Florida football: First look at Gators’ keys to success in the Cocktail Party
1. Slow the Georgia power running game
The Dawgs didn’t look it against LSU, but this is a dangerous and balanced offense led once again by an effective power running game.
Despite being limited to 113 yards rushing and only 3.8 yards per carry at LSU, Georgia still ranks 24th nationally in rushing offense and averages 5.8 yards per carry on the ground.
Georgia likewise ranks No. 6 nationally in rushing efficiency offense despite the LSU debacle and is 20th in explosive runs.
Elijah “The New Deal” Holyfield, a powerful and fast back who loves to square up tacklers downhill, is the most frightening runner for a Gators defense that enters the game ranked a concerning 10th in the SEC in tackling rate. Holyfield averages 7.5 yards a carry and ranks second in the SEC in yards gained after contact, behind only Kentucky’s Benny Snell (Florida’s Jordan Scarlett is third).
Florida ranks
12th nationally in S&P+ defense and 21st nationally in total defense, but they rank only 73rd in rushing defense, largely thanks to missed tackles and the lack of a truly effective three-technique or pile-mover along the interior of the defensive line.
Georgia knows this, and this matchup is the biggest concern for the Gators and the key to the football game.
2. Limit explosive plays down the field
This matchup is slightly more favorable for Florida, but it’s still “Advantage Georgia,” in our view.
Florida’s defense is outstanding at limiting successful plays by opposing offenses (opponent success rate 33.4 percent is 9th best nationally), but the Gators have two clear defensive weaknesses.
The first is run defense, discussed above.
The second is the Gators give up too many explosive plays.
Some of that goes with the Todd Grantham territory, but against a team with Georgia’s perimeter playmakers, that’s a big worry.
Georgia will enter the Cocktail Party an impressive 18th nationally in explosiveness and they’ll face a Gators defense that ranks 63rdnationally in limiting explosive plays.
As the above graphic demonstrates, Jake Fromm has improved as a passer in 2018 but struggled to hit big throws downfield this year in the aftermath of Javon Wims’s departure for the NFL.
Still, Georgia isn’t without home run hitters, as Mecole Hardmon (15.0), Terry Godwin (21.4) and Jeremiah Holloman (21.3) each average 15 yards or more per reception.
If Florida is forced to bring extra help into the box to tackle Holyfield and D’Andre Swift in the running game, Georgia will be in an excellent position to take shots downfield and, as Kentucky demonstrated, Florida has been susceptible to big plays in the downfield passing game this season.
3. Get the pass rush going again
The Gators’ pass rush dominated Mississippi State and LSU, but was asleep at the wheel for much of the 11 a.m. Central Time kickoff at Vanderbilt last weekend. Not until a late sack by Jachai Polite stalled a Vanderbilt drive in the fourth quarter were the Gators able to sack Vandy quarterback Kyle Shurmer, and Florida struggled to get any consistent pressure against a Vanderbilt front not regarded as one of the SEC’s best units.
This is an area of the game that should favor Florida.
Polite leads the SEC in quarterback pressures on the season (23) and Jabari Zuniga is fourth (19). LSU is not quite as good up front as Florida defensively, but the Tigers whipped Georgia at the point of attack —which should make protecting Fromm better in Jacksonville a personal challenge to the Georgia line. Florida will need to rise to the occasion and get loose in the backfield against Georgia to limit the success of Jim Chaney’s offense in the passing game. All four of Fromm’s interceptions this year have come under pressure, and part of Florida’s formula for winning all season has been producing takeaways and short fields. This is a battle Florida
must win to have a chance.
4. Stay composed and in the moment
Most of Florida’s upperclassmen have played in two SEC title games, meaning they have experience in a game of this magnitude.
It’s different when you are a leader, though, and it’s different when you haven’t played a game this big in a season or two.
Against a team as good as Georgia, adversity is inevitable. Bad plays will happen, and the Gators will need to rally and focus on the next play constantly, something they did successfully in the upset win over LSU.
Florida needs to stay in the moment and remember it earned the chance to play a football game this big by winning two other big football games — at Mississippi State and home against LSU —during the past month.
Florida’s composure and ability to stay in the moment will set the tone for limiting mental mistakes, something the Gators have struggled with at times this season. Florida has had double-digit penalty performances and unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in wins over Mississippi State and at Vanderbilt. the Gators simply aren’t good enough to give Georgia free yards and plays Saturday if they want to win.