- Oct 5, 2017
- 2,315
- 6,299
Gators football is back this week. After a lot of soul searching I think I have decided to be an optimist on the season despite how last season ended, all the talent we lost on the offensive side of the ball, and the retainment of Grantham. You have been warned.
Offense
The offense is moving on from being a pass happy, record setting offense to one of a run-first offense that is more of Dan Mullen's style. We all have heard and seen a lot of that sentiment. I believe in a way that it is a good thing. Don't get me wrong, I prefer a wide open passing attack as opposed to a run first offense. However, I recognize that Mullen recruits, develops, and his mindset is more comfortable with this style of play. If he is in his comfort zone, he should be better calling plays in theory. On that note, I do believe that Brian Johnson was a much bigger part of the offensive scheme last year than most are willing to admit. I do not think even with the same parts, the 2020 unit is as productive without Brian Johnson taking on the role he did as Offensive Coordinator.
The offensive line returns three starters and I'm not sure if that is a good or a bad thing. Since the style of offense is changing, it might be good that we have new blood starting as the line was not good at run blocking for the most part in 2020. I am curious to see how Gouraige does out at left tackle. He was decent in pass protection in 2020 at left guard, but according to this article by Will Miles, the inside left was the worst place to run last season. Ethan White was expected to start last year, but injuries kept him out most of the season and limited his playing time. That might have been a blessing in disguise as it allow for a position battle at center that probably would not have happened otherwise. Kingsley Eguakun apparently has been a pleasant surprise grabbing the brass ring to take the starting job at center. We have rarely seen someone unseat an anointed starter under Mullen so you know this is probably a good sign. The 6th year senior right side of Reese and Delance struggled in pass protection last year and I don't expect much growth in year 6 for them, but according to the same article tagged above runs to the right were much more effective and Delance might have been the best run blocker last year. I'm going to believe that the switch in focus and change in starters will make this line a good, but not great one.
The backfield as a whole has the capability to be dangerous on the ground. Like 2014 Georgia game dangerous on the ground. We've seen Emory Jones break some nice runs over the years as well as some from Davis (in 2017) and Pierce. The 5 star guys and Wright may have them beat in top end speed and shiftiness though. It will be interesting in seeing how the carries are split. Do you use a lot of Pierce and his experience early to beat up opposing defenses? Do you use the speedy guys to get the opposing defenses gassed and then pound them with Pierce. With rumors of two RB sets, do you triple option Pierce for an inside run and take Emory and another guy outside? Maybe I am getting ahead of myself, but the unknown makes me excited for what we will see.
Speaking of Emory, we've seen for years that he has a nice deep ball. Now, the question will be can he do well enough in the intermediate passing game to keep the defense honest and stop the opposing defense from putting 8 in the box. He looked pretty good against Auburn for that series back in 2019. Since then, he's been hit and miss in the passing game. A plus that we do have is that we now have a guy who when a play breaks down can pull the ball and take off running. A QB spy takes one more man out of the passing game. The reports say that he has improved his passing, how much he has will decide the offense's fate in 2021.
The question is "who will he throw it to?" after the departures of Pitts, Grimes, and Toney. I don't think there is a short list to replace their production. Gamble and Zipperer have shown ability to replace part of what Pitts brought in the passing game last year. For what it is worth, Zipperer averages 12.5 yards per reception in his career at UF. Until I see Elksnis get on the field, I won't comment beyond the comments we've seen in the media that he is going to be a threat at some point. At the receiver position, the top two returning are Copeland and Shorter. Both have had some great plays in their Gators career, but both have had plenty of dropped balls. If they have improved their hands they will lend stability to the position. Right behind them will be Henderson (my pick for breakout offensive star) and Whittemore, who also showed flashes last year before ending the season with a punctured lung. I am not sure if this group can have the high ceilings of what was lost, but this can be a solid group with the ability to do enough to keep defenses honest.
Defense
I think we can all agree that 2020's defense was the worst in most of our lifetimes. I think we can all agree that there is close to no way it can be worse in 2021. As I've said elsewhere, I believe there is some addition by subtraction when it comes to this defense. Again, deciding to be optimistic about this season I will believe this will be our best defense since 2018. If it isn't, there are jobs on the line.
The defensive line has two new tackles, Newkirk and Valentino who bring a wealth of experience to the line. Also, Gervon Dexter backing up the pair will be very useful. He played great at times as a raw true freshman last year, but this year will have more of an impact. An actual spring season and off season workouts with Savage can change some players and I believe Dexter is one that can get a big benefit out of all of this. His teammates have raved about him and I believe he may be the defensive breakout player this season. I also expect to see some of Watson drawing double teams a few plays a game, you have Mt. Cody, play him. On the edges Zach Carter, Brenton Cox and company return with the hope of setting the edges. Yes, I do consider Buck a DE more than I do a LB. I expect the DE and Buck to have a better year with more consistency on the inside. IF this group can get pressure in all 12 games, this will be the team to watch. However, if they, like 2019, try to make their name by beating up on a bunch of overmatched teams and disappear when it matters, we're going to have a bad time.
Linebacker is what it is going to be. Recently on Gators Breakdown Ben Troupe confirmed what I had figured in watching the UF video of Brandon Spikes return to campus, that Spikes called out Ventrell Miller about carrying his head high when the defense was as bad as it was. We had heard Spikes make a comment about not being sure if the players could handle what he had to say, but Troupe's comments I believe resonated based on what we've been hearing. Diabate will be seeing time at the "money" spot vacated by Houston's departure. I would hope to see more Hopper and Wingo as well. On paper, this is the best LB corps we have had. However, they still need to prove it. Playing on two LB's at the time most of the time will not help the run defense if the DT's cannot produce better than 2020.
The defensive backfield should regain some of its aura after the disastrous 2020 campaign. Elam's return at one corner position will lock down one side of the field. We will just say that there are a few players that should be a step up from Wilson's 2020 form. We will miss Hill for the season, but if Helm is playing like they say we will be ok. Can't be much worse. In the spring Helm ran a 4.3 40, which tells me he should be able to keep up with most receivers he will face. We shouldn't count out 5* freshman Marshall, who some scrimmage reports have him being called a lockdown guy and Elijah Blades will bring SEC experience as well. The Star position should be interesting as Trevez Johnson who had a mixed 2020 is projected to start currently. The good news is that he has now had a spring and offseason to learn the position and improve his game there. However, Diwun Black is said to be coming for the position. What he needs right now is to learn the position and the playbook. The impact of new coaches in the defensive backfield cannot be understated. One coaching change I think will help is increased press coverage. Press coverage does two things, one throws off timing on routes and two with the time thrown off it buys the pass rushers just that much more time. Hopefully, the days of 10 yards off the ball on 3rd and 3 are gone. We can hope.
The safety position is the position that needs to change the most from last year from 2021. This position group, more than any other adds by subtraction. In limited play last year Trey Dean was our best safety in my opinion. Now, he will be able to show off a bit more after playing out of position for most of his Gators career due to the needs of the defense. Rashad Torrence also showed promise last year as a freshman. I imagine we will see more. If the safeties can step up this year, it will help the rest of the defense. I like what I have heard coming from the DB room regarding communication, hopefully we will see it from week one.
Special Teams
Not much to say other than a new punter and kicker, neither of which I can saw I'm excited for or that I am in fear of their playing.
Schedule
FAU- Taggart and Perry come to town. This should not be 2015 all over again, if it is, be prepared for a long year. Gators win.
USF- Not a fan of these away games at group of 5 teams. However, if we must do it, at least it is in Tampa. Pseudo home game for UF. USF was 1-8 last year with the only win being against the Citadel. If they beat us, time to begin having that conversation. We should win handily.
Bama- Bama starts off with a Miami team that returns King and was 8-3 last year. I doubt Miami wins, but I do think it will expose how this Bama squad will handle a true dual threat QB. As I've discussed with a few people, we can hide a lot our first two games while Bama may not be able to. Also, three new OL starters, new QB, new RB, replacing top two WR's and a new OC in the first true road game of the year. I'll agree with Spurrier, I believe circumstantially, we can pull this one out.
Tennessee- This one is tricky, Vols have lost a lot. I like Heupel. We will be recovering from Bama, they will be coming from a Tennessee Tech cake walk. This one will be closer than it should be because of it, btu we pull it out.
Kentucky- Will this be the year Kentucky finishes the close game against UF at home? Since 2003 the game has been close more times than not in Lexington. After the first 5 UF has and UK coming off of a newish Carolina team, it will be another close one. I believe UF squeaks out a win.
Vandy- Despite Vandy getting an awful UConn team that got cornholed last night the week before us (notice the pattern of games teams get before us) this team is not beating us at home barring a 2013 type meltdown.
LSU- This road game, especially after this week, will mean a lot to the State of Louisiana. They do get a physical Kentucky team in Lexington the week before so we shouldn't believe they can beat us right? There's nothing showing that Canada is coming back through the door right? Well, I think this will be our first slip up, which pains me as I will be taking my mom to Tiger Stadium for this one.
Georgia- We will know a lot about UGA before Jacksonville. We will both have played Kentucky and Vandy. We will have had Bama, they will have had Clemson. We will have LSU, they will have Auburn. I am going to have faith here and give us the nod. I'm not sold on JT Daniels and UGA just yet, but they could make a believer and I do believe we can pull this one out.
South Carolina- New year, new me for the Cocks. However, they are replacing a lot including Muschamp. They catch a bye week the week before us. I don't think it matters. We win this one.
Samford- This will end up being the Richardson show. We rack up a ton of defensive stats for people to point to later. UF wins.
Mizzou- I hope I'm wrong, but I have a feeling this is loss number two. Seems like this game is already circled on their schedule. They do have Carolina the week before us, but I'm not sure Carolina will be playing for anything by then. I don't bye the cold weather argument after being in Tennessee last December. This is our fluky loss for the year in my opinion.
FSU- You wanna lose the fanbase? Lose to this FSU team. I expect hem to be better than most. However, that does not change this team still isn't there. I like Norvell and many of you know I wanted him here. Curious to how the program looks in a year or two. Either way, we aren't throwing the last game of the year away this year.
There are my predictions for the season, 10-2. I see anything from 7-5 (with coaching changes to come, not HC because that isn't happening) to 11-1. I'll take the optimistic approach here. Emory does what we need him to, defense actually shows up in the big games, and we look promising going into 2022 (we can discuss that later).
We have a choice going into the season, be optimistic and hope we've fixed the issues or have low expectations. I understand both, it is a choice. I'm choosing one route, I know there are others on this board who see an 8-4 ceiling. We will see. The most important thing is that Gators Football is back and on Saturdays we will support our team.
Go Gators!
Offense
The offense is moving on from being a pass happy, record setting offense to one of a run-first offense that is more of Dan Mullen's style. We all have heard and seen a lot of that sentiment. I believe in a way that it is a good thing. Don't get me wrong, I prefer a wide open passing attack as opposed to a run first offense. However, I recognize that Mullen recruits, develops, and his mindset is more comfortable with this style of play. If he is in his comfort zone, he should be better calling plays in theory. On that note, I do believe that Brian Johnson was a much bigger part of the offensive scheme last year than most are willing to admit. I do not think even with the same parts, the 2020 unit is as productive without Brian Johnson taking on the role he did as Offensive Coordinator.
The offensive line returns three starters and I'm not sure if that is a good or a bad thing. Since the style of offense is changing, it might be good that we have new blood starting as the line was not good at run blocking for the most part in 2020. I am curious to see how Gouraige does out at left tackle. He was decent in pass protection in 2020 at left guard, but according to this article by Will Miles, the inside left was the worst place to run last season. Ethan White was expected to start last year, but injuries kept him out most of the season and limited his playing time. That might have been a blessing in disguise as it allow for a position battle at center that probably would not have happened otherwise. Kingsley Eguakun apparently has been a pleasant surprise grabbing the brass ring to take the starting job at center. We have rarely seen someone unseat an anointed starter under Mullen so you know this is probably a good sign. The 6th year senior right side of Reese and Delance struggled in pass protection last year and I don't expect much growth in year 6 for them, but according to the same article tagged above runs to the right were much more effective and Delance might have been the best run blocker last year. I'm going to believe that the switch in focus and change in starters will make this line a good, but not great one.
The backfield as a whole has the capability to be dangerous on the ground. Like 2014 Georgia game dangerous on the ground. We've seen Emory Jones break some nice runs over the years as well as some from Davis (in 2017) and Pierce. The 5 star guys and Wright may have them beat in top end speed and shiftiness though. It will be interesting in seeing how the carries are split. Do you use a lot of Pierce and his experience early to beat up opposing defenses? Do you use the speedy guys to get the opposing defenses gassed and then pound them with Pierce. With rumors of two RB sets, do you triple option Pierce for an inside run and take Emory and another guy outside? Maybe I am getting ahead of myself, but the unknown makes me excited for what we will see.
Speaking of Emory, we've seen for years that he has a nice deep ball. Now, the question will be can he do well enough in the intermediate passing game to keep the defense honest and stop the opposing defense from putting 8 in the box. He looked pretty good against Auburn for that series back in 2019. Since then, he's been hit and miss in the passing game. A plus that we do have is that we now have a guy who when a play breaks down can pull the ball and take off running. A QB spy takes one more man out of the passing game. The reports say that he has improved his passing, how much he has will decide the offense's fate in 2021.
The question is "who will he throw it to?" after the departures of Pitts, Grimes, and Toney. I don't think there is a short list to replace their production. Gamble and Zipperer have shown ability to replace part of what Pitts brought in the passing game last year. For what it is worth, Zipperer averages 12.5 yards per reception in his career at UF. Until I see Elksnis get on the field, I won't comment beyond the comments we've seen in the media that he is going to be a threat at some point. At the receiver position, the top two returning are Copeland and Shorter. Both have had some great plays in their Gators career, but both have had plenty of dropped balls. If they have improved their hands they will lend stability to the position. Right behind them will be Henderson (my pick for breakout offensive star) and Whittemore, who also showed flashes last year before ending the season with a punctured lung. I am not sure if this group can have the high ceilings of what was lost, but this can be a solid group with the ability to do enough to keep defenses honest.
Defense
I think we can all agree that 2020's defense was the worst in most of our lifetimes. I think we can all agree that there is close to no way it can be worse in 2021. As I've said elsewhere, I believe there is some addition by subtraction when it comes to this defense. Again, deciding to be optimistic about this season I will believe this will be our best defense since 2018. If it isn't, there are jobs on the line.
The defensive line has two new tackles, Newkirk and Valentino who bring a wealth of experience to the line. Also, Gervon Dexter backing up the pair will be very useful. He played great at times as a raw true freshman last year, but this year will have more of an impact. An actual spring season and off season workouts with Savage can change some players and I believe Dexter is one that can get a big benefit out of all of this. His teammates have raved about him and I believe he may be the defensive breakout player this season. I also expect to see some of Watson drawing double teams a few plays a game, you have Mt. Cody, play him. On the edges Zach Carter, Brenton Cox and company return with the hope of setting the edges. Yes, I do consider Buck a DE more than I do a LB. I expect the DE and Buck to have a better year with more consistency on the inside. IF this group can get pressure in all 12 games, this will be the team to watch. However, if they, like 2019, try to make their name by beating up on a bunch of overmatched teams and disappear when it matters, we're going to have a bad time.
Linebacker is what it is going to be. Recently on Gators Breakdown Ben Troupe confirmed what I had figured in watching the UF video of Brandon Spikes return to campus, that Spikes called out Ventrell Miller about carrying his head high when the defense was as bad as it was. We had heard Spikes make a comment about not being sure if the players could handle what he had to say, but Troupe's comments I believe resonated based on what we've been hearing. Diabate will be seeing time at the "money" spot vacated by Houston's departure. I would hope to see more Hopper and Wingo as well. On paper, this is the best LB corps we have had. However, they still need to prove it. Playing on two LB's at the time most of the time will not help the run defense if the DT's cannot produce better than 2020.
The defensive backfield should regain some of its aura after the disastrous 2020 campaign. Elam's return at one corner position will lock down one side of the field. We will just say that there are a few players that should be a step up from Wilson's 2020 form. We will miss Hill for the season, but if Helm is playing like they say we will be ok. Can't be much worse. In the spring Helm ran a 4.3 40, which tells me he should be able to keep up with most receivers he will face. We shouldn't count out 5* freshman Marshall, who some scrimmage reports have him being called a lockdown guy and Elijah Blades will bring SEC experience as well. The Star position should be interesting as Trevez Johnson who had a mixed 2020 is projected to start currently. The good news is that he has now had a spring and offseason to learn the position and improve his game there. However, Diwun Black is said to be coming for the position. What he needs right now is to learn the position and the playbook. The impact of new coaches in the defensive backfield cannot be understated. One coaching change I think will help is increased press coverage. Press coverage does two things, one throws off timing on routes and two with the time thrown off it buys the pass rushers just that much more time. Hopefully, the days of 10 yards off the ball on 3rd and 3 are gone. We can hope.
The safety position is the position that needs to change the most from last year from 2021. This position group, more than any other adds by subtraction. In limited play last year Trey Dean was our best safety in my opinion. Now, he will be able to show off a bit more after playing out of position for most of his Gators career due to the needs of the defense. Rashad Torrence also showed promise last year as a freshman. I imagine we will see more. If the safeties can step up this year, it will help the rest of the defense. I like what I have heard coming from the DB room regarding communication, hopefully we will see it from week one.
Special Teams
Not much to say other than a new punter and kicker, neither of which I can saw I'm excited for or that I am in fear of their playing.
Schedule
FAU- Taggart and Perry come to town. This should not be 2015 all over again, if it is, be prepared for a long year. Gators win.
USF- Not a fan of these away games at group of 5 teams. However, if we must do it, at least it is in Tampa. Pseudo home game for UF. USF was 1-8 last year with the only win being against the Citadel. If they beat us, time to begin having that conversation. We should win handily.
Bama- Bama starts off with a Miami team that returns King and was 8-3 last year. I doubt Miami wins, but I do think it will expose how this Bama squad will handle a true dual threat QB. As I've discussed with a few people, we can hide a lot our first two games while Bama may not be able to. Also, three new OL starters, new QB, new RB, replacing top two WR's and a new OC in the first true road game of the year. I'll agree with Spurrier, I believe circumstantially, we can pull this one out.
Tennessee- This one is tricky, Vols have lost a lot. I like Heupel. We will be recovering from Bama, they will be coming from a Tennessee Tech cake walk. This one will be closer than it should be because of it, btu we pull it out.
Kentucky- Will this be the year Kentucky finishes the close game against UF at home? Since 2003 the game has been close more times than not in Lexington. After the first 5 UF has and UK coming off of a newish Carolina team, it will be another close one. I believe UF squeaks out a win.
Vandy- Despite Vandy getting an awful UConn team that got cornholed last night the week before us (notice the pattern of games teams get before us) this team is not beating us at home barring a 2013 type meltdown.
LSU- This road game, especially after this week, will mean a lot to the State of Louisiana. They do get a physical Kentucky team in Lexington the week before so we shouldn't believe they can beat us right? There's nothing showing that Canada is coming back through the door right? Well, I think this will be our first slip up, which pains me as I will be taking my mom to Tiger Stadium for this one.
Georgia- We will know a lot about UGA before Jacksonville. We will both have played Kentucky and Vandy. We will have had Bama, they will have had Clemson. We will have LSU, they will have Auburn. I am going to have faith here and give us the nod. I'm not sold on JT Daniels and UGA just yet, but they could make a believer and I do believe we can pull this one out.
South Carolina- New year, new me for the Cocks. However, they are replacing a lot including Muschamp. They catch a bye week the week before us. I don't think it matters. We win this one.
Samford- This will end up being the Richardson show. We rack up a ton of defensive stats for people to point to later. UF wins.
Mizzou- I hope I'm wrong, but I have a feeling this is loss number two. Seems like this game is already circled on their schedule. They do have Carolina the week before us, but I'm not sure Carolina will be playing for anything by then. I don't bye the cold weather argument after being in Tennessee last December. This is our fluky loss for the year in my opinion.
FSU- You wanna lose the fanbase? Lose to this FSU team. I expect hem to be better than most. However, that does not change this team still isn't there. I like Norvell and many of you know I wanted him here. Curious to how the program looks in a year or two. Either way, we aren't throwing the last game of the year away this year.
There are my predictions for the season, 10-2. I see anything from 7-5 (with coaching changes to come, not HC because that isn't happening) to 11-1. I'll take the optimistic approach here. Emory does what we need him to, defense actually shows up in the big games, and we look promising going into 2022 (we can discuss that later).
We have a choice going into the season, be optimistic and hope we've fixed the issues or have low expectations. I understand both, it is a choice. I'm choosing one route, I know there are others on this board who see an 8-4 ceiling. We will see. The most important thing is that Gators Football is back and on Saturdays we will support our team.
Go Gators!
