- Sep 6, 2014
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The dominance of Alabama in the count of 5-stars, vs the number of NFL players, strongly suggests an Alabama halo effect is affecting the player ratings done by the various rating services. In other words, (according to this theory/interpretation), kids who commit to Alabama tend to get a bump in their ratings. The film or notes etc on each player that talent rankers at Scout and the other services use doesn't necessarily change, but the Saban endorsement influences how "the data" is re-interpreted.
(That's IF the talent-ranker actually goes back and does a re-evaluation. I suspect 90% of all the ratings of high school players are based on a collection and weighting of Other People's Opinions, many of which themselves are primarily based on a collection and weighting of Other People's Opinions. We're all subject to this bias. We have a different opinion of a kid's talent and potential, without ever having seen him play, if we know he's being recruited by Urban at OSU vs FIU.)
I don't doubt at all that Alabama is getting the best talent, but there are systematic biases in the rating systems that overstate their advantage in that area. (But I also think Saban does an excellent job of coaching 'em up, and getting them prepared. I don't like him, but he IS awful good at what he does.)
