Charting Pass Plays vs Utah

[Sec14Gator]

Due to self hatred, I tracked every called pass regardless of how the play turned out (penalty, scramble, sack) and every Mertz pass depth (also regardless of result). Due to this, the numbers don't fully match up and the numbers don't match the box score. But, it gives you some strong patterns.

One commentary from many are the limited downfield receivers/routes (DFR). For this, any receiver more than 4 yards downfield, I counted as a DFR.

Here is the breakdown:

1 or 0 DFR (think screens) - 12 (including a 3rd and 22, and a 4th and 14)
2 DFR - 15 (3 of our sacks and ran this on a 3rd and long and 4th and long. Both failed. Both sacks)
3DFR - 18 (includes 1 sack and the play to Pearsall, which was borderline at 4/5 yards when needing 7)
4DFR - 9 (includes 1 sack and short yardage EP, where I adjusted for field depth, but we sent out all 5, 4 with some depth)
5DFR - 1 (maybe, couldn't see 5th receiver, but I'll credit him as being down field)

half of our plays are 2 DFR or less and 60% of our sacks are 2DFRs. Often the 3DFR plays have a guy barely 5 yards down field.
Less than 20% of passes have 4DFRs or more.

Side note: I don't know if it was injury or something else, but Jackson was involved in the first quarter and then barely spotted on the field. Maybe he got hurt on the ball across the middle.

For Mertz

Throws at or behind the line of scrimmage (again, counted even if called back for penalty, or don't count for defensive PI) - 18.

Throws 5 yards or less - 12.

5-10 yards - 3

10-20 yards - 7 (3 completions)

20+ yards - 6 (3 completions)

Overall comments. 2/3 of all throws were 4 yards or less. I thought Mertz missed more behind the line throws. It was really only 3 bad throws on these and nearly all were early in the game, plus the one on a 4 yard pass to Pearsall on the pick. 1 or 2 got called back, but when judging the 70% completion percentage, consider he had 16 passes at or behind the line, including 3 pop/shuffle passes.

Of his 6/13 completions on 10+ yard completions, 1 was the awful throw to pearsall. I remember it being behind Pearsall because he was 8 yards past any defender. But, I did not recall him throwing him so out of bounds. Pearsall was running up the numbers and couldn't stay in bounds on the catch due to ball placement. Another 20 plus yard pass was the TD to Douglass that neither led him nor was a back shoulder throw. Good chance that is a pick against a good DB. He had 4 of 13 downfield throws that were good.

In sum, Mertz threw 30 passes under 5 yards down field, with at least 8 on downs we needed more than 6 (usually a good amount more) and did not get a first.

In fairness to Mertz a lot was being given to us or baiting us into it to run clock towards the end, but these have to impact how we view Mertz's performance. It wasn't bad, certainly. It also was not game impacting in any meaningfully positive manner.

Last observation, this does all reiterate that this offense, barring changes, cannot score quickly when needed by pushing the ball downfield and it cannot suffer anything 3rd and 7 or longer. Again, we could improve or completely change the gameplan. But, this is what we put on tape.

EDIT - I just finished doing this for an hour and found On3 made a video of every pass attempt. FML. The one time they do something helpful and I missed it.

 

[I Have No Friends :(]

Like I said on game night, he's the Kyle Orton of college football. The stats will look good (deceiving) and he can move the ball between the 20's, but when it comes to being an actual effective QB look elsewhere. His weak arm when it comes to the deep routes showed up again against Utah just like we saw in the spring game. For those who claim you can't take anything away from watching spring games, I counter with the fact that we managed to score 10 points with one squad and 7 with the other in the spring, then show up in Utah and score 11. I wasn't surprised at all, but apparently a lot of you were.

That being said, I'm not going to dump on the kid. He tried his best and kept going out there while getting beat to a pulp thanks to our 2-coach-led offensive line. Mertz is what he is at this point in his career, so it's not his fault he's being trotted out onto the field. Never blame the snake oil for not performing as advertised; that's all on the snake oil salesman.

 

[oxrageous]

I love the bag-over-the-head avatar trend. Can't wait to see who does it next!

 

[G8trwood]

Due to self hatred, I tracked every called pass regardless of how the play turned out (penalty, scramble, sack) and every Mertz pass depth (also regardless of result). Due to this, the numbers don't fully match up and the numbers don't match the box score. But, it gives you some strong patterns.

One commentary from many are the limited downfield receivers/routes (DFR). For this, any receiver more than 4 yards downfield, I counted as a DFR.

Here is the breakdown:

1 or 0 DFR (think screens) - 12 (including a 3rd and 22, and a 4th and 14)
2 DFR - 15 (3 of our sacks and ran this on a 3rd and long and 4th and long. Both failed. Both sacks)
3DFR - 18 (includes 1 sack and the play to Pearsall, which was borderline at 4/5 yards when needing 7)
4DFR - 9 (includes 1 sack and short yardage EP, where I adjusted for field depth, but we sent out all 5, 4 with some depth)
5DFR - 1 (maybe, couldn't see 5th receiver, but I'll credit him as being down field)

half of our plays are 2 DFR or less and 60% of our sacks are 2DFRs. Often the 3DFR plays have a guy barely 5 yards down field.
Less than 20% of passes have 4DFRs or more.

Side note: I don't know if it was injury or something else, but Jackson was involved in the first quarter and then barely spotted on the field. Maybe he got hurt on the ball across the middle.

For Mertz

Throws at or behind the line of scrimmage (again, counted even if called back for penalty, or don't count for defensive PI) - 18.

Throws 5 yards or less - 12.

5-10 yards - 3

10-20 yards - 7 (3 completions)

20+ yards - 6 (3 completions)

Overall comments. 2/3 of all throws were 4 yards or less. I thought Mertz missed more behind the line throws. It was really only 3 bad throws on these and nearly all were early in the game, plus the one on a 4 yard pass to Pearsall on the pick. 1 or 2 got called back, but when judging the 70% completion percentage, consider he had 16 passes at or behind the line, including 3 pop/shuffle passes.

Of his 6/13 completions on 10+ yard completions, 1 was the awful throw to pearsall. I remember it being behind Pearsall because he was 8 yards past any defender. But, I did not recall him throwing him so out of bounds. Pearsall was running up the numbers and couldn't stay in bounds on the catch due to ball placement. Another 20 plus yard pass was the TD to Douglass that neither led him nor was a back shoulder throw. Good chance that is a pick against a good DB. He had 4 of 13 downfield throws that were good.

In sum, Mertz threw 30 passes under 5 yards down field, with at least 8 on downs we needed more than 6 (usually a good amount more) and did not get a first.

In fairness to Mertz a lot was being given to us or baiting us into it to run clock towards the end, but these have to impact how we view Mertz's performance. It wasn't bad, certainly. It also was not game impacting in any meaningfully positive manner.

Last observation, this does all reiterate that this offense, barring changes, cannot score quickly when needed by pushing the ball downfield and it cannot suffer anything 3rd and 7 or longer. Again, we could improve or completely change the gameplan. But, this is what we put on tape.

EDIT - I just finished doing this for an hour and found On3 made a video of every pass attempt. FML. The one time they do something helpful and I missed it.

I just posted the GNFP review in the positive thread. Could we get a compare and contrast of your valiant effor vs on3 and gnfp?

 

[chferg]

I'll give you a hint why you didn't see Jackson. He sucks. Should have been told to take a hike after his Snapchat **** last year. Gator royalty or not. Dude sucks and should eat a big ol dick

 

[SGG]

I'll give you a hint why you didn't see Jackson. He sucks. Should have been told to take a hike after his Snapchat **** last year. Gator royalty or not. Dude sucks and should eat a big ol dick

Well, except for that whole first catch of the game thing, yeah

 

[GatorJ]

An important note as well. Andy Jean and Arlis Boardingham were nicked up. I expect them to add significantly to this offense over the next several weeks.

Sometimes it takes a bit for an offense to get rolling as they wait for the young players to season.

And before anybody jumps on me for comparing this to the 2008 team (it’s not even close.), I just want to remind you all that we struggled through the Ole Miss game. It was after that game that Demps and Rainey were fully integrated into the offense. You may remember that they had an amazing first game, and then disappeared for the next several games.

I think Jean becomes a starter (sprained LCL right now, I think). I think Arlis becomes a starter. And I think EWIII becomes a starter.

 

[soflagator]

An important note as well. Andy Jean and Arlis Boardingham were nicked up. I expect them to add significantly to this offense over the next several weeks.

Sometimes it takes a bit for an offense to get rolling as they wait for the young players to season.

And before anybody jumps on me for comparing this to the 2008 team (it’s not even close.), I just want to remind you all that we struggled through the Ole Miss game. It was after that game that Demps and Rainey were fully integrated into the offense. You may remember that they had an amazing first game, and then disappeared for the next several games.

I think Jean becomes a starter (sprained LCL right now, I think). I think Arlis becomes a starter. And I think EWIII becomes a starter.

So now you’re saying this is like the 2008 team?

 

[chferg]

I think honestly what Vegas should do for the rest of the year is instead of betting on the game itself, it should just do bets on how many plays Zanders/Odom gets over actual playmakers and if Mertz will complete a pass over 20 yards.

 

[Gatormac2112]

Like G8trwood stated and shared in another thread, the GNFP looked at this and I will share it here. Things that need to change if Billy is to save his job and/or make this offense successful:

1) Better route trees that put single defenders into trouble. Unfortunately bad route trees are so pervasive it needs a complete overhaul.
2) Take advantage of single man coverage, especially when defender is in soft coverage at the snap. Caleb could have had a huge day had they done this.
3) Develop a one drop/step quick passing game. For some reason even on quick slants we are taking a minimum of 3 steps back.
4) Have more checkdowns to RB over middle of field as throwing sideways to a flat footed RB/TE along the sideline gives no momentum or space to make a play.
5) Too many tight bunch set formations don't force the defense to defend the entire field. Akin to playing in a phonebooth.
6) Using playaction when its unnecessary and or detrimental. Pump fakes way off on timing and fooling nobody.

Theres much more but those are the continuing problems with this offense and his conclusion is that Billy needs an OC.

 

[chferg]

Like G8trwood stated and shared in another thread, the GNFP looked at this and I will share it here. Things that need to change if Billy is to save his job and/or make this offense successful:

1) Better route trees that put single defenders into trouble. Unfortunately bad route trees are so pervasive it needs a complete overhaul.
2) Take advantage of single man coverage, especially when defender is in soft coverage at the snap. Caleb could have had a huge day had they done this.
3) Develop a one drop/step quick passing game. For some reason even on quick slants we are taking a minimum of 3 steps back.
4) Have more checkdowns to RB over middle of field as throwing sideways to a flat footed RB/TE along the sideline gives no momentum or space to make a play.
5) Too many tight bunch set formations don't force the defense to defend the entire field. Akin to playing in a phonebooth.
6) Using playaction when its unnecessary and or detrimental. Pump fakes way off on timing and fooling nobody.

Theres much more but those are the continuing problems with this offense and his conclusion is that Billy needs an OC.

OC is only half the problem.

The entire problem is his system. If you hire an OC you have to let the OC call his system; if we stick to Billy's system it will be the same results

 

[GatorJ]

So now you’re saying this is like the 2008 team?

 

[soflagator]

Starting to rethink not going to Jax. I’d like to be there when Shemar thumps Milton on the second play.

 

[GatorJ]

Starting to rethink not going to Jax. I’d like to be there when Shemar thumps Milton on the second play.

3 important games IMO - dwags, nulls, and voles. Have to win 2 of 3.

 

[Okeechobee Joe]

The GNFP guy knows a lot more about football than I do. I listened to the last few minutes where he gave his summary of the Florida offense and what changes BN needs to make. I can see where GNFP is coming from.

But in my humble opinion the answer is not going to be found in charting pass plays. The answer is having Mertz distribute the ball to the running backs and get the running game revved up which is what needs to happen to have BN's system work.

Also I would give GNFP more cred if he didn't look like he just got out of bed in the morning,

 

[Zambo]

3 important games IMO - dwags, nulls, and voles. Have to win 2 of 3.

Probably gonna come up roughly 2 wins short of that goal.

 

[Gatormac2112]

OC is only half the problem.

The entire problem is his system. If you hire an OC you have to let the OC call his system; if we stick to Billy's system it will be the same results

Yes, he says that in the video as well. Total control to OC. Sorry I didn't mention that.

 

[Gatormac2112]

The GNFP guy knows a lot more about football than I do. I listened to the last few minutes where he gave his summary of the Florida offense and what changes BN needs to make. I can see where GNFP is coming from.

But in my humble opinion the answer is not going to be found in charting pass plays. The answer is having Mertz distribute the ball to the running backs and get the running game revved up which is
what needs to happen to have BN's system work.

Also I would give GNFP more cred if he didn't look like he just got out of bed in the morning,

But even if you do the things you mention, there are always going to be times when you need to pass the ball to achieve a desired result, and the route trees give the advantage to the defense, not the offense. And yes, the hair is awful.

 

[Zambo]

And yes, the hair is awful.

I laughed as I read this and looked at your avatar.

 

[NVGator]

Also I would give GNFP more cred if he didn't look like he just got out of bed in the morning,

And yes, the hair is awful.

Completely lost interest in that clown with his cock-a-doodle-doo hair.