Truth Takes: Kentucky 2019 Preview

Discussion in 'Main Sports Forum' started by GatorTruth133, Sep 12, 2019.

  1. GatorTruth133

    GatorTruth133 UF Law Grad
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    For the first time in my life time we are going into a Kentucky game without a win. Now, there are some here (jokes withheld) who believe at least one of the following; that last years win wasn't to a 10 win team that finished in the to 25, that missing David Reese, Cece Jefferson, Shawn Davis and Marco Wilson was a minimal factor at best, that Benny Snell as a four year back was as productive as Dee Hart at Alabama, that Josh Allen got drafted lower than all UF oline not named Jawaan Taylor, and Mark Stoops wishes that one day he could have WiLLLLLLLie Taggart's acumen. Boy, did I wish that was 100% parody.

    Anyway, Kentucky was a good team last year that caught as at a great time for them and we also had plenty of fail from Franks' failure to see Davis, THAT "missed" FG (though this is more of an official thing), dropped passes, and safety play that allowed two long TD's.

    Now that we are caught up, for the second year in a row Kentucky will be starting a transfer QB we haven't played against. Sawyer Smith from everything I've heard and read is less mobile than Terry Wilson. Kentucky does not have a single returning starter from their 2018 defensive backfield. And hell, I'm tired of watching that F-ing Kash Daniel highlight, just like how Wes Byrum's chomp after winning the 2007 Auburn game was in the opening for the college football shows for years. If I am Dan Mullen, I am putting that highlight on replay throughout the football facility, before each snap of watching game film, nonstop in the locker room, and even have each teacher play it before each class. Piss them off.

    Offense
    Kentucky's 2019 defense is not up to the level of their 2018 though they are still dangerous. We will need to attack Kentucky's secondary early and often to limit the pass rush. Last year, the oline struggle against Allen and company. Despite this, we leaned on Franks more than we should. RJ Raymond was targeted on and dropped multiple companies.

    Last year's loss did turn a switch for this team. We saw a lot more quick strike passing the following weeks in wins on the road at Tennessee, at #FailState, and against LSU (CSU omitted). This quick strike attack opened up some running room. Something we have not done necessarily well this year. At times though in our first two games we have had runs of 10+, but plenty of bad blocking. Example being the 4th and 1 against UT-Martin where Franks was stopped. The left tackle decides to crash on the end who was occupied by the guard in a double team instead of continuing to lead the way, leaving the linebacker with a beeline to the hole. These mistakes cannot happen against a well-coached Mark Stoops defense.

    I think Copeland provides us with a new fancy weapon and we see a varied bit off play-calling to take advantage of a defense still finding its legs.

    Defense
    Last season, Wilson's legs caused issues for Florida's defense. Smith doesn't have those legs, but has a good arm from what we've been told. A young CB will probably get their first start Saturday. The experience they have received already is much better than what Dean had last year before coming on for Wilson. They weren't in the game against a triple option, they actually had to play the pass. Elam's technique on his pick was beautiful, box out defending.

    Last year we were missing Reese, Davis, and Jefferson. Two of those three return. Jefferson is being replaced with a beast from Louisville named Jonathon Greenard. This pass rush has come to another level. Kentucky is replacing a few members of their offensive line and have not seen a pass rush like they will face Saturday.

    The keys to the defense this game will be run defense and safety play. If we can slow the running game and force Kentucky through the air, it will be interesting to see if they can handle a pass rush averaging 7.5 sacks a game with one game of minimal blitzing. The safety play has been questionable, but perhaps a return by Stewart and matching him with Davis could help. If Florida can solidify safety play and have a decent run defense, this defense will be hard to beat.


    ST
    Not looking for much other than everyone keep doing what their doing, except the punt return game, someone needs to work on that immediately.

    The Offense doesn't need to do much, just enough. I think we can see more than that with the weapons we have. The coaches just need to call it. They've had some good plays dialed up that we've seen players fail (see Davis fumble against Miami) and we've seen playcalls that were questionable at best (see the last offensive play against Miami). Defense will give Smith little time to make decisions and throws.

    If Wilson is playing, I'm more nervous.

    Florida 31, Kentucky 14
     
    • Jbossgator8

      Jbossgator8 Senior Member
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      Great read as always, thanks. I hope you are right about the outcome.
       
      • maheo30

        maheo30 WiLLLLLLLie! WiLLLLLLLie!
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        This was an entirely different gator team last year. They were coming off the disaster that was Butters. They had no identity or self-confidence. My take,

        1. Franks is better than he was last season.

        2. The o-line is much improved over what UK faced last season. Still, there's no Moral Stephens any more. We need a TE to step up in run blocking.

        3. We are more physical. Miller is a huge upgrade from VJ. The biggest improvement are the DTs. I don't think UK pushes us around like they did last year. Greenard certainly won't get his azz kicked like Polite did.

        4. So many weapons in the passing game against such a young secondary.

        5. UK hasn't exactly lit it up on the scoreboard. Both of their games (Toledo and E. Mich.) were still in doubt headed into the 4th. That's bad.
         
        • Gator Fever

          Gator Fever Senior Member

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          Not as confident as you but maybe we can rattle that QB and win going away.

          I think the only big advantage we have over them is on their secondary and will we be able to take that big advantage? Not sure though I think Franks will complete at least one deep bomb on them.
           
        • Frozen Gator

          Frozen Gator Well-Known Member
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          I hope our defense plays like a Florida defense. I think our offense will be conservative overall, run, bubble screen, dink and dunk. Then `when Kentucky crowds the line of scrimmage BOOM we hit the home run, several times. It all depends on Franks discipline and accuracy.

          24-10 Good Guys!
           
          • ltraz

            ltraz Well-Known Member

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            Shocker.

            J/K man. I was understanding your concerns with um, but this is a team we should handle. We should have handled them beofre Wilson went down although he would have guaranteed a few big plays against the best DC in football. Without that threat, edge guys can pin their ears back and granthem can throw any blitz and games he wants and not worry about DTs getting outside.
             
            • Gator Fever

              Gator Fever Senior Member

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              Just like the Miami game I hope you guys are right but I see a close game myself being most likely unless we are plus 2 in turnovers. He is mobile enough to burn you some with his legs if you are wreckless but obviously not the football speed Wilson has. And unlike those new Miami tackles Kentucky's will actually move when the ball is snapped. I think if we get more than a sack or two on him it will be because he froze with the blitz not because of our edge guys just dominating their linemen.
               
            • Frozen Gator

              Frozen Gator Well-Known Member
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              This will not be a cake walk. Kentucky will attempt to run straight at us with malice. The new qb did beat LSU at home while at Troy.I believe we will win but we better treat this as a top notch opponent or we could come home licking our wounds wondering how in the he!! they did that.
               
            • ltraz

              ltraz Well-Known Member

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              UK actually has the highest passblocking efficiency right now per PFF. However, we have 2 of the top 5 edgerushers and JZ is actually their highest graded edge player overall. Plus, if granthem is going to bring inside pressure against the last two teams we've faced that we severely outmatched on the edge, he's definitely going to do it against two good OTs. I haven't watched enough uk to have any idea how they do on pickups. I agree that it won't be a matter of us dominating their edge guys though.
               
              • SeabeeGator

                SeabeeGator Well-Known Member
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                I’m not worried about UK’s offense much. I’m worried about our offense and their defense. They may have a new defensive backfield but their front 7 are solid. Same story as Miami. Cause for concern.
                 
              • ltraz

                ltraz Well-Known Member

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                He helped by relaying in calls to the starting QB who was the one that actually played all the snaps against lsu. Smith's best win was South Alabama or Georgia Southern. Texas State and App St held him to 12 and 10 points so it is possible.
                 
              • Frozen Gator

                Frozen Gator Well-Known Member
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                My bad, thanks
                 
                • SeabeeGator

                  SeabeeGator Well-Known Member
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                  Well... we know that USA has been an issue for Mullen and GSU has been an issue for UF in the past.... I hope this doesn’t send @Gator Fever into a fear spiral...
                   
                  • Gator Fever

                    Gator Fever Senior Member

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                    Smith had big performances in their bowl game and against Louisiana etc and had like a 50 yard run against Nebraska. I hope they keep him from doing much.





                     
                    #14 Gator Fever, Sep 13, 2019
                    Last edited: Sep 13, 2019
                    • SeabeeGator

                      SeabeeGator Well-Known Member
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                      I was joking! Didn’t actually want you to start spiraling!!! Its ok man - we’ll make it through this game. The big scary QB with G5 notches in his belt won’t be too much.
                       
                      • Pablos Tunnel

                        Pablos Tunnel Well-Known Member
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                        Going to out 50 on them. Mark it down.
                         
                      • ltraz

                        ltraz Well-Known Member

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                        He's not quite Brantley. But that was against a nebraska team when their safeties ran themselves out of the play. He's a 4.9 guy, which puts him about the same as Greenard. That means he'll be in the group of QBs we play that we don't worry about running more than any other person with two legs.

                        Their only chance is throwing it up to their tall WRs, bc granthem will put our shorter guys in tons of 1v1s and some jump ball situations.
                         

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