Hard to say how much the emotion of the situation will get to Mullen. Presuming he's the consummate professional, it won't. Hard to say how much the atmosphere will affect our players. Despite the damned cowbells, if over 100K fans who hate our guts and were loud as hell didn't affect them last week, the noise and fans in Starkvegas won't affect them this week.
I'm not sure how good MSU really is. They destroyed SFA, a I-AA team (just like we did Charleston). They blew out lower level I-A Louisiana (from Sun Belt conf). We blew out (by the score) Colo State, Mountain West is a bit > Sun Belt. They beat Big XII K-State, probably similar to our win over Vols, except ours counted in the SEC standings, and that didn't for them. And we both lost to UK. They have a large O-Line, it could be a problem.
I think it's going to be close either way, less than the current 9 pt line. I'm going with good guys, 27-24, on a late MacPherson FG.