And quite suddenly, nobody in the last 33 years has ever had it as good as Kentucky will have it. Should Cal’s rapidly improving team advance through the city known during March tournaments as “Catlanta” — the fan turnout will be an absolute avalanche of blue — the path to San Antonio will be historically smooth.
If Kentucky beats Kansas State — which actually dropped a spot in the Pomeroy Ratings, to 39th, after slogging past UMBC on Sunday — and plays Nevada, the combined seed total of UK’s four opponents will be 41. If Kentucky beats Kansas State and plays Loyola, that seed total would be 45.
Seven Final Four teams have had a total higher than 41 and seven have had a total higher than 45: Duke 1986 (43), UNLV 1990 (47), North Carolina 1991 (47), Michigan 1993 (44), Duke 1999 (43), Michigan State 2001 (48) and Kansas 2008 (46). But here’s the catch: All of those were No. 1 seeds. Through pre-tournament performance, they earned the right to start with a No. 16 seed and then either a No. 8 or No. 9. The breaks they received didn’t really start until the Sweet 16.
Kentucky is in line for three substantial breaks in terms of opponent: a 13 seed instead of a 4 in the second round; a 9 instead of a 1 in the third; and either a 7 or 11 instead of a 2 in the fourth. The differential between the Wildcats’ path and what would have been the hardest possible path is 22 or 26. For the seven fortunate teams listed above, the highest differential between its path and the hardest possible path was 18 (Michigan State 2001).
Only two teams have made the Final Four by playing four straight opponents from the bottom half of the 64-team field: North Carolina ’91 and Michigan State ’01. If UK beats K-State on Thursday and Loyola on Saturday, it will be the third.