2022 investing thread

[FireFoley]

So Crete, what happens when the traditional 30yr. mortgage hits 6% today? Do you all ring a bell? That will probably be the highest rate that almost anyone who is submitting an application to your office has ever seen?

 

[Bernardo de la Paz]

Blood bath again in crypto too.

 

[soflagator]

So Crete, what happens when the traditional 30yr. mortgage hits 6% today? Do you all ring a bell? That will probably be the highest rate that almost anyone who is submitting an application to your office has ever seen?

Have a friend that’s actually pretty intelligent, but has a tendency to over leverage himself again and again. Just found out Saturday he did an adjustable rate HELOC last year and is get hammered. It’s amazing watching people do the same thing over and over.

 

[Alumni Guy]

Look out below.....
I guess China caught the sniffles again. Everything dumping in pre market. Gold is holding up better than anything else for now so I pulled more out the little I still have in stocks and bought a few more ounces. I keep stalling on the decision to take the rest out and pay off at least one of the rentals. I'm open to anyone here to try and talk me out of that? I just don't see a reversal happening for the next couple of years myself?

How many more years are left on the mortgage?

If it’s not too long, I’d pay it off. You’re not going to earn 4% (your mortgage rate) on your equity positions any time soon.

Might as well gain wealth through a reduction in liabilities.

If you’ve got a while on the mortgage, do you think you will average 4% year by time it matures since your probably down 14% YTD like me?

 

[FireFoley]

Have a friend that’s actually pretty intelligent, but has a tendency to over leverage himself again and again. Just found out Saturday he did an adjustable rate HELOC last year and is get hammered. It’s amazing watching people do the same thing over and over.

Having been in the financial world the better part of my life, when it comes to asset markets. etc. there is always that group of people who love to tell you "It is different this time". Well here is how it usually plays out. What is different might be the cause of the ruckus, but what is never different is how it resolves itself. As an old man trust me, "It is never different this time".

 

[Concrete Helmet]

So Crete, what happens when the traditional 30yr. mortgage hits 6% today? Do you all ring a bell? That will probably be the highest rate that almost anyone who is submitting an application to your office has ever seen?

HELOC's are off the chart.....big ones too.....200-500k. We finished May with 200 files closed and are already over 80 this month. A sh!t ton of large purchases and refi's including my sons private school for 4mill and 2 large land purchases for 2.8 and 2.5 respectively.
I literally thought I would be back to driving a truck or something by now but.....

 

[FireFoley]

I don;t know what to make of the commercial or land refi's, but my instincts tell me that the HELOC volume is a sign that the peeps have run out of money.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Have a friend that’s actually pretty intelligent, but has a tendency to over leverage himself again and again. Just found out Saturday he did an adjustable rate HELOC last year and is get hammered.

Tell him he needs a new one then PM me his info....

 

[Concrete Helmet]

I don;t know what to make of the commercial or land refi's, but my instincts tell me that the HELOC volume is a sign that the peeps have run out of money.

My other thought is they(investors) are taking out enough to fix the houses and try to sell out before the crash....In fact I just started sending out follow up letters to explain that we can help them save thousands through the process ...

 

[soflagator]

Having been in the financial world the better part of my life, when it comes to asset markets. etc. there is always that group of people who love to tell you "It is different this time". Well here is how it usually plays out. What is different might be the cause of the ruckus, but what is never different is how it resolves itself. As an old man trust me, "It is never different this time".

If you’ve ever seen the movie Margin Call, this one of the best descriptions ever. Starting at the 2:00 mark.

 

[BMF]

S&P is officially in a bear market.....ooof! And crypto's are ugly the last 24+ hours.

 

[G8trwood]

Damn, thought I was retired, might be getting a job as a Walmart greeter next week, long term growth my ass ;)
Mortgage rates still beat that 13-5/8 of my first house

 

[FireFoley]

Damn, thought I was retired, might be getting a job as a Walmart greeter next week, long term growth my ass ;)
Mortgage rates still beat that 13-5/8 of my first house

Perhaps, but that was a zillion years ago. Tell the putz who was trying to buy a POS house for 600K and a 3% mortgage b/c he could barely afford the monthly payment that he can get the same house for 500K but a 6% mortgage and he will say that he can no longer afford the monthly payment. And at 500K that same house is still overpriced and still a POS

 

[G8trwood]

Perhaps, but that was a zillion years ago. Tell the putz who was trying to buy a POS house for 600K and a 3% mortgage b/c he could barely afford the monthly payment that he can get the same house for 500K but a 6% mortgage and he will say that he can no longer afford the monthly payment. And at 500K that same house is still overpriced and still a POS

I agree, but I have always thought the housing insanity was founded on free money. If the money is not free…..

 

[soflagator]

I agree, but I have always thought the housing insanity was founded on free money. If the money is not free…..

Much of it was. Still think most people will be ok this go around in comparison to 2008 where people owned homes as speculation and/or had the Arms, interest only’s, etc., all with little vetting done by the underwriters. There’s a difference in defaulting on a rental property and defaulting on where you live. May be wrong but I think a lot of other discretionary spending takes the brunt first. Tightened regulation and lending guidelines also means that there will be more willingness and more ability to hold debt holders’ feet to the fire, where they often couldn’t before because these people had absolutely zero business being in the loan to begin with.

So I think, again my speculation, that even those over leveraged will ultimately survive even if other things suffer. I also think perhaps the bigger story that will come out of this historic period of low rates, is how many wasted it on auto loans, low rate credit cards, etc. and are now essentially priced out of the housing market all together. The disparity in property ownership, especially along certain demographic lines, is going to be massive. And of course, labeled as unfair.

 

[FireFoley]

Much of it was. Still think most people will be ok this go around in comparison to 2008 where people owned homes as speculation and/or had the Arms, interest only’s, etc., all with little vetting done by the underwriters. There’s a difference in defaulting on a rental property and defaulting on where you live. May be wrong but I think a lot of other discretionary spending takes the brunt first. Tightened regulation and lending guidelines also means that there will be more willingness and more ability to hold debt holders’ feet to the fire, where they often couldn’t before because these people had absolutely zero business being in the loan to begin with.

So I think, again my speculation, that even those over leveraged will ultimately survive even if other things suffer. I also think perhaps the bigger story that will come out of this historic period of low rates, is how many wasted it on auto loans, low rate credit cards, etc. and are now essentially priced out of the housing market all together. The disparity in property ownership, especially along certain demographic lines, is going to be massive. And of course, labeled as unfair.

I agree mostly. I sold my own home 17 years ago and was confidnet there was going to be a crash b/c of what you outlined. I agree with a lot you said and have predicted multiple times on here regarding housing that iit is going to be a 10-20 slow bleed of 1% here, 1% there and so on. And when those who want to move realize their neighbor just sold their home for a little less than they paid for it, people will be anchored to that home for longer than they had planned. And I agree about all the other areas of spending so when people need money in the future and go for that HELOC or 2nd mortgage and are told what the value of their home is, they will realize they are stuck even longer. 600K with 20% down at 3% is roughly the same monthly payment as 400K with 20% down at 6%. And as well all know 99.9% do NOT care about total debt. They only care about monthly payments and that is regarding EVERYTHING

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Maybe this will make everyone feel a little better....
In the era of Volker the dept to GDP was 35%....
Currently the debt to GDP IS 135%.....

In other words the Federal government won't be able to even cover the debt service(interest) on their current debt or were all foooked.....Probably be a good time to be in long term bonds about the time they hit their peak....whenever that is.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Damn, thought I was retired, might be getting a job as a Walmart greeter next week, long term growth my ass ;)

I have been having a reoccurring dream almost every night for about 6 months about being back in the kitchen(I was an executive chef years ago)and none of my staff was showing up for work......That and occasionally when I wake up screaming and am able to fall back asleep I dream about being back in boat sales like I was when 2008 rolled around......

 

[soflagator]

I have been having a reoccurring dream almost every night for about 6 months about being back in the kitchen(I was an executive chef years ago)and none of my staff was showing up for work......That and occasionally when I wake up screaming and am able to fall back asleep I dream about being back in boat sales like I was when 2008 rolled around......
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I’d go ahead and find your old knives and start practicing your mise en place. It’s all over.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

I’d go ahead and find your old knives and start practicing your mise en place.

But I have so gotten used to dealing with alchy's, drug addicts, derelicts and drama queens on the internet instead of on the job....