Truth Takes: Utah Preview

GatorTruth133

Alethea
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I've written a lot recently and I'm sorry, what would've been a weekly deal got shoved into a few weeks so I've put a lot on here every few days. There have been some fun conversations though. I try not to blast the podcast here, but if you haven't definitely check out my interview with Utah super fan UteFanIvan on Youtube as it is interesting to hear his impressions of the Swamp and Gator fans. It is also cool to hear about some of the Utes' gameday and tradition. I do want to start having some conversations like that with Gator fans. Trying to find the things we all have in common whether it was watching games with friends or parents or while a student or maybe you didn't attend UF at all. Those fun little things that make college football special.

I definitely want to say hi to all Chatter members making the journey to SLC. Always nice to meet other Gators like I've met a number before and I hope to meet guys like Slev in SLC.

Football season is back. The Gators play in 2 days and I can't wait.
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Last year the Gators beat the Utes 29-26 in Gainesville, FL. The Gators won with a good running game and probably the most complete game by Anthony Richardson who put up 274 total yards including a 45-yard scramble for a TD after evading pressure and a bigtime 4th down conversion after evading pressure. Florida’s defense did a decent job bending, but not breaking with two goalline stands in the game, including the game sealing INT by Amari Burney. There was also a stop on a poorly executed 2-point conversion attempt by the Utes.

Last year I was confident we could beat the Utes due to their massive turnover from 2021 and a bunch of new starters having their first game together in the hostile atmosphere of the Swamp. This year, it is the Gators who have bunch of new starters having their first game together in a hostile atmosphere in Rice-Eccles Stadium. I know the Gators have faced bigger and crazier stadiums in the past. However, there are plenty of players on this year’s squad, including some starters who have not experienced that. Utah has not lost at home since 2018. I do think the roughly 50k Utah fans will be wild for this game (I’m accounting for at least 5,000 UF fans). At the very best for UF, this is a good experience to have before going to Lexington and Columbia.

Florida’s offense will continue to be a run first affair. I chronicled the position groups I think will be better or worse previously. Mertz could be solid with two main things; one being that we see a quick passing game that we didn’t see in any game last year or in the spring game and two the OL gives him time. The first one ties into the second one by punishing the blitz and keeps some defenders further from the line of scrimmage and doing so will open up space for the running game.

There are still question marks about who will start at center on the OL. This is an offensive line who have not all practiced together too much as it seems that since the Spring there was always at least one guy injured. A good counterpoint to that is it does give plenty of young guys valuable reps in practice with the first team. However, it will be interesting to see how this OL does working together and communicating in their first game together in a hostile environment.

If Florida can get the running game going, it would go a long way towards a victory. If they cannot, it could end up being a long night in Salt Lake City. Utah returns a ton of defensive production and has a former starting LB from Stanford starting alongside two Ute LB’s that have almost 40 starts between them. Utah does their DL from left to right while UF will switch it around. I say that to say that a good match up to watch will be how Barber handles the very experienced Fillinger as our best OL takes on their best DL.

The best offensive match up that UF has against Utah’s defense is at the slot position where Tao Johnson is starting for the Utes according to the depth chart released last week. He played four games for the Utes last year at wide receiver. Whether it is Jackson, Pearsall, Wilson, or Mizell, there is a decent chance that speed can take advantage of a redshirt freshman in his first defensive performance. Especially, if we see some quick routes to our quick guys.

Obviously, the biggest question coming into the game is the status of Cam Rising, followed by the status of Brant Kuithe. If they do not play, the Gators have a lot better chance in SLC. Either way, just like the Gators, I expect to see the Utes try to establish the run first with Ja'Quinden Jackson and Micah Bernard. Jackson started the 2022 season as a back up QB but made the move to RB and over the final 5 games of the season averaged at least 6.2 yards per carry each game. Bernard had some limited success last year against the Gators, but most of the damage on the ground was done by Rising and Tayvion Thomas, who is no longer with the Utes.

No, I don't think if Rising plays he will be 100%, but I don't think this will be him like some Gators make it sound.

Leftwich.gif

If the young Gators DL and LB corps can slow the Utah running game, it will be a major step for the Gators towards victory. Although the Utes have some solid wide receivers, I do not believe they have any spectacular receivers. If the Gators play press man, which we’ve heard they will, that creates tighter windows and demands more time for the QB to find an open guy. More time means it is more likely that the Gators pass rushers get home. If the Gators can slow the run, then the Gators can be more aggressive in the pass rush with guys like Marshall, Kimber, Hill, Moore, and Perkins at the CB/Star positions, I think it will give the Gators pass rushers ample time to get some sacks.

The best defensive match up the Gators have is against the left tackle, Spencer Fano. Fano is a true freshman who is being asked to go up against the likes of Princely, Sapp, and Pyburn. That is a tough draw for a young guy. I noted earlier the Utes seem to be static with their DL (according to their depth chart) in keeping most guys left or right. Florida adjusts its DL (including the Jack/OLB) based on opponent’s formation. That alone could help the Gators in what I believe is this mismatch because facing different guys as the front rotates and adjusts gives him less time to figure out the style of any one player to better counter it.

I believe the Utes are a tough team and a tough draw for a Gators team replacing so much production. Granted, some is an upgrade in replacement. I think it being an away night game in a hostile environment on a Thursday night doesn’t help. However, I think a more aggressive defensive style could be the difference in the game for the Gators. I expect this to be a game for four quarters like last year. I think the Gators can pull this out.

Gators 21 Utes 20.
:chomp:
 

Silverback Gator

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Beautiful write up. The unknown, TOs and point from TOs. Hope we settle in and show some confidence. I would gladly take a one point win.
 

Theologator

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Don’t apologize for your write-ups. Always well considered. I found your YouTube channel and will listen tomorrow.

I think we’ve got a great chance to win. I like your prediction but think we win by a bit more. That OL doesn’t need to hold run blocks long.
 

deuce

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Rising(career) - 5500 yds. passing - 64% - 46 TD's - 14 Int. -- 12 Rushing TD

Mertz(career) - 5400 yds. passing - 60% - 38 TD's - 26 Int. - 8 Rushing TD


Utah has 18 OL on roster - 3- 3 Stars and 1 - 4 Star, they average 6'4" and 311 pounds. Majority are RSF and Freshmen, most are Polynesian.
Utah has 9 TE on roster - 1 -3 Star and 1 - 4 star, they average 6'3.5" and 237 pounds.

UF has 15 DL on roster - they average 6'3.5" and 335 pounds
UF has 9 DE on roster - they average 6'4" and 257 pounds.
UF has 8 LB on roster - they average 6'2" and 234 pounds.

Not much research here, just picked up rosters off Google. Don't even know who will start but it's obvious that our D-Front and backers have the size to disrupt Utah's running game. Don't know if the talent matches the size mis-match but hopeful we can generate a pass rush without leaving the DB's and S on a island or blitzing on every pass down.

Numbers don't mean much but at least we will look like a SEC defense to start the game.

** There is no doubt that Rising is the better QB (when healthy) but Mertz isn't chopped liver..... and he played better competition than Rising. B10/12/14/whatever is > than Pac12.

** If the numbers are wrong...... who cares :dunno:
 
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GatorTruth133

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** There is no doubt that Rising is the better QB (when healthy) but Mertz isn't chopped liver..... and he played better competition that Rising. B10/12/14/whatever is > than Pac12.
I'm not entirely certain on the comp level Mertz faced in the Big 10 West vs. the Pac 12. I know Iowa and Illinois had some good defenses, but were they racking up numbers against bad offenses like Iowa's is a question I have. I do believe that Mertz can possibly be good. However, we need to get him time and not give him as many third and long throws as both he and AR had last year. I know we've tried putting in more schematically and Billy said they realized they needed to so we will see. The Utah front 7 overall isn't a joke. We will need something to loosen it up. We did well last year, but last year we had 4 returning starters with a lot of experience (and an All-American addition), a QB attracting defensive attention in the run game, and an element of surprise in Utah not knowing for sure what type of scheme we would be running. This year some of those things are gone so I am interested in how we adapt to keep that strength there.
 

oxrageous

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We certainly know that the two players that Utah has to worry about are Johnson and Etienne. I can only assume they will be geared up to stop those guys. If Mertz can just consistently connect on some mid-range passes, we can kill them. He doesn't have to be Brett Favre. That is something that AR couldn't do.
 

GatorTruth133

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We certainly know that the two players that Utah has to worry about are Johnson and Etienne. I can only assume they will be geared up to stop those guys. If Mertz can just consistently connect on some mid-range passes, we can kill them. He doesn't have to be Brett Favre. That is something that AR couldn't do.
Funny enough he did hit some mid range crossing passes against Utah last year. Specifically, a play or two before the long TD run. It all comes back though to him having time. I've re-watched Utah twice in the last week or so, many times last year AR had guys in his face. I hope we do things to alleviate that for Mertz.
 

GatorJ

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I don’t see a lot of passing yards. I see a couple backbreaking plays by Pearsall and EWIII. And a heavy dose of TnT. (Trell and Trevor). 200+ yards rushing. And about 200 yards passing.
 

GatorTruth133

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I don’t see a lot of passing yards. I see a couple backbreaking plays buy Pearsall and EWIII. And a heavy dose of TnT. (Trell and Trevor). 200+ yards rushing. And about 200 yards passing.
That's where I kind of am if we can draw off their front 7 some. I think a decent number of passing yards will be those jet sweep "passes" they did a few of in the open practice. I expect most passing yards to be YAC myself. Again, I'd target their slot corner. for that.
 

GatorJ

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That's where I kind of am if we can draw off their front 7 some. I think a decent number of passing yards will be those jet sweep "passes" they did a few of in the open practice. I expect most passing yards to be YAC myself. Again, I'd target their slot corner. for that.
Shane said that there were quite a few instances of Pearsall and EWIII on the field at the same time in closed practices. He said to pay no attention to the depth chart.

He also said that Pearsall has been uncoverable in practice. But he doesn’t know if that’s because he’s been that great (even though he has become leaner and faster) or if it’s because our defensive backfield is not great.

He says all 3 freshmen receivers would be stars under Spurrier. Compares EWIII to Ike Hilliard.
 

SGG

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Shane said that there were quite a few instances of Pearsall and EWIII on the field at the same time in closed practices. He said to pay no attention to the depth chart.

He also said that Pearsall has been uncoverable in practice. But he doesn’t know if that’s because he’s been that great (even though he has become leaner and faster) or if it’s because our defensive backfield is not great.

He says all 3 freshmen receivers would be stars under Spurrier. Compares EWIII to Ike Hilliard.
Big shoes to fill
 

Silverback Gator

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Mertz(career) - 5400 yds. passing - 60% - 38 TD's - 26 Int. - 8 Rushing TD
Not a great stat but we presume staff is giving him easier reads.
I don’t see a lot of passing yards. I see a couple backbreaking plays by Pearsall and EWIII. And a heavy dose of TnT. (Trell and Trevor). 200+ yards rushing. And about 200 yards passing.
Makes sense. Utah could just stuff our offense, but I doubt it. By end of third quarter, could look like Utah couldn't handle the altitude. haha.
 

Double Gator Dad

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We certainly know that the two players that Utah has to worry about are Johnson and Etienne. I can only assume they will be geared up to stop those guys. If Mertz can just consistently connect on some mid-range passes, we can kill them. He doesn't have to be Brett Favre. That is something that AR couldn't do.

Agreed

I have almost forgotten what a quick slant completion looks like.
 

GatorTruth133

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Agreed

I have almost forgotten what a quick slant completion looks like.
I wonder if we only run quick slants on 3rd or 4th and 5 plus again this year (which is a very predictable situation to run a quick slant). I know we did one on 3rd and 5 against Utah, one against UK on 3rd or 4th and I think one late against LSU. I'll back off if someone can show me three quick slant route plays actually called not on those down last year. Give me the time left, quarter, and game and I'll check it out.
 

GatorTruth133

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Paul Chryst said recently he misused Mertz at Wisconsin....for 3 years.
Billy's quote, not Josh Pate's unpacking of the statement is "there are things that could have been done better", and then talks about some things around him [Mertz] could have been done better. Unless he made statements off of air, but Pate seemed to indicate it was what Billy said on air. I like Pate's unpacking, but I'm also looking at the words actually used. If you can find me the Napier tape of him saying that Chryst fell on his sword and said he misused Mertz and it was all Chryst's fault, please provide.
 

Silverback Gator

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I wonder if we only run quick slants on 3rd or 4th and 5 plus again this year (which is a very predictable situation to run a quick slant). I know we did one on 3rd and 5 against Utah, one against UK on 3rd or 4th and I think one late against LSU. I'll back off if someone can show me three quick slant route plays actually called not on those down last year. Give me the time left, quarter, and game and I'll check it out.
Aren't you calling into question Napier's competence? It will take a full season of success with that play to cleanse the memory of AR/Napier's 4th quarter slant vs LSU. It was so bad I actually felt sorry for AR. "Coach, what led you to believe he could make that pass?"
 

GatorTruth133

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Aren't you calling into question Napier's competence? It will take a full season of success with that play to cleanse the memory of AR/Napier's 4th quarter slant vs LSU. It was so bad I actually felt sorry for AR. "Coach, what led you to believe he could make that pass?"
AR wasn't great at the slant for sure, but when we truly only ran them in obvious situations, it didn't help. In the tight coverage, balls have to be rifled and many times adding velocity will impact accuracy. I think, or at least hope, Napier has done some passing game learning. I hope he gets his 2nd top 59 in the nation passing offense this season. Seeing improvement in not seeing the two men downfield with a third man standing to the side being called multiple times a game and the addition of a quick passing game that we didn't see last year or in the Spring would be a great start.
 

Silverback Gator

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AR wasn't great at the slant for sure, but when we truly only ran them in obvious situations, it didn't help. In the tight coverage, balls have to be rifled and many times adding velocity will impact accuracy. I think, or at least hope, Napier has done some passing game learning. I hope he gets his 2nd top 59 in the nation passing offense this season. Seeing improvement in not seeing the two men downfield with a third man standing to the side being called multiple times a game and the addition of a quick passing game that we didn't see last year or in the Spring would be a great start.
Okay, just for the sake of discussion, why would he ever imagined that was a scheme? If he has to learn to be an OC, he shouldn't be an OC. AR's attempt was miserable, I felt terrible for him. OTOH, Napier should have known that with the game on the line and AR's rocket arm, that was an unlikely completion. Maybe in practice he was better with that throw.
 

GatorTruth133

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Okay, just for the sake of discussion, why would he ever imagined that was a scheme? If he has to learn to be an OC, he shouldn't be an OC. AR's attempt was miserable, I felt terrible for him. OTOH, Napier should have known that with the game on the line and AR's rocket arm, that was an unlikely completion. Maybe in practice he was better with that throw.
Sake of discussion, if you are only running a route during certain situations, it probably isn't practiced as much. Again, AR wasn't great, but wasn't put in the best situation every time either. If I pull the vids on the actual quick slants, and not just some crossing route people call a slant (its amazing how much that happens) they aren't open and I think he panics trying to fit it in and worries more about getting it past the defender and ruins what accuracy there may be. Maybe he was better in practice, but if our DB's lined up like they did in games, that throw would be a lot more open because the DB's would be 8-10 yards off the LOS and that could contribute to being better in practice. I also think that Shorter was not an ideal guy (who I am pretty sure was the target in a few) to run a slant. Big body, yes, but using a speedy guy to get a little separation is my feelings on it. Which is why I am hoping the receiver upgrades make a difference this year.
 

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