Team Talent Composite (i.e. recruiting rankings)

[BMF]

This is interesting. For those who think our recruiting ranking isn't a big deal or that "we had a top 10 class" (when 5 of our rivals had higher ranked classes)....well, here you go: Under McElwain UF is 16-1 vs. teams w/ lower team composite rankings.....and 3-7 vs. teams w/ higher composite rankings (beating UGA twice and LSU once):

A look at 247Sports Team Talent Composite
The wins and losses during the season appear to be affected by recruiting rankings out of high school.

http://florida.247sports.com/Article/A-look-at-247Sports-Team-Talent-Composite-53186249


The 247Sports Team Talent Composite is an attempt to quantify the talented on the rosters of college football teams across the country. To accomplish that, 247Sports uses a proprietary algorithm that pulls the 247Sports Composite prospect rankings for each of the top 85 players on a given team's active roster.

The 247Sports Team Talent Composite has only been around for the 2015 and 2016 seasons. An updated 2017 ranking will not be released until right before the season, as rosters firm up.

{A detailed description of the 247Sports Team Talent Composite can be found HERE}

Florida has a stellar 16-1 record against teams ranked lower on the 247Sports Team Talent Composite the past two seasons. However, when playing programs ranked higher, the Gators’ record dips to 3-7. Two wins over Georgia and 2016’s victory over LSU being the only victories against what are perceived to be more talented rosters.

Michigan, who is Florida’s opponent week one, is 0-3 against teams ranked higher on the team talent composite. That record jumps to 20-3 versus teams ranked lower the past two seasons.

The next big game on Florida’s schedule is Tennessee at home week three. The Vols are 16-4 when playing a roster with a lower recruiting ranking, and 2-4 when playing one that is higher ranked. Tennessee (No. 15) was actually ranked higher than Florida (No. 16) in 2016 for their win against the Gators.

Cross-division rival LSU has only played a team with a better roster than them twice the past two seasons in division foe Alabama and are 0-2 in those match-ups. A record of 17-5 for the Tigers the past two season against lesser rated rosters.

As mentioned, two of Florida’s wins against teams with a higher rated team talent composite have been against Georgia. The Bulldogs are 18-7 against teams ranked lower, while losing their only game against a team ranked higher the past two seasons.

Florida State and Alabama have not played a roster ranked higher on the 247Sports Team Talent Composite the past two seasons. The Seminoles are 20-6 against those with lesser rosters, while the Crimson Tide have gone 28-2.

It’s clear landing high rated recruits increases the odds of winning, while facing a team with players that have a higher star rating make wins tough to come by.

 

[BMF]

Michigan vs. Lower Ranked Roster vs. Higher Ranked Roster
2015: #9 10-2 0-1
2016: #8 10-1 0-2
-------------- ------------------------------ --------------------------
Tennessee
2015: #14 8-2 1-2
2016: #15 8-2 1-2
-------------- ------------------------------ --------------------------
LSU
2015: #5 9-2 0-1
2016: #3 8-3 0-1
-------------- ------------------------------ ---------------------------
Georgia
2015: #6 10-2 0-1
2016: #6 8-5 0-0
--------------- ------------------------------ ----------------------------
Florida State
2015: #4 10-3 0-0
2016: #5 10-3 0-0
--------------- ------------------------------- -----------------------------
Alabama
2015: #1 14-1 0-0
2016: #1 14-1 0-0
--------------- ------------------------------ -----------------------------
Florida
2015: #12 9-0 1-4
2016: #16 7-1 2-3

 

[Durty South Swamp]

Evaluating the numbers should tell us what our record is going to be +/- no more than maybe 2 games based on how close our results have historically aligned with the numerical expectations provided from the analysis. It would also tell us which specific games we're more likely to lose.

Here's the actual link to the rankings. http://247sports.com/Season/2016-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite

There are no 2017 numbers but based on 2016 numbers it doesn't look good at all. There are 6 teams above us on the list who are on our schedule this fall. LSU, FSU, UGA, Mich, aTm, and UT. Out of those 6 the only ones we are even close to are aTm and UT, the rest except for Mich are double digits above us. LSU - 3, FSU - 4, UGA - 6, Mich - 8, aTm - 13, UT - 14. Gators are 16.

If Florida's track record of finishing close to numerical expectations holds true this season thats 6 losses. If we buck the trend by winning say 2 games against better opponents which is as wide a gap as the numbers indicate we've had, that's still 4 losses to most likely lsu, fsu, uga, and mich.

Also note that bama is on that list but not counted as one of the 6 because they aren't on our schedule (technically) and if we track close to the numerical expectation, we wouldn't play them anyway. Looks like just getting to Atlanta this year would require a major amount of luck and magic. Could it happen? Sure, but I just have a hard time believing butters is the guy who's going to pull the rabbit out of a hat.

 

[URGatorBait]

If we buck the trend by winning say 2 games against better opponents which is as wide a gap as the numbers indicate we've had, that's still 4 losses

Actually, that would be the trend, since the previous seasons were 3-7 (30%) against higher ranked opponents. So 8-4 would be the expected. Bucking the trend would be 9-3 or better.

Interestingly, the 4 teams you listed of FSU, Mich, LSU and UGA are the teams I either think we lose to or I am on the fence about. I think FSU and Mich are losses, with LSU and UGA being potential toss ups to a loss, will depend on health of the team and QB play, IMO.

Personally, I will not be happy with another 8-4 regular season.

 

[Durty South Swamp]

Actually, that would be the trend, since the previous seasons were 3-7 (30%) against higher ranked opponents. So 8-4 would be the expected. Bucking the trend would be 9-3 or better.

Interestingly, the 4 teams you listed of FSU, Mich, LSU and UGA are the teams I either think we lose to or I am on the fence about. I think FSU and Mich are losses, with LSU and UGA being potential toss ups to a loss, will depend on health of the team and QB play, IMO.

Personally, I will not be happy with another 8-4 regular season.

The 3-7 mark was measured over 2 seasons so thats 1.5 wins per year over betters. But then we've got 1 loss to lessers in that 2 year span for 0.5 per year as well. I normalized it to a 1 win bump over the baseline and just called it a +/- 2 and let it be. Its all guesswork so who knows.

Regardless of the numbers, I tend to agree with your results above. I dont get the we are gonna beat mich thing on the board. I just dont see it happening. I could see UGA because regardless of the talent they just mentally have a hard time with us, and LSU is at home and who knows what they will do with moron now fully in charge. Outside of LSU and UGA though, I think its likely the others are losses, and I like you, think thats unacceptable.

Edit - we didnt even mention UT and aTm either and they are above us in the scoring. I think we handle UT because they have a new qb and rb's and are at our house but I could easily see getting boat raced by aTm if they have no more than decent qb play. They are going to score points, even against stout defenses. If we cant score a good amount against that team we are going to get drilled at home.

 

[T REX]

Stars are overrated

 

[URGatorBait]

The 3-7 mark was measured over 2 seasons so thats 1.5 wins per year over betters.

Right, but that also means it's 3.5 losses, .5 game equals toss up which means we could win that game

3-7 is three wins out of 10, or 30%, against teams ranked higher. You pointed out there are 6 teams ranked higher this season. The trend says we'll win 30% against those 6 teams. 30% is actually 1.8 games, rounded up to 2 because there is a definite winner and loser in the game of football, so 1.8 would dictate 2 wins...i.e. 8-4 record. ;)

Regardless of the numbers, I tend to agree with your results above. I dont get the we are gonna beat mich thing on the board. I just dont see it happening. I could see UGA because regardless of the talent they just mentally have a hard time with us, and LSU is at home and who knows what they will do with moron now fully in charge. Outside of LSU and UGA though, I think its likely the others are losses, and I like you, think thats unacceptable.

I'm not going to say it's impossible to beat mich...but I find it very unlikely as we talk right now. I suppose we'll wait and see what fall practice brings us heading into that game. It's always possible to sneak in a win that maybe we should otherwise get in these big first games of the season.

I just don't see a scenario this year that we beat FSU. I hate saying it, but it is what it is.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

The problem is that we should rank much higher when the 2017 numbers are released.
In 2016 they have us at 3-21-50 (247 stars)
2017 should look something like 4-41-33 (Rivals but 247 should be close if someone wants to look it up, pls)

We go from having less blue chippers than ham-n-eggers to more.

Why would they not have the 2017 numbers out yet? It's pretty much known.

 

[GatorBart]

Stars are overrated

I laughed.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

In 2016 they have us at 3-21-50 (247 stars)
2017 should look something like 4-41-33 .

I'm on the phone and can't really look it up at the moment but 20 fours stars and an additional five star from this last class is wrong, isnt it? Im pretty sure of that.

 

[GatorJB]

This is why the offense scoring lots of points is so important this year. If the offense improves, the recruiting should too. If it's just average or worse, we're in trouble until we have a new coach.

 

[Marianna-FL_Gator]

Recruiting services don't know what they are doing...the coaching evals are more important! #StarsDon'tMatter

 

[rogdochar]

Mac most obviously does not deserve to stay UF's coach one season beyond 2017 if he does not produce a high-powered offense with much jubilation TV-displayed on our sidelines -- displayed for recruits to see and enjoy.
Mac should already have an OC-replacement lined up for 2018 and fire Nutsmired. Irresistable recruiters should replace our utter failures.

However, who can we get who can match the abilities of top 5 coaches settled elsewhere? ?
Maybe we can follow on You Tube someone like PJ Fleck of Minnesota in his post-game explains -- 'cause he's got no OL, no DL, no QB, no WRs!! And it's his first year. Will he win as many as 8 games?

None of us believe strongly that our Offensive production can jump from 106 to 70 in one year under Nuss .... but what if Nuss were fired at the end of last season and Kerwin Bell replaced him. I think a jump better in offense would be believable -- what with Bell coaching QBs and Spurrier & Bell collaborating more easily. We need another Gator Great invested like Steve was. Us Nuss-stuck it's a no risk move.

 

[Gator Fever]

Michigan may be real high on that list for this season but they will really only be drawing many of their starters from that real good 2016 class (as far as their real good recruiting classes) and may only have one true freshman starting this season so I think it could be misleading using the most recent class of recruits for the current season. Michigan had an even worse ranked class than us in 2015 I think.

 

[GatorInKnox]

I honestly have very few problems with Mac the coach (other than his refusal to move on from Nuss). He nearly always wins games he's supposed to win and will every now and then win a game he's supposed to lose (UGA and LSU). The problem is, the number of games we're supposed to win is going down every year because Mac the recruiter sucks balls.

 

[GatorStud]

Identity... who are the Gators? the this is what they're bringing to the house, and it can be formidable. Honestly, the primary coaches nurture and develop that. This idea of throw enough talent together, and they'll lead us thru a Championship Campaign of politics and calls isn't enough. In that, Nuss and Nord are our weak link... rate limiting step if you will. They're a real damper thus far on potentiating talent and keeping their head in the game. I'll lose my mind if this segment of our history is another Doug Dickey... you finally have some horses but you can't corral them. We'll see if these coaches can grow into Champions this year.

 

[ATXGator]

The good thing is now I don't have to watch the games

 

[GatorSkin]

The problem is that we should rank much higher when the 2017 numbers are released.
In 2016 they have us at 3-21-50 (247 stars)
2017 should look something like 4-41-33 (Rivals but 247 should be close if someone wants to look it up, pls)

We go from having less blue chippers than ham-n-eggers to more.

Why would they not have the 2017 numbers out yet? It's pretty much known.

I would think they probably don't use the most recent class because the majority of true freshman won't play.

 

[Gator Fever]

I would think they probably don't use the most recent class because the majority of true freshman won't play.

I think they do actually looking at the number of players listed on the 2016 list.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

The problem is, the number of games we're supposed to win is going down every year because Mac the recruiter sucks balls.

Lol. And you have no problem with that?