2022 investing thread

Detroitgator

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
Jul 15, 2014
28,767
47,898
Crete asked a pretty simple question regarding how they can say inflation is only 7.5% and I answered it. It wasn't an argument and I don't disagree with the things he said.

If you are trying to get a measure of how much prices are increasing in the market and how hard it's going to be to recover from massive fiscal stimulus and QE from the Fed, then 7.5% is too low.

That being said, if you are trying to gauge the impact of price increases on the average American right now for purposes such as determining how much wealth is redistributed by the welfare state, then 7.5% might be a decent measure.
I'm with ya, and I wasn't try to argue with you either. The reality of the situation is that going back at least 20 years (and really 30-40+), the metrics that were once used to measure such things have been rendered almost completely useless. We're trying to use old monetary system (pre-71) metrics to a monetary world/system that has gone bananas at an increasing rate and just makes schit up as it goes.
 

Bernardo de la Paz

Founding Member
Florida Victorious Member
Lifetime Member
Jun 12, 2014
5,426
9,474
Founding Member
I'm with ya, and I wasn't try to argue with you either. The reality of the situation is that going back at least 20 years (and really 30-40+), the metrics that were once used to measure such things have been rendered almost completely useless. We're trying to use old monetary system (pre-71) metrics to a monetary world/system that has gone bananas at an increasing rate and just makes schit up as it goes.
What's the better way though? There are numerous measures of inflation out there other than CPI, but they all have their own issues. I tend to think any indicator can be useful as long as you understand how it is collected and what the limitations are.

We're lamenting right now that CPI is really a lagging indicator and that inflation is much worse than what's being reported in the news. And that painful truth will likely eventually lead to late action by the Fed and an eventual overreaction.

At the same time it's always been my opinion that in the long run inflation is a bit overstated by CPI in the way it's often used to determine real changes in income over time.

Whenever I see these articles that assert you aren't better off than your parents because maybe you spend a larger percentage of your income on a car, but don't factor in things like the fact that your car might respond to voice commands or even have the ability to drive itself. The basket of goods simply isn't the same today as it was 20 or 40 years ago and there's really no way to fix that.
 

FireFoley

Senior Member
Lifetime Member
Nov 19, 2014
9,397
15,117
$41, pretax, for 8 razor blades. Saw it at store yesterday. (Dollar shave club gentlemen, it’s worth it)
40195

Funny you post razor blades as the cost has always been high IMO. I still use an older razor with only 3 blades. My theory has always been that I cut myself plenty with 3 blades why do I need a lot more? So the last time I found what I used at a reasonable price was at Publix, on the discount or discontinued rack, I found about 4 packages. Hopefully I am good for a year or so.
 

Bernardo de la Paz

Founding Member
Florida Victorious Member
Lifetime Member
Jun 12, 2014
5,426
9,474
Founding Member
Funny you post razor blades as the cost has always been high IMO. I still use an older razor with only 3 blades. My theory has always been that I cut myself plenty with 3 blades why do I need a lot more? So the last time I found what I used at a reasonable price was at Publix, on the discount or discontinued rack, I found about 4 packages. Hopefully I am good for a year or so.
 

Concrete Helmet

Hook, Line, and Sinker
Lifetime Member
Jul 29, 2014
22,331
23,729
As mentioned some of you old timers probably don't feel inflation as much as some of the rest of us younger, still working(driving a lot)still eating(old people never have an appetite) still drinking and still with underage/college age kids. We also don't get Medicare or Medicaid or whatever it is that gives you free medical and medicine stuff, no free rides to the Doctor or shopping or any Early Bird discounts when we go out to eat.......f vckin old people....:lol2:
 

FireFoley

Senior Member
Lifetime Member
Nov 19, 2014
9,397
15,117
As mentioned some of you old timers probably don't feel inflation as much as some of the rest of us younger, still working(driving a lot)still eating(old people never have an appetite) still drinking and still with underage/college age kids. We also don't get Medicare or Medicaid or whatever it is that gives you free medical and medicine stuff, no free rides to the Doctor or shopping or any Early Bird discounts when we go out to eat.......f vckin old people....:lol2:

What I heard you say sounded exactly like this......................

https://archive.org/download/neil-rogers-show-soundboard/Bop-Bop-Bop.mp3
 

BMF

Bad Mother....
Lifetime Member
Sep 8, 2014
25,456
59,497
Let me ask you guys about 'umbrella' insurance (for liability coverage).

I am buying a new truck (2021 Ford Ranger) and I called USAA to add the truck to the policy. Anyhow, they asked me about wanting to add umbrella coverage. I did a little research on it previously and had considered it. So I added $1 million, at around $500/year. I raised the coverage on the vehicles to $300k each (we have a Honda, now the Ford, and wife has a Jaguar F-type as a weekend type use car). Any thoughts on that, good decision, bad decision?
 

Bernardo de la Paz

Founding Member
Florida Victorious Member
Lifetime Member
Jun 12, 2014
5,426
9,474
Founding Member
As mentioned some of you old timers probably don't feel inflation as much as some of the rest of us younger, still working(driving a lot)still eating(old people never have an appetite) still drinking and still with underage/college age kids. We also don't get Medicare or Medicaid or whatever it is that gives you free medical and medicine stuff, no free rides to the Doctor or shopping or any Early Bird discounts when we go out to eat.......f vckin old people....:lol2:
I always thought it was the opposite of this.

Young people's salaries go up, equities go up, and their debt gets relatively smaller.

Old people on fixed income who've moved their assets from equities into bonds get screwed.
 

FireFoley

Senior Member
Lifetime Member
Nov 19, 2014
9,397
15,117
I always thought it was the opposite of this.

Young people's salaries go up, equities go up, and their debt gets relatively smaller.

Old people on fixed income who've moved their assets from equities into bonds get screwed.

I think that is past thinking on the subject. Debt seems to progressively get higher both in nominal and real terms, these days. As someone so eloquently put it the other day, there is no such thing anymore as a business cycle. We now have credit cycles.
 

Concrete Helmet

Hook, Line, and Sinker
Lifetime Member
Jul 29, 2014
22,331
23,729
Old people on fixed income who've moved their assets from equities into bonds get screwed.
Well in all fairness bond yields have been falling for about 40 years....in fact the long bond chart goes down at almost a perfect 45 degree angle if looking at a long term chart from the mid 80's....mean while us "younger people" will be at the mercy of equities and the effect the Fed has on them :suicide: and hoping we don't get another RE crash close to shutting down(retiring)

I've begged my Mom for the last few years to sell off some of her bonds and convert them to value based stocks and recently oil/energy/materials where it's still pretty easy to find a 5-6% dividend. You guys think I'm hard headed....
 

Concrete Helmet

Hook, Line, and Sinker
Lifetime Member
Jul 29, 2014
22,331
23,729
Let me ask you guys about 'umbrella' insurance (for liability coverage).

I am buying a new truck (2021 Ford Ranger) and I called USAA to add the truck to the policy. Anyhow, they asked me about wanting to add umbrella coverage. I did a little research on it previously and had considered it. So I added $1 million, at around $500/year. I raised the coverage on the vehicles to $300k each (we have a Honda, now the Ford, and wife has a Jaguar F-type as a weekend type use car). Any thoughts on that, good decision, bad decision?
You're young and can afford to blow through money as you please....regardless of the current thread title this thread should be called "How long till Jerome crash lands the burning plane"...:lol:
 

FireFoley

Senior Member
Lifetime Member
Nov 19, 2014
9,397
15,117
Well in all fairness bond yields have been falling for about 40 years....in fact the long bond chart goes down at almost a perfect 45 degree angle if looking at a long term chart from the mid 80's....mean while us "younger people" will be at the mercy of equities and the effect the Fed has on them :suicide: and hoping we don't get another RE crash close to shutting down(retiring)

I've begged my Mom for the last few years to sell off some of her bonds and convert them to value based stocks and recently oil/energy/materials where it's still pretty easy to find a 5-6% dividend. You guys think I'm hard headed....

I for one do not think you are hard headed in all regards. Some regards, yes, but not all. I actually subscribe to your last paragraph quite a bit and have one rather substantial account that is based on that thought. I call it my fixed income portfolio, without any fixed income. They are basically common stocks, with dividends between 3 % and 8% and for the most part are not very volatile in normal times. Now they have been a little more volatile in the past few years and I concede that the upside may not be that great, but I also believe the downside is limited. Now I am very selective about my entry points, which a lot of people are not using this strategy b/c they just look at the dividend, but very high dividends could be very huge red flags. Just a few names that allow me to sleep at night and don;t offer huge wins or losses are T, VZ, PM, MO, and many electric Utilities. My biggest losers come from the pipelines group but they have stabilized a bit. But if purchased correctly, some big winners have been had in names like CVS, BX, Even IBM at a time, ABBV, Etc. These offered juicy total returns relative to some of the stodgy utilities, but it was the stable dividend that drove me to them initially.
 

Concrete Helmet

Hook, Line, and Sinker
Lifetime Member
Jul 29, 2014
22,331
23,729
I for one do not think you are hard headed in all regards. Some regards, yes, but not all. I actually subscribe to your last paragraph quite a bit and have one rather substantial account that is based on that thought. I call it my fixed income portfolio, without any fixed income. They are basically common stocks, with dividends between 3 % and 8% and for the most part are not very volatile in normal times. Now they have been a little more volatile in the past few years and I concede that the upside may not be that great, but I also believe the downside is limited. Now I am very selective about my entry points, which a lot of people are not using this strategy b/c they just look at the dividend, but very high dividends could be very huge red flags. Just a few names that allow me to sleep at night and don;t offer huge wins or losses are T, VZ, PM, MO, and many electric Utilities. My biggest losers come from the pipelines group but they have stabilized a bit. But if purchased correctly, some big winners have been had in names like CVS, BX, Even IBM at a time, ABBV, Etc. These offered juicy total returns relative to some of the stodgy utilities, but it was the stable dividend that drove me to them initially.
Sounds like a good strategy to me for someone relying on fixed income or at this point looking to avoid the chaos within general equities or growth stocks. I've shifted the majority of my holdings to companies who can pass on the higher prices that inflation brings. I don't expect huge upside from about half of them but if some of the oil/energy stocks return any where close to mean(2013) I'll be happier than a pig in mud.....I've also shifted a lot of what was in growth/tech over to materials/commodities and been seeing steady green instead of the huge green and red days the nasdaq has been serving up.

Speaking of utilities I've been researching some utility royalty companies as the royalty should go up with higher utility rates(?)....ever heard of these or know anything about them?
 

FireFoley

Senior Member
Lifetime Member
Nov 19, 2014
9,397
15,117
Sounds like a good strategy to me for someone relying on fixed income or at this point looking to avoid the chaos within general equities or growth stocks. I've shifted the majority of my holdings to companies who can pass on the higher prices that inflation brings. I don't expect huge upside from about half of them but if some of the oil/energy stocks return any where close to mean(2013) I'll be happier than a pig in mud.....I've also shifted a lot of what was in growth/tech over to materials/commodities and been seeing steady green instead of the huge green and red days the nasdaq has been serving up.

Speaking of utilities I've been researching some utility royalty companies as the royalty should go up with higher utility rates(?)....ever heard of these or know anything about them?

Not familiar with royalty companies, but that sounds risky in that many Utilities are regulated and can't raise prices without applying and possibly can;t offset cost? so I just stick with the old stodgy ones like DUK and Con Ed, Dominion etc. But I kind of do something similar in the interest rate quadrant by playing floating rate bank loans based on the yield curve. right now not looking so good, but they can be purchased well below par depending on duration. As long as the banks do not go out of biz, at least you can reap the appreciation in price even if the yield is Zero.
 

Egor's Assistant

SAVE CHATTER
Lifetime Member
Nov 3, 2017
10,259
34,458
Breaking up is hard to do... We're firing our financial advisor after 2.5 years. The last 1.5 years have been horrible. I mean If we're going to lose money, I would rather not pay someone 1% to lose it for me. Do any of you guys have a subscription newsletter that you like? Can I pay Brad's daughter $199/ year to pick em for me?
 

78

Founding Member
Dazed and Confused
Lifetime Member
Jun 9, 2014
19,758
27,660
Founding Member
Let me ask you guys about 'umbrella' insurance (for liability coverage).

I am buying a new truck (2021 Ford Ranger) and I called USAA to add the truck to the policy. Anyhow, they asked me about wanting to add umbrella coverage. I did a little research on it previously and had considered it. So I added $1 million, at around $500/year. I raised the coverage on the vehicles to $300k each (we have a Honda, now the Ford, and wife has a Jaguar F-type as a weekend type use car). Any thoughts on that, good decision, bad decision?

Umbrella coverage is one of the cheaper ways to protect your assets and also one of the more expensive. You now have a $1 million target on your back. Watch out for the hungry dudes jumping from billboards. They don’t care what it takes to get at that extra pile of money.

Seriously, if you have something meaningful to protect that your auto limits are not fulfilling, consider it. It’s cheap. But be mindful of the above.
 

78

Founding Member
Dazed and Confused
Lifetime Member
Jun 9, 2014
19,758
27,660
Founding Member
Well in all fairness bond yields have been falling for about 40 years....in fact the long bond chart goes down at almost a perfect 45 degree angle if looking at a long term chart from the mid 80's....mean while us "younger people" will be at the mercy of equities and the effect the Fed has on them :suicide: and hoping we don't get another RE crash close to shutting down(retiring)

I've begged my Mom for the last few years to sell off some of her bonds and convert them to value based stocks and recently oil/energy/materials where it's still pretty easy to find a 5-6% dividend. You guys think I'm hard headed....

That’s awful advice. Your mother’s older. She doesn’t need to be adding risk to her portfolio because you’ve decided bonds are tapped out. You drive a truck. Stick to what you know. You don’t know shyt about investing.
 

78

Founding Member
Dazed and Confused
Lifetime Member
Jun 9, 2014
19,758
27,660
Founding Member
As mentioned some of you old timers probably don't feel inflation as much as some of the rest of us younger, still working(driving a lot)still eating(old people never have an appetite) still drinking and still with underage/college age kids. We also don't get Medicare or Medicaid or whatever it is that gives you free medical and medicine stuff, no free rides to the Doctor or shopping or any Early Bird discounts when we go out to eat.......f vckin old people....:lol2:

Medicare isn’t free if your income is high enough. IRMAA addresses that. I pay almost as much now as when I was on Obamacare.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Help Users

You haven't joined any rooms.