Mortgage rates

[BMF]

Here is a good example of what I am talking about what is happening over here in PBC. Very nice home listed in Dec. for 950K Probably would have sold 2 years ago at the price in 1-5 days. 45 days later dropped the price by 25K. Now 45 days later, again, just dropped the price by 125K. Rough math says that is about 15% drop from initial list price. That is very common right now around here.

I've seen similar situations like that around my area - but those are mostly outliers (someone way, way over-priced the listing, or it's just in need of a full renovation). Most of the houses near me aren't worth much more than $600k, unless they are on the water, have a ton of square footage, or are located in the "downtown" district (of Gulfport). Many of these houses are under 1200sf, selling for well over $350/sf.

 

[soflagator]

I've seen similar situations like that around my area - but those are mostly outliers (someone way, way over-priced the listed, or it's just in need of a full renovation). Most of the houses near me aren't worth much more than $600k, unless they are on the water, have a ton of square footage, or are located in the "downtown" district (of Gulfport). Many of these houses are under 1200sf, selling for well over $350/sf.

RE has always been about niches. I sold two investment properties at a profit in Miami in June 2005 simply because the increase had outpaced what someone who would live there could afford. Within months they’d fallen apart and I would’ve been bringing money to closing. No different today. Homes, and entire areas, that have actual intrinsic value will see declines but be fine. Areas that are inflated simply due to the rising tides theory will get hammered.

And I full agree that that scenario of the 900k home is probably due to some circumstance we don’t know. But also, anything north of the 800k range(in Florida) takes on its own niche in that it’s not affordable for a massive portion of the population. People buying homes at close to a million have to know and be prepared to sit on them for some time, even riding out a storm, just because there isn’t a huge market for them. That sounds like a buyer who was way over their skis to begin with or has realized his/her home isn’t on par with the comps. Like I mentioned last week, that almost happened to us with a neighbor dropping his pants before deciding to update.

 

[FireFoley]

RE has always been about niches. I sold two investment properties at a profit in Miami in June 2005 simply because the increase had outpaced what someone who would live there could afford. Within months they’d fallen apart and I would’ve been bringing money to closing. No different today. Homes, and entire areas, that have actual intrinsic value will see declines but be fine. Areas that are inflated simply due to the rising tides theory will get hammered.

And I full agree that that scenario of the 900k home is probably due to some circumstance we don’t know. But also, anything north of the 800k range(in Florida) takes on its own niche in that it’s not affordable for a massive portion of the population. People buying homes at close to a million have to know and be prepared to sit on them for some time, even riding out a storm, just because there isn’t a huge market for them. That sounds like a buyer who was way over their skis to begin with or has realized his/her home isn’t on par with the comps. Like I mentioned last week, that almost happened to us with a neighbor dropping his pants before deciding to update.

The circumstance I mentioned about the 900K home is nothing more than timing. Nice neighborhood and homes smaller, without pools, sold for that or more 1-2 years ago. Where I am, most of those deals are cash and few care about comps. They are meaningless here b/c if people want it they just buy it, especially in that price range. Comps are irrelevant when sentiment changes especially with cash buyers.

 

[soflagator]

The circumstance I mentioned about the 900K home is nothing more than timing. Nice neighborhood and homes smaller, without pools, sold for that or more 1-2 years ago. Where I am, most of those deals are cash and few care about comps. They are meaningless here b/c if people want it they just buy it, especially in that price range. Comps are irrelevant when sentiment changes especially with cash buyers.

I’m saying comps is one element, but am not discounting a panicked seller, or some other reason one would drop 15% so quickly.

I’ll also add that I could totally see a decline of 15-20% in specific areas, more in less desirable locations. Can’t remember if you said you were in PBC in 2008 or not, but while everyone took a hit, the ones that were decimated were townhouses which just could not be unloaded, the obvious Tamarind type areas and almost anything west of 441. I’m seeing a lot of that now, in Gainesville as well, and think it will resemble that period but not to the same extreme.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

There will always be those that run to Florida and over pay for a home and then lose their job, or they or their spouse get homesick for the blue hellhole they came from....Those are the first to drop their pants when they need to sell and usually overpaid in the first place.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

I also think South Florida in general tends to have more Johnny come lately, get rich quick who make a quick bundle of cash(often in RE itself) and overbuy and then lose all of their sh!t, completely different than here in the Orlando area where a lot of the higher up properties of say 800K and up are older more established money.

 

[FireFoley]

Here is a very prime example of what is going on here, especially the properties bought by investors/contractors. rehabbed and now they are hoping to break even, at best. You can see this if you scroll down to Property History. But I will summarize. Bought Summer 2022 for 355K, the national Kung Flu top. Rehabbed. Listed for 650K, dropped to 615K, dropped to 595K, dropped to 560K, dropped to 520K, now 480K. A 20+% price drop from first list. Trust me, knowing this community and the condition it is currently in, had this been listed 2021, would have brought 600K.

7145 Promenade Dr Unit 101C, Boca Raton, FL 33433 | realtor.com®

See photos and price history of this 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,825 Sq. Ft. recently sold home located at 7145 Promenade Dr Unit 101C, Boca Raton, FL 33433 that was sold on 09/02/2023 for $370000.

www.realtor.com

 

[soflagator]

Here is a very prime example of what is going on here, especially the properties bought by investors/contractors. rehabbed and now they are hoping to break even, at best. You can see this if you scroll down to Property History. But I will summarize. Bought Summer 2022 for 355K, the national Kung Flu top. Rehabbed. Listed for 650K, dropped to 615K, dropped to 595K, dropped to 560K, dropped to 520K, now 480K. A 20+% price drop from first list. Trust me, knowing this community and the condition it is currently in, had this been listed 2021, would have brought 600K.

7145 Promenade Dr Unit 101C, Boca Raton, FL 33433 | realtor.com®

See photos and price history of this 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,825 Sq. Ft. recently sold home located at 7145 Promenade Dr Unit 101C, Boca Raton, FL 33433 that was sold on 09/02/2023 for $370000.

www.realtor.com

Yep. Those are the idiots who will end up weighing down an entire building and area. So many things working against that place. Condo, clearly built in the 70s/80s with those 6.5 foot ceilings, bought the high, probably had to spend a fortune on the infrastructure at a premium before even getting to the superficial stuff($100 says it had popcorn), also at a premium. Add in the HOA which is probably insane for a building like that, and they’ll either be sitting for a while or taking a bath.

 

[BMF]

Here is a very prime example of what is going on here, especially the properties bought by investors/contractors. rehabbed and now they are hoping to break even, at best. You can see this if you scroll down to Property History. But I will summarize. Bought Summer 2022 for 355K, the national Kung Flu top. Rehabbed. Listed for 650K, dropped to 615K, dropped to 595K, dropped to 560K, dropped to 520K, now 480K. A 20+% price drop from first list. Trust me, knowing this community and the condition it is currently in, had this been listed 2021, would have brought 600K.

7145 Promenade Dr Unit 101C, Boca Raton, FL 33433 | realtor.com®

See photos and price history of this 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,825 Sq. Ft. recently sold home located at 7145 Promenade Dr Unit 101C, Boca Raton, FL 33433 that was sold on 09/02/2023 for $370000.

www.realtor.com

Oooof! They're going to take a beating - plus they're paying that $862/mo HOA fee. This is an example of over pricing the initial asking price. Once a place sits for 21+ days it becomes a 'stale listing', that's when prices start to tumble.

 

[soflagator]

Oooof! They're going to take a beating - plus they're paying that $862/mo HOA fee. This is an example of over pricing the initial asking price. Once a place sits for 21+ days it becomes a 'stale listing', that's when prices start to tumble.

They need to get Flagg or Altman involved asap.

 

[FireFoley]

They need to get Flagg or Altman involved asap.

Yeah, those 2 Heebs would fit in perfectly down here!

 

[Detroitgator]

They need to get Flagg or Altman involved asap.

I cried a few weeks ago when the season ended.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Ohhhh yeahhh baby, now were talkin.... now we just need to get that 40 year refi going too..... couple this with even the slightest drop in rates(which is about all but guaranteed by this summer) The Crack is back.....

FHA approved 40-year mortgage for certain homebuyers in May

The Federal Housing Administration announced it's increasing term options to include a 40-year mortgage in May.

www.abc15.com

 

[Detroitgator]

@FireFoley
Son #2’s rotation right now is in Special Servicing Group… huge uptake in workload for commercial

 

[BMF]

This just listed a few blocks from my house: 2/1, 864sf - fully remodeled.....$554/sf ($479k). This is an example of an a-hole overpricing. I hope they eat the carrying costs for 3+ months, greedy mfer's!

2105 52nd St S, Gulfport, FL 33707 | realtor.com®

2105 52nd St S, Gulfport, FL 33707 is pending. View 40 photos of this 2 bed, 1 bath, 864 sqft. single family home with a list price of $450000.

www.realtor.com

 

[BMF]

Ohhhh yeahhh baby, now were talkin.... now we just need to get that 40 year refi going too..... couple this with even the slightest drop in rates(which is about all but guaranteed by this summer) The Crack is back.....

FHA approved 40-year mortgage for certain homebuyers in May

The Federal Housing Administration announced it's increasing term options to include a 40-year mortgage in May.

www.abc15.com

The article says it's just for people who are in default (because of covid), doesn't mention new home buyers....but I'm sure that'll come sooner or later.

 

[Egor's Assistant]

This just listed a few blocks from my house: 2/1, 864sf - fully remodeled.....$554/sf ($479k). This is an example of an a-hole overpricing. I hope they eat the carrying costs for 3+ months, greedy mfer's!

2105 52nd St S, Gulfport, FL 33707 | realtor.com®

2105 52nd St S, Gulfport, FL 33707 is pending. View 40 photos of this 2 bed, 1 bath, 864 sqft. single family home with a list price of $450000.

www.realtor.com

I clicked on that expecting an ocean view. Guess we're not moving back to Florida after all. I figured the hurricanes would have driven prices down further. Going have to wait for those 8.5% mortgage rates to get better prices.

 

[URGatorBait]

I clicked on that expecting an ocean view. Guess we're not moving back to Florida after all. I figured the hurricanes would have driven prices down further. Going have to wait for those 8.5% mortgage rates to get better prices.

While the entire state is probably over priced, that particular location isn't representative of the state as a whole. That is WAY over priced...and is only because of location that they are even attempting it.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

The article says it's just for people who are in default (because of covid), doesn't mention new home buyers....but I'm sure that'll come sooner or later.

No that's already in place. They are rolling out 40yr purchase money mortgages may 1st. Just talked to an investor who's interested in buying one of my rentals.....they're doing full rehabs on everything they are buying because of this new program to meet FHA requirements....hope he's ready to put 80K into mine....

 

[Concrete Helmet]

A lot of movement out there brewing....Closed 2 commercial properties in the last week, 1.1M and 1.5M today and picked up another from the same seller for close 2M closing in the next few weeks....all cash deals(at least on paper)

Residential purchases are picking up too as well as probate/trust passed refi's....I've seen 2 in the last week that were refied at 4.375 for 15yr....That said they paid ALOT up front to buy down the rate.

Heloc's not slowing down at all, A ton on investment properties...meaning their likely to off them pretty soon....