Chip Kelly to UCLA: $4 Mil/Year

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Durfish

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Think I'm about here right now...
 
Sep 23, 2017
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As far as the betting line goes, I was just looking..the line on bovada is strictly to bet yes that he is the next coach only. its not a bet where you can bet one side or the other, chip kelly vs the field. Therefore, there is no risk to them to set the line however they want. them setting it low limits their exposure, and moving the line down like that creates the impression that there is big news out there and makes people think they need to jump on it quick before it goes down even more. Why pay out +800 if you can get the same action only paying out +125 or even money. Again, for comparisons sake, jon gruden only +150 to tennessee on the same site, precisely because there is no option to bet on the field against it happening. Does anyone out there really think that +150 accurately represents the odds of gruden going to Tennessee? The takeaway - you shouldn't read too far into these odds, or worry about them at all really, because there is nowhere you can put money on the other side of it. They're not affected by the usual gambling market forces of money on both sides, and therefore are not "real" odds reflective of any actual probabilities in any sense.
 

TLB

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Gator fans trying to keep up with the latest news on Chip Kelly:



Would that be considered an improvement from having to OL block each other? Not sure UAA would pay for the ice steps.
 

lagator

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Odds just moved to even money. In vegas odds he is the next coach at UCLA.
Well that sucks, but I happen to be in vegas right now. I'll stop at the sports book and see if I can confirm. Overseas sites like bovado and Vegas aren't the same thing. I'm guessing they won't have a line for it.

And a simple primer for anyone who doesn't get these odds still. It's simple really, it's all based on 100 dollar bets. If it's a negative number that's how much you have to bet to win 100. -110 is the typical odds for an even money bet like a point spread bet, you bet 110 to win 100. When it's a positive number that's how much you win from a 100 dollar bet so +400 means you get 500 from a 100 dollar bet, 400 winnings plus your 100 back.

If it is really +100 now on ck to UCLA that is the odds maker saying it's more likely than not that it happens since they are giving up their 10% "vig" which is their profit
 

Gatorraid81

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Seems like most of the updated news leaks out in the evening, can't wait to see the emotional rollercoaster we'll see again tonight. I'm thinking we still won't have any clearer answers. Really don't get why they would want to wait till after the Fsu game to announce Kelly, if he's the hire. Most of the fanbase has already written that game off as a loss and are desperately wanting some good news involving their football program. Hell if anything, it would add excitement to the fanbase and team I think, probably still lose, but at least we'd know the future would be bright.
 

GatorJ

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This really tells us nothing, any of us could have come up with the same vague answers.

This guys pretty connected. And he’s been spot on in the last year or so with insider information. I take it over anyone else on this board.
 

lagator

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As far as the betting line goes, I was just looking..the line on bovada is strictly to bet yes that he is the next coach only. its not a bet where you can bet one side or the other, chip kelly vs the field. Therefore, there is no risk to them to set the line however they want. them setting it low limits their exposure, and moving the line down like that creates the impression that there is big news out there and makes people think they need to jump on it quick before it goes down even more. Why pay out +800 if you can get the same action only paying out +125 or even money. Again, for comparisons sake, jon gruden only +150 to tennessee on the same site, precisely because there is no option to bet on the field against it happening. Does anyone out there really think that +150 accurately represents the odds of gruden going to Tennessee? The takeaway - you shouldn't read too far into these odds, or worry about them at all really, because there is nowhere you can put money on the other side of it. They're not affected by the usual gambling market forces of money on both sides, and therefore are not "real" odds reflective of any actual probabilities in any sense.
Agree with everything except that there is no risk to them. If they are only taking money on one side then every dollar they take is risk.
 

gator1946

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I'm gett'n out my Fleetwood Mac album, and playing it until a deal, any deal, is done. I might get real tired of those songs.

FMacRumours.PNG
 
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