ESPN's FPI predicts UF record of 9-3

[BMF]

Football Power Index predicts each game on Florida's schedule

https://247sports.com/college/flori...cts-each-game-on-UFs-2018-schedule-119393306/

(all 12 games are in the link, I'll cut-and-paste the three predicted losses):

September 29 - At Mississippi State

ESPN FPI Projection: Mississippi State win

UF Win Probability: 33.7%

Projected Record: 4-1
----

October 27 - Georgia (in Jacksonville)

ESPN FPI Projection: Georgia win

UF Win Probability: 21.3%

Projected Record: 6-2
----

November 24 - At Florida State

ESPN FPI Projection: Florida State win

UF Win Probability: 39.4%

Projected Record: 9-3

(for the closer games: 65.5% chance vs. South Carolina, 67.5% vs. Missouri, 65% vs. LSU, 66.7% vs. UT)

When projecting a team with over an 80-percent win probability, the FPI was correct in predicting the winner 90-percent of the time. However, when the win probability for a team was from 50 to 70-percent, the FPI only hit on 54-percent of those games, making them truly toss-up contests.

 

[maheo30]

In other words, the rise of Trask vaults UF to a winning season.

 

[Windy City Gator]

I will take 9-3 if the offense shows to be entertaining.

 

[Gatorraid81]

With that easy schedule, 9-3 should be our floor.

 

[soflagator]

Maybe I'm alone in this, but I'd almost rather see us stumble in an upset loss somewhere if it meant winning 1 or 2 games in which we're considered underdogs. The 9-3 record is fine, but that prediction basically says we beat all the teams that we're supposed to beat, and lose to the teams that are real challenges. I wouldn't be appalled, I'd just like to see us beat one of uga/fsu and am not thrilled at the idea that we can't beat Msu with a brand new HC.

I guess it would mean a sweep at home, which would be welcome after last year's October.

 

[BMF]

Maybe I'm alone in this, but I'd almost rather see us stumble in an upset loss somewhere if it meant winning 1 or 2 games in which we're considered underdogs. The 9-3 record is fine, but that prediction basically says we beat all the teams that we're supposed to beat, and lose to the teams that are real challenges. I wouldn't be appalled, I'd just like to see us beat one of uga/fsu and am not thrilled at the idea that we can't beat Msu with a brand new HC.

I guess it would mean a sweep at home, which would be welcome after last year's October.

4 games are "toss-ups" in those predictions (that we're projected to win). The games we're predicted to lose are pretty much "guaranteed" losses (from the historical statistics of the FPI predictor).

I'd like to see the predictor again after we've played 3 or 4 games (and our opponents have played 3 or 4). Several of those teams could be better...or worse than predicted.

 

[-THE DUDE-]

Maybe I'm alone in this, but I'd almost rather see us stumble in an upset loss somewhere if it meant winning 1 or 2 games in which we're considered underdogs. The 9-3 record is fine, but that prediction basically says we beat all the teams that we're supposed to beat, and lose to the teams that are real challenges. I wouldn't be appalled, I'd just like to see us beat one of uga/fsu and am not thrilled at the idea that we can't beat Msu with a brand new HC.

I guess it would mean a sweep at home, which would be welcome after last year's October.

Agreed...I’m ok with losing in an upset to a lesser team if we can beat one of the big dogs on our schedule. That’s what would help get us back on the map

 

[gatorkev85]

I'd take 9-3 in a heartbeat. Add that with a top 8 recruiting class and I'd be very pleased. I'd even take 9-3 for the following year as long as we finished with a top 5 class then. After that I'd like to see us competing for playoff spots and competing for top 3 classes from then on out. That would be year 3 for Mullen. I think that is reasonable expectations.

 

[MJMGator]

I’d take 9-3. 7-5 is more likely

 

[KronoGator]

We're beating Georgia.

 

[OurProgramIsBroken]

Football Power Index predicts each game on Florida's schedule

https://247sports.com/college/flori...cts-each-game-on-UFs-2018-schedule-119393306/

(all 12 games are in the link, I'll cut-and-paste the three predicted losses):

September 29 - At Mississippi State

ESPN FPI Projection: Mississippi State win

UF Win Probability: 33.7%

Projected Record: 4-1
----

October 27 - Georgia (in Jacksonville)

ESPN FPI Projection: Georgia win

UF Win Probability: 21.3%

Projected Record: 6-2
----

November 24 - At Florida State

ESPN FPI Projection: Florida State win

UF Win Probability: 39.4%

Projected Record: 9-3

(for the closer games: 65.5% chance vs. South Carolina, 67.5% vs. Missouri, 65% vs. LSU, 66.7% vs. UT)

When projecting a team with over an 80-percent win probability, the FPI was correct in predicting the winner 90-percent of the time. However, when the win probability for a team was from 50 to 70-percent, the FPI only hit on 54-percent of those games, making them truly toss-up contests.

 

[Gator Fever]

I guess that FPI doesn't account for factors like Franks at QB..

 

[gatordad3]

I'd take 9-3 if that includes beating Georgia and FSU.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

Football Power Index predicts each game on Florida's schedule

https://247sports.com/college/flori...cts-each-game-on-UFs-2018-schedule-119393306/

(all 12 games are in the link, I'll cut-and-paste the three predicted losses):

September 29 - At Mississippi State

ESPN FPI Projection: Mississippi State win

UF Win Probability: 33.7%

Projected Record: 4-1
----

October 27 - Georgia (in Jacksonville)

ESPN FPI Projection: Georgia win

UF Win Probability: 21.3%

Projected Record: 6-2
----

November 24 - At Florida State

ESPN FPI Projection: Florida State win

UF Win Probability: 39.4%

Projected Record: 9-3S

(for the closer games: 65.5% chance vs. South Carolina, 67.5% vs. Missouri, 65% vs. LSU, 66.7% vs. UT)

When projecting a team with over an 80-percent win probability, the FPI was correct in predicting the winner 90-percent of the time. However, when the win probability for a team was from 50 to 70-percent, the FPI only hit on 54-percent of those games, making them truly toss-up contests.

Miss State along with UTn have new coaches who have never been head coaches before. That usually leads to errors of game management and other bad decisions at least the first year. Also these first time coaches tend to have struggles that the hyper in the press time after time do not expect. So I like UF's chance better in both those games.

 

[BMF]

Miss State along with UTn have new coaches who have never been head coaches before. That usually leads to errors of game management and other bad decisions at least the first year. Also these first time coaches tend to have struggles that the hyper in the press time after time do not expect. So I like UF's chance better in both those games.

Moorehead was a FCS head coach.

 

[Gator Fever]

I wonder why they have us favored that much against LSU. My guess is they will have the advantage at QB that game and they still have some talent there. I would have it a 50/50 game probably.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

Moorehead was a FCS head coach.

Thanks for catching that. Maybe he worked out some kinks doing that. We shall see. I know lots of media guys view them as really good this year. I wonder if we will see some revision to the mean.

 

[lizardbreath]

10-3 with a win in a mid-range bowl game, including a win over FSU, would make me feel much better about the shape of things to come. Throw in a top ten class with at least one 5* recruit, and I'm talking major schytt to anyone who'll listen. And yes, that includes the naysayers on this board.

 

[t-gator]

I’d take 9-3. 5-7 is more likely

FIFY

 

[Swamp Donkey]

I love the GCMB crowdthink that "no coordinator can ever be a great HC" and "no DC can ever be a great HC". So divorced from reality.