I'm not debating any of the data or opinions on the matter, as they may both tell us exactly what we should expect. I'll reserve all judgement until I see the product on the field. But I still think the performance against ranked/non-ranked teams tells only part of the story. The simple fact is that whether or not teams like Aub, Lsu, Ala, ut, uga or UF had a ranking next to them in years they played, those teams almost across the board had considerably more talent. Imo, that should be considered.
Take his win against us in 2010. We were obviously a bad team that year, just as Lsu was last year, Aub in '14, etc. But he still lined up mostly 2 and 3* players against mostly 4 and 5* players and won. In the games against unranked opponents, he no doubt had a sizable talent advantage and typically won, with a few concerning exceptions. So any time he pulled a win against any of the above mentioned teams, as rare as it was, he was pulling an upset.
That leads me to believe that if he can amass talent here and at least be on level footing with all of our opponents, he can win. So to me, that's the biggest concern right now, and the one that has to be fixed. Because he's not shown the ability to consistently out coach teams that have more talent. But when I see his record, I still see someone who can win.