention our supposedly best CB dropping what should have been a pick 6. All that aside, the most frustrating part was watching our HC continue to call plays that were so predictable they had almost no chance of succeeding.

As you note, with just some small tweaks, the offense can do some different things and possibly be more successful. But does CBN have it in him? I’m in the camp of those here that really like the guy - which I can’t say for the last three HCs - and, of course, we all want him to be wildly successful here, but as we’ve discussed here ad nauseam, can he make the changes he needs to? Obviously he can do it on defense, but he’s an offense guy. Can he admit to himself he’s wrong and needs to do things differently?

Ok, too much bloviating. We win - I’m going to try to remain positive, we’ll sort of anyway - in a close one that fails to relieve the pressure on Napier.

Gators 23
‘Dores 17
 

Gatorbait25

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18-17 gators . Smack kicks the GW FG on the last play of the game for his sixth of the evening . Billy gets a Gatorade bath for a huge home win. His first against the mighty commodores from Vanderbilt.
 

URGatorBait

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18-17 gators . Smack kicks the GW FG on the last play of the game for his sixth of the evening . Billy gets a Gatorade bath for a huge home win. His first against the mighty commodores from Vanderbilt.
I'm shocked you even have us winning
 

gatorev12

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This is in the Swamp, team and coaches want to lower the noise. Best way to do that is win and win big. I think we do.

Gators 24, Vandy 10

I agree with pretty much everything you said, but...
A 14 pt victory with 24 total pts is "winning big?"

Yes, Napier needs this game more than anything to quiet the noise. But failing to score more than 3 TDs at home vs Vandy wouldn't take the pressure off Napier going into the meat of our schedule.

It would be an uninspiring victory vs a doormat we're supposed to handedly beat, but didn't. Like Charlotte two weeks ago.

One missed tackle or assignment from the defense in that game could have quickly turned it into a one-score game...and you're predicting more of the same here. It won't quiet the noise IMO.
 

Swamped Gator

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One of my issues is how predictable we are on offense. If we pass on first down and it’s incomplete second down is ALWAYS a run. Teams know Billy doesn’t want third and long so we are always going to run on second down to try to have third and manageable. I’d like to see Mertz connect on more passes beyond the line of scrimmage in this game.
 

soflagator

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One of my issues is how predictable we are on offense. If we pass on first down and it’s incomplete second down is ALWAYS a run. Teams know Billy doesn’t want third and long so we are always going to run on second down to try to have third and manageable. I’d like to see Mertz connect on more passes beyond the line of scrimmage in this game.

We must be watching different games then. I never know if we’re going to throw a screen pass that isn’t blocked particularly well, a hitch to a stationary WR in front of a LB, run into a loaded box, or drop back and let Mertz misfire on a deep route. I’m edge of my seat the whole time.
 

Okeechobee Joe

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In other words we have to play a perfect game and our offense has to fire on all 4 cylinders just to beat Vanderbilt 24 - 10.
 

NovaGator

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I wish Billy and the Gators great success in this game. God help the man if he loses it. I would not want to be in his shoes. A $38 million buyout figure will not deter a change!
 

Silverback Gator

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He loses today and he's fired.
We won't lose but likely won't win by much. Napier will say we did some good things, we are making progress, Vandy is a very good football team, and any win in the SEC is a good win.
 
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