Let's talk Ole Miss Strategy and Matchups

[AlexDaGator]

Ole Miss Defense versus Florida Offense

It's an understatement to say we were damn good on 4th down last week. We were at our best.

It's safe to say Ole Miss defensive coaches aren't stupid. Pretty sure they watched that film and they'll never rush just three with a spy on Grier the whole game.

So what will they do?

Theirs is a very talented defense. This matchup is heavy in Ole MIss' favor and the primary reason why they are 7 point favorites against us in Gainesville.

They play a base 4-2 nickel.

I think they are going to see if they can generate sufficient pass rush from their DL alone. Our OL is bad and Nkemdiche is a beast.

If, somehow, we're able to slow him down, they're going to blitz our young QB and force him to throw up some easy interceptions or tuck it and try to run (where he is fumble-prone).

If Nkemdiche or the other DL are able to set up shop in our offensive backfield, it's going to be a looooooong night. If our OL is able to slow those guys down, we'll have a chance IF we can pick up the blitz and hit the hot reads.

In this regard, I think Kelvin Taylor and Jake McGee are the key. If KT is able to pick up a blitzing LB or Safety, and Jake McGee can use that big body to shield the defender and make the quick catch, we might be OK. Heck, I can see a Powell or a DRob burning them for a long one if Grier can avoid the blitz long enough to deliver the ball.

So like I said, they aren't going to rush 3 and drop back and let Grier pick them apart like he did Tennessee on 4th down over and over again last week. They are going to pressure him.

If we can't stop their front 4 or beat their blitz, then our offense will give up turnovers, and Ole Miss used 5 turnovers to beat Bama last week.

This is the kind of game where I really wish we had a Brandon James or an Andre Debose on special teams where we could maybe get a special teams TD or at least start the offense in really good field position. It is going to be hard for our offense to score on Ole Miss' defense. Really hard. We might need a defensive score if we're going to pull this one out.

This isn’t your dad’s Ole Miss. Laremy Tunsil, Robert Nkemdiche, and Laquon Treadwell could all go in the top ten of the NFL draft (yes, I know Tunsil likely isn’t playing). The point is they have more talent than we do right now. They have been in the same system for a couple of years. They are a cohesive unit. On paper, they SHOULD beat us. Well, on paper, we SHOULD have beaten them in 2008. We had lots more talent than they did, and somehow they came into the Swamp and came out ahead. That’s why you play the game. Let's hope the ball bounces our way tomorrow night.


Alex.

 

[AlexDaGator]

Ole Miss Offense versus Florida Defense

This is a really interesting matchup. Without Laremy Tunsil (and some injuries in the middle of that line), our DL matches up pretty well with their OL. However, this is still better than any OL we have played this year. Our DL will have to raise their level of play. Can Cox and McCallister get edge pressure in the passing game without overrunning their running game? Can Bullard and Brantely clog the middle against the run and collapse the pocket against the pass? I think the key matchup here is Bullard, and I like it for Florida. I think he can disrupt the middle of their line, close down inside running lanes, and no QB likes pressure in their face.

Of course the marquee matchup is Ole Miss’ talented WR corps against our vaunted secondary. I know we all want to talk about VHIII on an island against Laquon Treadwell but I don’t think that’s going to happen. VHIII gives up a lot of height to Treadwell. Normally, his leaping ability would compensate for this disadvantage but Vernon’s clearly nursing a bad back. He doesn’t have his normal hops. Tabor and Wilson are talented corners in their own right (and taller than VHIII, and healthier) but the only guys who can shut down Treadwell one-on-one are collecting fat paychecks and playing on Sunday.

But it’s not JUST Treadwell. They have a bevy of tall, fast sure-handed receivers (like Missouri had a couple years ago, but better).

This matchup will be decided by two things—our safeties and our pass rush. Can our safeties play well in pass defense, not blow their assignments, and play with ball awareness. Can our pass rush force some hurried passes that either fall incomplete or get picked off? Like I said in the analysis of the other side of the ball, it’s going to be hard for our Offense to score on them. A pick 6 would go a long way in helping us to stay in this game.

Another key for our defense will be the home field advantage—if we can keep it going. The defense draws energy from the crowd. As long as the game stays close and the crowd is in it, that will help our defense. If Ole Miss gets up a couple of scores and the crowd starts quieting down, or heading towards the exits, well, the defense sags. I want to see the Swamp in full throated glory tomorrow night, hearkening back to what it once was and can be again.

Alex.

 

[GatorBart]

I think this is going to be a low scoring defensive affair and could easily be decided by a defensive score (or huge turnover deep in enemy territory).
But carry on Alex, you're doing a great job!

 

[Jand3k]

Great posts and analysis Alex!

Can't disagree w/a word posted.

 

[Go Gata]

Given that our offense has gotten into the habit of scoring just enough points to win, I think the Ole Miss Offense vs the Gator Defense is the critical match-up. I agree with the assessment that this match-up will come down to our pass rush and secondary. If the D can just keep the score within reason, who knows what will happen.

Chomp Chomp

 

[Gator Fever]

If that Ole Miss QB plays anything like he did against Vandy we should have at least 2 interceptions. Not sure if that is normal for him but he was very careless with the football in that game.

 

[AlexDaGator]

If that Ole Miss QB plays anything like he did against Vandy we should have at least 2 interceptions. Not sure if that is normal for him but he was very careless with the football in that game.

That's my hope as well. This is the worst 'Bama secondary in recent memory. They remind me of us in 2007. Not only is our secondary better than 'Bama's, Ole Miss got every lucky bounce in that game. Their WRs are fantastic, but I'm not sold on the QB just yet. Maybe with the crowd noise ringing in his ears and Bullard in is face...



Alex.

 

[Gatorbait25]

Ole Miss Defense versus Florida Offense

It's an understatement to say we were damn good on 4th down last week. We were at our best.

It's safe to say Ole Miss defensive coaches aren't stupid. Pretty sure they watched that film and they'll never rush just three with a spy on Grier the whole game.

So what will they do?

Theirs is a very talented defense. This matchup is heavy in Ole MIss' favor and the primary reason why they are 7 point favorites against us in Gainesville.

They play a base 4-2 nickel.

I think they are going to see if they can generate sufficient pass rush from their DL alone. Our OL is bad and Nkemdiche is a beast.

If, somehow, we're able to slow him down, they're going to blitz our young QB and force him to throw up some easy interceptions or tuck it and try to run (where he is fumble-prone).

If Nkemdiche or the other DL are able to set up shop in our offensive backfield, it's going to be a looooooong night. If our OL is able to slow those guys down, we'll have a chance IF we can pick up the blitz and hit the hot reads.

In this regard, I think Kelvin Taylor and Jake McGee are the key. If KT is able to pick up a blitzing LB or Safety, and Jake McGee can use that big body to shield the defender and make the quick catch, we might be OK. Heck, I can see a Powell or a DRob burning them for a long one if Grier can avoid the blitz long enough to deliver the ball.

So like I said, they aren't going to rush 3 and drop back and let Grier pick them apart like he did Tennessee on 4th down over and over again last week. They are going to pressure him.

If we can't stop their front 4 or beat their blitz, then our offense will give up turnovers, and Ole Miss used 5 turnovers to beat Bama last week.

This is the kind of game where I really wish we had a Brandon James or an Andre Debose on special teams where we could maybe get a special teams TD or at least start the offense in really good field position. It is going to be hard for our offense to score on Ole Miss' defense. Really hard. We might need a defensive score if we're going to pull this one out.

This isn’t your dad’s Ole Miss. Laremy Tunsil, Robert Nkemdiche, and Laquon Treadwell could all go in the top ten of the NFL draft (yes, I know Tunsil likely isn’t playing). The point is they have more talent than we do right now. They have been in the same system for a couple of years. They are a cohesive unit. On paper, they SHOULD beat us. Well, on paper, we SHOULD have beaten them in 2008. We had lots more talent than they did, and somehow they came into the Swamp and came out ahead. That’s why you play the game. Let's hope the ball bounces our way tomorrow night.


Alex.

Good breakdown Alex. Especially agree on the part in bold. Our redzone offense definitely improved a week ago. Hopefully it continues this week.
Defensively I think they're similar to us. We also play 5 defensive backs as a base D. They have a slight edge I think with their two very good safeties and the beast at tackle. Whereas I think
our corners have more size and are better in man coverage. Also I like our pass rushers more than theirs. That said they aren't facing off against each other, so it's a moot point.
The game will probably come down to 4 or 5 plays. When we have the ball I expect the ground game to be more horizontal or off tackle than the A gap stuff that hasn't worked out for fairly
obvious reasons. Basically run away from Nkemdiche. Try to tire him out, so their pass rush doesn't kill us in the 3rd and 4th.

When they have the ball I suspect they will take a deep shot or two early. Freeze isn't dumb. He knows 20 probably get him a win. So he isn't going to take many chances unless we prove
early on we can drive the ball the length of the field against his defense. I don't think their gameplan is to come into the swamp and air it out 45 times against us. He probably wants a 55/45 pass run.
Tackling was pretty dreadful last week. Very discouraged by the play of Poole and Neal as well. On the UT last score Neal ran himself out of the play, and Hurd walked in on the cutback.As others have said it will probably be a relatively low scoring affair, so our special times have to shine in this one.

 

[Gatorbait25]

Ole Miss Offense versus Florida Defense

This is a really interesting matchup. Without Laremy Tunsil (and some injuries in the middle of that line), our DL matches up pretty well with their OL. However, this is still better than any OL we have played this year. Our DL will have to raise their level of play. Can Cox and McCallister get edge pressure in the passing game without overrunning their running game? Can Bullard and Brantely clog the middle against the run and collapse the pocket against the pass? I think the key matchup here is Bullard, and I like it for Florida. I think he can disrupt the middle of their line, close down inside running lanes, and no QB likes pressure in their face.

Of course the marquee matchup is Ole Miss’ talented WR corps against our vaunted secondary. I know we all want to talk about VHIII on an island against Laquon Treadwell but I don’t think that’s going to happen. VHIII gives up a lot of height to Treadwell. Normally, his leaping ability would compensate for this disadvantage but Vernon’s clearly nursing a bad back. He doesn’t have his normal hops. Tabor and Wilson are talented corners in their own right (and taller than VHIII, and healthier) but the only guys who can shut down Treadwell one-on-one are collecting fat paychecks and playing on Sunday.

But it’s not JUST Treadwell. They have a bevy of tall, fast sure-handed receivers (like Missouri had a couple years ago, but better).

This matchup will be decided by two things—our safeties and our pass rush. Can our safeties play well in pass defense, not blow their assignments, and play with ball awareness. Can our pass rush force some hurried passes that either fall incomplete or get picked off? Like I said in the analysis of the other side of the ball, it’s going to be hard for our Offense to score on them. A pick 6 would go a long way in helping us to stay in this game.

Another key for our defense will be the home field advantage—if we can keep it going. The defense draws energy from the crowd. As long as the game stays close and the crowd is in it, that will help our defense. If Ole Miss gets up a couple of scores and the crowd starts quieting down, or heading towards the exits, well, the defense sags. I want to see the Swamp in full throated glory tomorrow night, hearkening back to what it once was and can be again.

Alex.

A- Agree
B- Not so sure I agree. Without Tunsil their OL isn't much different than ours.
C- I believe so. Besides Mccalister isn't great against the run anyway. Which is why Cece is getting more snaps in my opinion. He's also damn good for a frosh.
D-Agreed. He's been unblockable at times.
E- I do. I also think they will connect on a few big ones. Just gotta keep them out of the endzone.
F- They sure do. Arguably the most talented group of receivers in CFB.
G- Bad news on the safeties. Neal is out of position often, but Maye seems to play better each week. Washington and Harris are both below average at this point.
H- The pass rush should generate a turnover or two. We just have to take advantage and not settle for 3.
I- I'll be there buddy, and looking forward to it.

 

[-THE DUDE-]

UF- Try to score more points that Ole Miss
Ole Miss- Try to score more points that UF

 

[AlexDaGator]

A- Agree
B- Not so sure I agree. Without Tunsil their OL isn't much different than ours.
C- I believe so. Besides Mccalister isn't great against the run anyway. Which is why Cece is getting more snaps in my opinion. He's also damn good for a frosh.
D-Agreed. He's been unblockable at times.
E- I do. I also think they will connect on a few big ones. Just gotta keep them out of the endzone.
F- They sure do. Arguably the most talented group of receivers in CFB.
G- Bad news on the safeties. Neal is out of position often, but Maye seems to play better each week. Washington and Harris are both below average at this point.
H- The pass rush should generate a turnover or two. We just have to take advantage and not settle for 3.
I- I'll be there buddy, and looking forward to it.

I'll be on the 50, right behind the Gator bench, about 3 rows up. I'll be the one screaming right into Chad Kelly's earhole from the instant they break the huddle until the ball is snapped. Maybe even run some smack about him getting kicked out of Climpson and his Uncle going o-fer in Super Bowls. I'm going to be close enough for him to hear me, why not take advantage?

Alex.

 

[WobbleGator]

UF- Try to score more points that Ole Miss
Ole Miss- Try to score more points that UF

 

[NCOGator]

Here is my two cents for what it is worth.

D-Line vs OL
If we can be a little bit better than them we win by a little bit.
Special Teams
I think that Old Miss has the advantage here. I think their return men are more experienced and I am not too sure about our kicker (since he has only kicked extra points in a game). If it comes down to Special Teams, the Gators will lose.

Turnovers
Like most games this almost always decides who wins. If we can get some pressure with our DL we should win this one. What gets me nervous is WilleyG tucking the ball right before he runs. He lost the ball a couple of times doing that, and I think he throws an INT as well. I just hope only one. Old Miss is very good at getting turnover, but I think that we will expose Kelly and win the turnover battle 3-1.

Our DBs vs their WRs
I think we can win this part of the game. I am with the those that think that VHIII will not be in man to man all day, and that should be great for us by allowing us to confuse a young QB. This should confuse Kelley into making mistakes like he did against Vandy.

Coaching
I think that this a push. If there is an advantage is has to go to Old Miss only because of their season last year (yes I know the end of the season didn't go well for them).

Home Field Advantage
I hope the damn Students will actually stay for the whole game tomorrow night. I think we will need them as this should be another great game.

Match-up
As we always hear on this board it is all about match-up, and I think the match-up is in our favor. We have shown that we can stop the run and we have shown that we can stop the pass. Now it is time to do both at the same time in the same game.

Final Prediction
I don't think this game will be decided until late in the 4th. It will be a hard fought game and the winner will know that they were in a fight. That is why I am predicting win number 5 in a row for Big Mac and the Gators. 28-24

GO GATORS!

 

[Gatorbait25]

I'll be on the 50, right behind the Gator bench, about 3 rows up. I'll be the one screaming right into Chad Kelly's earhole from the instant they break the huddle until the ball is snapped. Maybe even run some smack about him getting kicked out of Climpson and his Uncle going o-fer in Super Bowls. I'm going to be close enough for him to hear me, why not take advantage?

Alex.

I'll be in section F with a couple buddies. One of which is an Ole Miss guy.

 

[lagator]

Good breakdown Alex. Especially agree on the part in bold. Our redzone offense definitely improved a week ago. Hopefully it continues this week.
Defensively I think they're similar to us. We also play 5 defensive backs as a base D. They have a slight edge I think with their two very good safeties and the beast at tackle. Whereas I think
our corners have more size and are better in man coverage. Also I like our pass rushers more than theirs. That said they aren't facing off against each other, so it's a moot point.
The game will probably come down to 4 or 5 plays. When we have the ball I expect the ground game to be more horizontal or off tackle than the A gap stuff that hasn't worked out for fairly
obvious reasons. Basically run away from Nkemdiche. Try to tire him out, so their pass rush doesn't kill us in the 3rd and 4th.

When they have the ball I suspect they will take a deep shot or two early. Freeze isn't dumb. He knows 20 probably get him a win. So he isn't going to take many chances unless we prove
early on we can drive the ball the length of the field against his defense. I don't think their gameplan is to come into the swamp and air it out 45 times against us. He probably wants a 55/45 pass run.
Tackling was pretty dreadful last week. Very discouraged by the play of Poole and Neal as well. On the UT last score Neal ran himself out of the play, and Hurd walked in on the cutback.As others have said it will probably be a relatively low scoring affair, so our special times have to shine in this one.

Don't agree with that. He'll need closer to 35 to have a chance in this one, which he's not going to get. What's my analysis? Gators Win!

 

[-THE DUDE-]

Im a football savant

 

[Gatorious]

I am thinking we will need min. 2 defensive scores, and be in the +'s vs. TOs to hang in this game.
Lucky for us, this is not wholly unreasonable for us to accomplish.

 

[gatormandan]

Im really hoping they come in over confident and we spank that booty.

 

[Okeechobee Joe]

One weakness Ole Miss has had has been in the red zone. They have had difficulty punching it in when down close to the goal line. They have lined up in the wildcat fy ormation and when they have brought in Jeremy Liggins, the big 300 pounder to try to run it in, they have been stopped. Just too slow getting back to the line of scrimmage and not enough push from the offensive line.

In the two wins over the two cupcakes, UT-Martin and Fresno State, and the win over Alabama, Ole Miss has been a big play offense. What has meant is that their defense has been on the field a lot and in the Alabama game their defense was "gassed" in the second half. They might try to rotate more players in and out on defense.

They have had a weak running game ever since Freeze has been the head coach. Jaylen Walton, their go to back, is very quick and can break the long one, but he is a "smurf" and can get snuffed out when trying to go between the tackles. Our defensive line has got to not over pursue or he can run by you. So can Kelly The Ole Miss offensive line has been a weak point and doesn't help them that Laremy Tunsil who is from just up the road in Lake City has been benched due to concerns about an NCAA investigation.

Chad Kelly has a very quick release and is a pretty good runner -- better than what a lot of people think. But if he is pressurized he can crack. Witness his heave pass when he was being tackled against Alabama which could have easily been intercepted and return for a pick 6. Instead Treadwell going up the Alabama receiver tipped the ball and Adeboyjo caught in on the run, and lucky Ole Miss turned it into a 66 yard touchdown highlight reel play. Kelly had a lot of balls batted down by Alabama and Vanderbilt.

Watch the "pop pass" where Kelly will take off running to the outside, stop just before the line of scrimmage, and when the defender commits to stop the run, Kelly will throw a soft pass into a waiting wide open receiver. He burned Alabama on this play. Also our defense needs to watch for the double pass -- the pass to a running back behind the line of scrimmage who will throw down field to another receiver. Treadwell might still be a little tentative from his broken fibula fracture and dislocated ankle injury he suffered in the Auburn game last year. Vernon Hargreaves versus Laquon Treadwell -- it just doesn't get any better than that.

Ole Miss is really good at open field tackling. You won't see a lot of arm tackling or ball stripping. They get their feet set, tackle head on, and wrap up. Ole Miss has been good at putting offenses in third and long. This will not be good for Grier if he is in an obvious passing situation and having to face a strong pass rush. It also means Kelvin Taylor is going to have to step up and get some good solid gains on first and second downs.

i haven't seen it mentioned much that we have Geoff Collins who was the defensive coordinator a Mississippi State. He should know something about Freeze's offense and its tendencies. This can't hurt having Collins on our sideline.

 

[AlexDaGator]

Good stuff Joe!


Alex.