- Oct 5, 2017
- 2,658
- 7,156
Hey Everybody! I haven't done one of these in a good while and figured we are less than 2 weeks from the season kicking off so why not start a thread to get people debating and me getting called a fool. I figured I'd give a short look at each of Florida's opponents and why UF has a shot in each game. It's also close to the season and perhaps I'm feeling a little sunshiny or maybe part of that is the deep dives I've done myself into opponents instead of crying at logos. This schedule is full of opportunities to show we've built a good program or if not, that a change is needed.
Before I do that, just my baseline thoughts on what I believe is a very talented team that with some other coaches, is definitely seen as better than the 6.5 or 7.5 over/under people have us at.
I believe that this Gators team returns a ton of experience and probably the best QB in the SEC. We return 4 on an OL that was pretty good after we stopped rotating a lot the first few games. We have one of the best RB duos in the SEC with Baugh and Jackson. We have a generally unproven, but talented WR room returning Tre Wilson (former Freshman All-American), Aidan Mizell, TJ Abrams, and Tank Hawkins to go with transfer J. Michael Sturdivant, 5 star freshman Dallas Wilson, and highly touted true freshman Vernell Brown III. I'm also going to believe that since we announced the move to OC this year for Callaway that he improves the route trees for the receivers so that there are some easier throws for DJ and some less predictability in the passing game. He did call the FCS's top passing game at Samford in 2018, got their QB the Payton Award and lead FSU in Tally for a significant portion of a game. He may or may not end up being the guy to take this offense to the upper echelons of the sport, but I do think if the rumor of Callaway calling plays is true, it could pay dividends. DJ showed last year he could make throws into tight windows that few QB's could make, now Callaway might be able to provide him and the receivers the opportunities to have throws into space that anyone could make and allow the WR's to do work after the catch.
On Defense, the starting DL is great and the backups on the outside are also fine, but there is question about the DT depth. The LB unit with Howard, Robinson, Chiles and Graham is up there with the best units in the SEC returning plenty of game experience. At corner, Johnson and Moore, if healthy should be a good unit. Denson and Gates (when healthy) at Nickel is a good combo to have along with some work they've done at safety. Speaking of safety, Thornton and Castell bring a litany of experience, if nothing else. This defense has experience, there is no youth excuse.
I say all that to put in the framing for the schedule. This is how I feel the Gators should perform. I do know there are questions about coaching decisions and I am well aware of the current staff's 0 wins on the road against winning teams and terrible record against winning teams overall (2-5 in 2024 regular season). I will just hope that some of those things have been fixed through things like Callaway and returning experience advantages that UF has in a ton of games this season.
It is easier to be in detail about earlier big games as a lot of the analysis comes from catching some teams early. While later one, it becomes more of a guessing game so we go with what we have months in advance.
LIU
There is no way this should be an issue. I would really entertain the notion of sitting guys like Banks if they are not 100%. This is the worst team to come to the Swamp since possibly 2018.
USF
There are those that look at the USF and Bama game from 2023 or the 2022 game in The Swamp and figure this will be a 4 quarter affair. The Bulls were 7-6 last year and it took 5 OT's in the bowl game to avoid a losing record. There is no reason we shouldn't be able to run at will if necessary on a G5 DL and have this game out of reach by We Are the Boys.
At LSU
Let's get controversial. LSU lost 4 OL, including 1st and 3rd round OT's. One report said the one returner is moving from center to guard to let a Virginia Tech transfer be the starter at center so they'll have new starters in all 5 positions. They lost 4/5 of their top guys in receptions, but do have talent and brought in talent like Brown from Kentucky. One of those top guys in receptions was the best TE in program history and there are question marks at that position now. They lost their starting DL and 23 of 34 sacks from last year. They did bring in guys like Pyburn from UF and Payton from FSU. They have an extremely talented LB room headlined by the weeks brothers, so much so they are moving talented LB Harold Perkins to Star. Their pass D was 76th in the nation last year, but lost a number of guys and is relying on transfers.
That is a lot of transition. The biggest transition is that of the offensive line, and that is with the one last year giving up 7 sacks to the Gators. That is the type of transition where it could take a month or more into the season to figure out the best combinations for everything. This game is in Death Valley. However, remove the logo, and if the narrative that has been pushed is that building from high school is better than the portal, with the experience that the Gators return, you have to prove the narrative right. If this game were in mid-October or November, the feeling is different. It is game 3, there is little reason on paper, why a good coach can't take advantage of LSU's transition early in the season.
At Miami
Where LSU lost a ton of starters on their OL, Miami returns 4/5 and their starter at LG before injury last year. However, after that, Miami on offense replaces 4,300 yard passer Ward, 1,000 yd back Martinez (though a good 1/2 combo return), 1,100 yard receiver Restrepo (top 6 in yardage are all gone), and 7/10 of their leading tacklers. That is also a lot of transition.
Yes, Miami was decent last year, but also were close to being a 7-5 team but for ridiculous decisions by refs in the Virginia Tech and Cal games. The question for them is how good will Beck be behind that OL and will all the new receivers be able to have success. Notably, they brought in CJ Daniels from LSU who only had 480 yards in 2024, but had over 1,000 in 2023 at Liberty.
Their starting DL is being replaced, but they return quality at the edge positions (9 combined sacks in 2024). Pretty solid at DT. LB's are solid lead by Bissanthe, but questions on other position. The secondary is relying on multiple transfers and they are replacing their top 2 safeties from 2024.
Though an away game, the high transition early in the season definitely makes this one I believe with adequate coaching the Gators should win on paper. Add in the revenge motivation. For the second weekend in a row the clash of portal use ideologies will happen.
Texas
After both teams have a bye, Texas comes to the Swamp for their first SEC game of 2025. They will have already taken a trip to the horseshoe and though that might have better coaching and/or team, the atmosphere is not the Swamp. It will be interesting as Manning takes over at QB, they replace 4 OL starters and are now in the loudest environment starting so far, with new receivers, but returning their top RB's. Texas is relying on 5 transfer DT's for that interior, but return significant production elsewhere on defense.
The reason this is the second toughest game on the Gators schedule is because it is at home. This is the most talented team that Florida will face. We have seen the Swamp create magic before and there is a chance here if the Gators are healthy. The key might be to test those DT's early and often, running to shorten the game. Florida might not be able to win a shootout, but might be able to win a game close going into the 4th quarter at home. If the passing game becomes what talent suggests it could, this might be a night in Gainesville a whole generation of Gator fans haven't seen. This remains to be seen, but with the changes in personnel on offense for the Longhorns, if The Swamp comes alive, there might just be magic.
At Texas A&M
The toughest game on Florida's schedule. A&M returns their entire OL, Marcel Reed, top RB's and top WR (lost the next 4). They return a lot on defense including Pre-Season All-American LB York. They bring in guys like TJ Searcy, who showed talent at Florida.
This is an A&M team looking to take things to the next level. Reed only threw for 1,800 yards last season. If he gets the passing game going, this is a very dangerous team. The Gators have not taken a trip and faced a great Aggie team in front of 100,000+ before. 2012 didn't have that large of a stadium, the crowd was limited in 2020 and in 2022, the fans hardly cared in November, especially with a ton of injuries and more players missing due to the flu and an 11 am local kickoff.
There is always a chance and it might be to get some big passing plays to silence the crowd. The question is, in year 2 of Mike Elko, what does this A&M team look like at home and what will the Gators look like coming into the game. It could be 5-0 ceiling, it could be 2-3 floor.
Mississippi State
The Bulldogs return Blake Shapen, but have a great amount elsewhere. I believe the Bulldogs in time might become a problem for teams under Jeff Lebby, but that is not this year and that is not in the Swamp.
Georgia (Jax)
The big line from last year is the Gators win but for Lagway's injury. There is some validity, but it is not a certainty.
The Bulldogs return only 12 starters, Gunner Stockton takes over at QB and was ok in the SEC Championship and Playoff games. They have 4 new OL starters, though the OL was shaky at times last year. They lead the nation in drops last year and have brought in Branch from USC to try and improve the WR room. The defense reloads and Kirby Smart can put together a good defense. The big question for the Gators as the series ends its stint in Jacksonville for a few years is if not now, when, for a victory over the Bulldogs? If the big line is correct, this is the Gators best chance as any to take down Smart and the Bulldogs.
At Kentucky
Massive turnover at Kentucky after last year's losing season. The question is can the Gators get their first win in Lexington since 2019? If not, it is a bad, bad sign. This should be only a small step above Mississippi State in difficulty and a win for the Gators.
At Ole Miss
The great conundrum in Gator Nation is that many simultaneously will talk about how bad of a coach Lane Kiffin is, but then fear playing a Mississippi school. This Ole Miss team replaces 18ish starters and multiple back ups from last season. This team is heavily built from the portal. This is the end of a 6 game stretch that sees Ole Miss playing Washington State, Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, The Citadel and Florida. Only 4 SEC schools have 6 game stretches in this season with 2 bye weeks and Florida gets Ole Miss in game 6. Yes, it is on the road. Yes, it is a revenge game for Ole Miss. However, if the narrative pushed is "the right way" is not building through the portal, this is a must win over a completely rebuilt team at the end of a 6 game stretch.
Tennessee
QB? Gone. Top Receivers? Gone. Dylan Sampson? Gone. OL? 4 new starters. The defense returns a ton of experience and talent.
Tennessee has a bye week and New Mexico State the two weeks prior to coming to The Swamp, a place they haven't won in over 20 years. There are students who were not alive the last time this happened. If both teams are healthy, only coaching (and this includes attitude of teams due to records) could prevent a Gator victory at home in late November.
FSU
If Mike Norvell can build a team in one year to go from 2-10 to winning in The Swamp against the most talented and balanced Florida Gators football team in a long time, there are problems at UF. It is that simple. The Gators should and must win this rivalry game.
****************************
Every game is winnable for UF in 2025. That is not to say that a prediction is 12-0. Certain teams (LSU, Miami, and Ole Miss) cause more worry because of the logos than the facts surrounding the teams themselves.
The most likely outcome, with decent coaching is 9-3. A good coach at UF starts 4-0 catching two heavily transitioning teams early, hits a bye week, snags just 1 of 3 between Texas, A&M, and UGA, and then ends 4-0 in the last 4 games with Ole Miss, Kentucky, and UT/FSU teams that likely have 8 win ceilings in 2025.
It will be an interesting year. I'm curious to what everyone else thinks, but don't talk logos, talk specifics about a team. Yes, we get that a lot of people believe Napier is terrible on gameday, perhaps that's where a guy like Callaway getting more responsibility (if it happens) could help. But let's not turn it into another thread of just hating/loving Napier. Let's talk why a schedule with a ton of teams in transition should be seen as more of an opportunity than a hindrance in 2025 (in my opinion).
One last thing, if you haven't, hop over to youtube/@gatortruth and subscribe. Help the channel get to 500 subscribers.
Go Gators!
Before I do that, just my baseline thoughts on what I believe is a very talented team that with some other coaches, is definitely seen as better than the 6.5 or 7.5 over/under people have us at.
I believe that this Gators team returns a ton of experience and probably the best QB in the SEC. We return 4 on an OL that was pretty good after we stopped rotating a lot the first few games. We have one of the best RB duos in the SEC with Baugh and Jackson. We have a generally unproven, but talented WR room returning Tre Wilson (former Freshman All-American), Aidan Mizell, TJ Abrams, and Tank Hawkins to go with transfer J. Michael Sturdivant, 5 star freshman Dallas Wilson, and highly touted true freshman Vernell Brown III. I'm also going to believe that since we announced the move to OC this year for Callaway that he improves the route trees for the receivers so that there are some easier throws for DJ and some less predictability in the passing game. He did call the FCS's top passing game at Samford in 2018, got their QB the Payton Award and lead FSU in Tally for a significant portion of a game. He may or may not end up being the guy to take this offense to the upper echelons of the sport, but I do think if the rumor of Callaway calling plays is true, it could pay dividends. DJ showed last year he could make throws into tight windows that few QB's could make, now Callaway might be able to provide him and the receivers the opportunities to have throws into space that anyone could make and allow the WR's to do work after the catch.
On Defense, the starting DL is great and the backups on the outside are also fine, but there is question about the DT depth. The LB unit with Howard, Robinson, Chiles and Graham is up there with the best units in the SEC returning plenty of game experience. At corner, Johnson and Moore, if healthy should be a good unit. Denson and Gates (when healthy) at Nickel is a good combo to have along with some work they've done at safety. Speaking of safety, Thornton and Castell bring a litany of experience, if nothing else. This defense has experience, there is no youth excuse.
I say all that to put in the framing for the schedule. This is how I feel the Gators should perform. I do know there are questions about coaching decisions and I am well aware of the current staff's 0 wins on the road against winning teams and terrible record against winning teams overall (2-5 in 2024 regular season). I will just hope that some of those things have been fixed through things like Callaway and returning experience advantages that UF has in a ton of games this season.
It is easier to be in detail about earlier big games as a lot of the analysis comes from catching some teams early. While later one, it becomes more of a guessing game so we go with what we have months in advance.
LIU
There is no way this should be an issue. I would really entertain the notion of sitting guys like Banks if they are not 100%. This is the worst team to come to the Swamp since possibly 2018.
USF
There are those that look at the USF and Bama game from 2023 or the 2022 game in The Swamp and figure this will be a 4 quarter affair. The Bulls were 7-6 last year and it took 5 OT's in the bowl game to avoid a losing record. There is no reason we shouldn't be able to run at will if necessary on a G5 DL and have this game out of reach by We Are the Boys.
At LSU
Let's get controversial. LSU lost 4 OL, including 1st and 3rd round OT's. One report said the one returner is moving from center to guard to let a Virginia Tech transfer be the starter at center so they'll have new starters in all 5 positions. They lost 4/5 of their top guys in receptions, but do have talent and brought in talent like Brown from Kentucky. One of those top guys in receptions was the best TE in program history and there are question marks at that position now. They lost their starting DL and 23 of 34 sacks from last year. They did bring in guys like Pyburn from UF and Payton from FSU. They have an extremely talented LB room headlined by the weeks brothers, so much so they are moving talented LB Harold Perkins to Star. Their pass D was 76th in the nation last year, but lost a number of guys and is relying on transfers.
That is a lot of transition. The biggest transition is that of the offensive line, and that is with the one last year giving up 7 sacks to the Gators. That is the type of transition where it could take a month or more into the season to figure out the best combinations for everything. This game is in Death Valley. However, remove the logo, and if the narrative that has been pushed is that building from high school is better than the portal, with the experience that the Gators return, you have to prove the narrative right. If this game were in mid-October or November, the feeling is different. It is game 3, there is little reason on paper, why a good coach can't take advantage of LSU's transition early in the season.
At Miami
Where LSU lost a ton of starters on their OL, Miami returns 4/5 and their starter at LG before injury last year. However, after that, Miami on offense replaces 4,300 yard passer Ward, 1,000 yd back Martinez (though a good 1/2 combo return), 1,100 yard receiver Restrepo (top 6 in yardage are all gone), and 7/10 of their leading tacklers. That is also a lot of transition.
Yes, Miami was decent last year, but also were close to being a 7-5 team but for ridiculous decisions by refs in the Virginia Tech and Cal games. The question for them is how good will Beck be behind that OL and will all the new receivers be able to have success. Notably, they brought in CJ Daniels from LSU who only had 480 yards in 2024, but had over 1,000 in 2023 at Liberty.
Their starting DL is being replaced, but they return quality at the edge positions (9 combined sacks in 2024). Pretty solid at DT. LB's are solid lead by Bissanthe, but questions on other position. The secondary is relying on multiple transfers and they are replacing their top 2 safeties from 2024.
Though an away game, the high transition early in the season definitely makes this one I believe with adequate coaching the Gators should win on paper. Add in the revenge motivation. For the second weekend in a row the clash of portal use ideologies will happen.
Texas
After both teams have a bye, Texas comes to the Swamp for their first SEC game of 2025. They will have already taken a trip to the horseshoe and though that might have better coaching and/or team, the atmosphere is not the Swamp. It will be interesting as Manning takes over at QB, they replace 4 OL starters and are now in the loudest environment starting so far, with new receivers, but returning their top RB's. Texas is relying on 5 transfer DT's for that interior, but return significant production elsewhere on defense.
The reason this is the second toughest game on the Gators schedule is because it is at home. This is the most talented team that Florida will face. We have seen the Swamp create magic before and there is a chance here if the Gators are healthy. The key might be to test those DT's early and often, running to shorten the game. Florida might not be able to win a shootout, but might be able to win a game close going into the 4th quarter at home. If the passing game becomes what talent suggests it could, this might be a night in Gainesville a whole generation of Gator fans haven't seen. This remains to be seen, but with the changes in personnel on offense for the Longhorns, if The Swamp comes alive, there might just be magic.
At Texas A&M
The toughest game on Florida's schedule. A&M returns their entire OL, Marcel Reed, top RB's and top WR (lost the next 4). They return a lot on defense including Pre-Season All-American LB York. They bring in guys like TJ Searcy, who showed talent at Florida.
This is an A&M team looking to take things to the next level. Reed only threw for 1,800 yards last season. If he gets the passing game going, this is a very dangerous team. The Gators have not taken a trip and faced a great Aggie team in front of 100,000+ before. 2012 didn't have that large of a stadium, the crowd was limited in 2020 and in 2022, the fans hardly cared in November, especially with a ton of injuries and more players missing due to the flu and an 11 am local kickoff.
There is always a chance and it might be to get some big passing plays to silence the crowd. The question is, in year 2 of Mike Elko, what does this A&M team look like at home and what will the Gators look like coming into the game. It could be 5-0 ceiling, it could be 2-3 floor.
Mississippi State
The Bulldogs return Blake Shapen, but have a great amount elsewhere. I believe the Bulldogs in time might become a problem for teams under Jeff Lebby, but that is not this year and that is not in the Swamp.
Georgia (Jax)
The big line from last year is the Gators win but for Lagway's injury. There is some validity, but it is not a certainty.
The Bulldogs return only 12 starters, Gunner Stockton takes over at QB and was ok in the SEC Championship and Playoff games. They have 4 new OL starters, though the OL was shaky at times last year. They lead the nation in drops last year and have brought in Branch from USC to try and improve the WR room. The defense reloads and Kirby Smart can put together a good defense. The big question for the Gators as the series ends its stint in Jacksonville for a few years is if not now, when, for a victory over the Bulldogs? If the big line is correct, this is the Gators best chance as any to take down Smart and the Bulldogs.
At Kentucky
Massive turnover at Kentucky after last year's losing season. The question is can the Gators get their first win in Lexington since 2019? If not, it is a bad, bad sign. This should be only a small step above Mississippi State in difficulty and a win for the Gators.
At Ole Miss
The great conundrum in Gator Nation is that many simultaneously will talk about how bad of a coach Lane Kiffin is, but then fear playing a Mississippi school. This Ole Miss team replaces 18ish starters and multiple back ups from last season. This team is heavily built from the portal. This is the end of a 6 game stretch that sees Ole Miss playing Washington State, Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, The Citadel and Florida. Only 4 SEC schools have 6 game stretches in this season with 2 bye weeks and Florida gets Ole Miss in game 6. Yes, it is on the road. Yes, it is a revenge game for Ole Miss. However, if the narrative pushed is "the right way" is not building through the portal, this is a must win over a completely rebuilt team at the end of a 6 game stretch.
Tennessee
QB? Gone. Top Receivers? Gone. Dylan Sampson? Gone. OL? 4 new starters. The defense returns a ton of experience and talent.
Tennessee has a bye week and New Mexico State the two weeks prior to coming to The Swamp, a place they haven't won in over 20 years. There are students who were not alive the last time this happened. If both teams are healthy, only coaching (and this includes attitude of teams due to records) could prevent a Gator victory at home in late November.
FSU
If Mike Norvell can build a team in one year to go from 2-10 to winning in The Swamp against the most talented and balanced Florida Gators football team in a long time, there are problems at UF. It is that simple. The Gators should and must win this rivalry game.
****************************
Every game is winnable for UF in 2025. That is not to say that a prediction is 12-0. Certain teams (LSU, Miami, and Ole Miss) cause more worry because of the logos than the facts surrounding the teams themselves.
The most likely outcome, with decent coaching is 9-3. A good coach at UF starts 4-0 catching two heavily transitioning teams early, hits a bye week, snags just 1 of 3 between Texas, A&M, and UGA, and then ends 4-0 in the last 4 games with Ole Miss, Kentucky, and UT/FSU teams that likely have 8 win ceilings in 2025.
It will be an interesting year. I'm curious to what everyone else thinks, but don't talk logos, talk specifics about a team. Yes, we get that a lot of people believe Napier is terrible on gameday, perhaps that's where a guy like Callaway getting more responsibility (if it happens) could help. But let's not turn it into another thread of just hating/loving Napier. Let's talk why a schedule with a ton of teams in transition should be seen as more of an opportunity than a hindrance in 2025 (in my opinion).
One last thing, if you haven't, hop over to youtube/@gatortruth and subscribe. Help the channel get to 500 subscribers.
Go Gators!
