- Jul 15, 2014
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Click on any one you want for historical, these are spot. Other things like crypto are linked at the top.Where is a good source to see lumber prices?
Futures
Click on any one you want for historical, these are spot. Other things like crypto are linked at the top.Where is a good source to see lumber prices?
just that on their weekly meetings they are being told to be prepared for the loan market to start slowing significantly
I jokingly asked when I'll be able to lowball and come to her for a loan. She said they were told that in a year, they'd be wishing they were working 60 hr weeks.
I'll share a couple thoughts as a person who has been in the business a long time (even prior to last big bubble).
Right now, the slow down is created by a lack of inventory. I can tell this by the number of "prequalified and looking" people I've got, the phone activity for new prequals, and the time it is taking motivated borrowers to get under contract. I expect a rebound towards the end of the summer through early fall.
However, if history is a guide mistakes will be repeated. During this lull, rates need to adjust upward to flatten out demand and curb the unsustainable value increase. The extreme lack of supply is signaling builders to build like crazy - a massive second spike will only reinforce this. You'll get an massive oversupply with the builders overextended. Sound familiar?
One thing that was done much better this time is that the GSEs slapped a stupid large delivery charge on second homes and investments early in the explosion (probably not early enough) which tweaked the pricing and limited the expansion of the bubble to what should be mostly primary residences. The low rates were also signaling property investors to buy up inventory as rentals with essentially free money.
I assume by in the business you mean realtor?.
there will come a point where math will overcome FOMO. Rates are so low, that any increase in rates will significantly impact pricing. It's just math.Nope - lending. I've done just about everything on the mortgage side from servicing to origination, including a stint on the lock desk for one of the big five. Currently I'm in branch-level origination for mid-sized lender operating in over 20 states. There's a a lot of artificial signals right now, and you mentioned another. Keep in mind that tends to be a much bigger one in highly urban markets.
We basically agree. The steps that need to be taken to mitigate the withdrawal symptoms will not be. Every bubble deflates and everything points to this beginning that phase. I'd prefer a slow leak but we'll probably get a pop instead. Not an 08 pop, but a pop.
We do have a new branch location start this fall, but it's in an insolated market which had very little softening even in 2008. We matched our previous year totals as of April's fundings, so we're well capitalized to weather whatever downturn happens. Killing the second home/investment surge early in the process will help considerably - but you're probably not going to see a pricing move aggressive enough to stop the construction surge before we get to a tipping point.
Not exactly sure. Haven’t looked that up. We’ve got a lot going on the commercial side. Credit is tightening up and lending is b1tching because they aren’t making goals. So everything is taking longer to get deals pushed thru.When is the FC and eviction protection set to end? June 30th?
Not exactly sure. Haven’t looked that up. We’ve got a lot going on the commercial side. Credit is tightening up and lending is b1tching because they aren’t making goals. So everything is taking longer to get deals pushed thru.
Not exactly sure. Haven’t looked that up. We’ve got a lot going on the commercial side. Credit is tightening up and lending is b1tching because they aren’t making goals. So everything is taking longer to get deals pushed thru.
When is the FC and eviction protection set to end? June 30th?
You quoted a comment about commercial credit issues and then talked about residential rates. Been watching the WH press briefings too much...they starting to rub off.Lendingtree is pushing 2% 15 year money up to 500k all over the web this morning
You quoted a comment about commercial credit issues and then talked about residential rates. Been watching the WH press briefings too much...they starting to rub off.
Learn to read old man. I was explaining why I was busy. I wasn’t conflating anything. Go drink your ensure and watch your bird feederThis entire discussion has been about residential until you conflated.
Yep, if you can work remotely, check out some other areas nearby and just monitor the market. I’m sure you can find a decent rental in rural Polk County, or one of the rural counties to the NE. You could even try as North as Levy.We're searching for a home in the St. Pete/Gulfport area and haven't had much luck - anything 'nice' is gone quickly, or it's simply more than we want to pay. Wife spent all week down there last week w/ no luck. We're both flying down on Wed for 24 hours to look at a couple of houses - 1 is not on the market, but the realtor knows the guy interested in selling. We're considering renting, asking for a clause to get out of the lease if we find something. We need to make a decision within the next 3 to 4 weeks (hopefully) on renting or buying. If we rent, we'd have the funds to do an all-cash deal. We plan to keep this house 10 years of so, so I'm not too concerned if the market downturns for a few years (it'll come back during the 10 years we keep it). This is a tough decision - we're selling at the perfect time....and buying at the worst.
Also, if you can borrow someone’s RV long term, there are KOA’s and some nice RV “resorts” in FLWe're searching for a home in the St. Pete/Gulfport area and haven't had much luck - anything 'nice' is gone quickly, or it's simply more than we want to pay. Wife spent all week down there last week w/ no luck. We're both flying down on Wed for 24 hours to look at a couple of houses - 1 is not on the market, but the realtor knows the guy interested in selling. We're considering renting, asking for a clause to get out of the lease if we find something. We need to make a decision within the next 3 to 4 weeks (hopefully) on renting or buying. If we rent, we'd have the funds to do an all-cash deal. We plan to keep this house 10 years of so, so I'm not too concerned if the market downturns for a few years (it'll come back during the 10 years we keep it). This is a tough decision - we're selling at the perfect time....and buying at the worst.
Don't bother Otis he's still sleeping it off..You quoted a comment about commercial credit issues and then talked about residential rates. Been watching the WH press briefings too much...they starting to rub off.
Also, if you can borrow someone’s RV long term, there are KOA’s and some nice RV “resorts” in FL
Yep, if you can work remotely, check out some other areas nearby and just monitor the market. I’m sure you can find a decent rental in rural Polk County, or one of the rural counties to the NE. You could even try as North as Levy.
Yes, but FHA only announces the 90 day extensions 3-10 days before expiration, so far.