Upfront: my goal is to grow my TSP/401k but mitigate big losses (especially if predictable). I’ve got about 30 years until retirement and I don’t mind being aggressive but not “options trading” aggressive. I’ve been reading a lot recently about seasonal investing. Seems like there is some validity to it but you have to really be into investing to make it work or “time” the season. Stuff I’ve looked into: May/November sell/buy seasonal timing Sy Harding’s take on Seasonal timing Fabian PENTAD Fabian seems to track the S&P 500 buy and hold strategy well, the two seasonal timing strategies fall short of S&P, and PENTAD outperforms but seems fairly intensive to make work. I used this site to read up plus others: Extrategic Dashboard - Seasonal Timing Strategy (Updated) Based on what I’m seeing, unless you are really dedicated, buy and hold - except in extreme circumstances - seems to be best. But I came across this claim: Best TSP Allocation Strategy That suggests otherwise. On the surface, the claim makes sense but seems to rely on some “Bellweather” model that predicts when to drop out for the summer/fall and when to jump in late fall. Has the feeling of BS but it’s intriguing. So questions: Is any form of seasonal trading junk science aimed at selling services? On the first site, it claims the upside of seasonal investing is that it increases “risk adjusted investing”. What does that mean - risk or no risk, the S&P buy and hold outperformed those strategies by double over 40 years - what am I missing? Is there an upside to using these strategies to diversifying part of a portfolio? End state: really just trying to start a conversation novice/intermediate investors can participate in if they want to take their retirement investing a little further. Also trying to lay the groundwork for jumping into a little more aggressive investing, like a personal trading account on E Trade. Thanks for any responses and look forward to the conversation!