2026 Investing Thread

[bradgator2]

New year. Let her rip....

 

[bradgator2]

Alright, as of Jan 2..... here is my current brokerage account.

Fund, exp ratio, % of portfolio
VOO (Vanguard S&P500, 0.03%): 22.6%
DGRO (iShares Core Dividend Growth, 0.08%): 20.4%
VGT (Vanguard Info Tech, 0.09%): 8.8%
VGK (Vanguard FTSE Europe, 0.06%): 8.0%
XLE (SPDR Energy, 0.08%): 7.9%
VOOG (Vanguard S&P Growth, 0.07%): 7.5%
MTUM (ishares Edge Momentum, 0.15%): 2.9%
VYM (Vanguard High Dividend Yield, 0.06%): 2.3%
VTI (Vanguard Total Market, 0.03%): 1.8%
VNQ (Vanguard Real Estate, 0.13%): 1.3%
SFYF (Sofi's top 50 stocks across all their investment accounts, 0.29%): 0.8%

Actual Stocks, % of portfolio (all combined 15.8% of portfolio):
SOFI: 5.5%
TSLA: 1.8%
RTX: 1.5%
AMD: 1.5%
NVDA: 1.3%
KO: 1.2%
TSM: 1.1%
AMZN: 1.1%
NU: 0.5%
FISV: 0.2%
HIMS: 0.2%
BDSX: 0.1%
FIG: 0.1%

So
S&P-ish 44%: VOO, VGT, VOOG, MTUM, VTI, SFYF.... all very similar with some small tweaks
Dividend Growth: 20% (could almost be clumped with the above)
Europe: 8%
Energy: 8%
High Yield: 2%
Real Estate: 1%
Individual Stocks: 16%

Some goals. I'm fairly happy with everything so maybe some small tweaks. The holdings didnt change much throughout 2025 (except some individual stocks) and it had a 19.2% return.
Normally wouldnt have 5% in an individual stock like SOFI.... But I've already grabbed my money out... so it is all running on house money.
Probably decrease total individual stocks down to 10%.
Maybe increase the RE to from 1.5 to 5%
Maybe increase High Yield Bond from 2 to 4%.
Maybe increase High Yield Bond a couple of %

 

[bradgator2]

Well, the market is certainly being kind today

 

[FireFoley]

Well, the market is certainly being kind today

Perhaps but it appears the largest and more popular tech names are struggling again. Not that I have a high concentration in them, I do not, but I own a select few, but I do watch it as it is what dominates the blowers. Wondering if the Nasdaq ends up in the red sometime today?

 

[URGatorBait]

Perhaps but it appears the largest and more popular tech names are struggling again. Not that I have a high concentration in them, I do not, but I own a select few, but I do watch it as it is what dominates the blowers. Wondering if the Nasdaq ends up in the red sometime today?

APLD seems to be doing well, but they have earnings report this week on the 7th after hours.
NVDA dropping some news but hasn't really moved on it yet.

Quantum stocks seem to be holding their own lately.

 

[FireFoley]

APLD seems to be doing well, but they have earnings report this week on the 7th after hours.
NVDA dropping some news but hasn't really moved on it yet.

Quantum stocks seem to be holding their own lately.

I was talking about the 10 or so that actually move the index like MSFT, AVGO, NVDA, ORCL, AMD, AAPL. etc. etc. Those small stocks do not affect the index, but it does not mean you cannot make money in them. Even though they could not take that index lower, those large tech stocks have been quiet for a good bit lately.

 

[URGatorBait]

I was talking about the 10 or so that actually move the index like MSFT, AVGO, NVDA, ORCL, AMD, AAPL. etc. etc. Those small stocks do not affect the index, but it does not mean you cannot make money in them. Even though they could not take that index lower, those large tech stocks have been quiet for a good bit lately.

Okay yes I agree.
I read your post as being the popular texh people have been in over last 6 months to year, rather than just the biggest boys.

They definitely have all pulled back.
I'm still mad at myself about AMD. I was looking at it when it was still in double digits and just personally never liked AMD when it came to computer products so just overlooked it.

 

[LoyalGatorFan]

I had my financial advisor put a few thousand dollars worth of my portfolio into gold and silver as they have been skyrocketing especially silver…haven’t bought physical coins lately and haven’t added to my very low crypto wallet either…I believe Trump signed an EO where starting next month we can move our 401k money into gold, silver, and other commodities rather than just mutual funds

 

[FireFoley]

I am not a legal scholar but my inclination is neither of these are legal. Say what you will about Prez Tweeter, whether you like or do niot like the stuff he does or tries to do, the SOB is always trying to do something, LOL

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/07/trump-housing-affordability.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/07/trump-dividends-stock-buybacks-defense-companies.html

 

[Concrete Helmet]

I am not a legal scholar but my inclination is neither of these are legal. Say what you will about Prez Tweeter, whether you like or do niot like the stuff he does or tries to do, the SOB is always trying to do something, LOL

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/07/trump-housing-affordability.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/07/trump-dividends-stock-buybacks-defense-companies.html

Hey I meant to ask you if you had a lead on any tax sale loss bargain bin recommendations? At the prices of everything else I'm not willing to do more than add a few shares here and there on down days. Everything looks really expensive right now....
Normally we have a pretty good pullback in January if memory serves me correctly?

 

[FireFoley]

Hey I meant to ask you if you had a lead on any tax sale loss bargain bin recommendations? At the prices of everything else I'm not willing to do more than add a few shares here and there on down days. Everything looks really expensive right now....
Normally we have a pretty good pullback in January if memory serves me correctly?

I really do not as usually you have a rally in Jan overall due to 401K, bonuses etc going into the market, often called the January Effect, but I never played that game. i think you are already seeing the selling in some of the big winners so far this month so those huge gains have 15 months to pay the taxes. Stuff like APP, VST, GEV, etc etc etc. As for stuff they sold off for tax losses at the end of the year I think it was subtle like maybe some consumer packaging stocks like Kraft or PG etc. No growth type companies that people were using for tax losses. On my post from yesterday, I normally do not play this game, but even I bought these defense stocks on the close yesterday and will be selling them this morning. I was buying them to hold on that silly notion of not buying back stock or paying Divs. Then after the close Tweeter says wants to increase defense budget by zillions and stocks exploded after hours. So I got lucky and will exit gracefully, pay the taxes and move on to something else.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

I don't think I've ever been this conflicted when it comes to buying...there's stuff I like but I feel there might be 10-20% better prices on everything....maybe I was thinking of February when we usually have a decent meltdown....or maybe I'm suffering paralysis by analysis.

 

[URGatorBait]

maybe I'm suffering paralysis by analysis.

 

[FireFoley]

I don't think I've ever been this conflicted when it comes to buying...there's stuff I like but I feel there might be 10-20% better prices on everything....maybe I was thinking of February when we usually have a decent meltdown....or maybe I'm suffering paralysis by analysis.

I am always conflicted in the financial markets. I think that is human nature when money is at risk. But what I have learned is things always go farther (both ways) than you think and it is why I am patient and I piece in. As you probably figured I am more geared towards old school stuff, but I do hold a good bit of tech (but few to none of the non money makers) to balance out my holdings, plus these tech companies are the big money makers. However I have had a good run lately with stocks like MRK (up 30 straight points) ROK and EMR (industrial names), Fed Ex, etc. Just like I mentioned i sold a bit of MO in the mid 60's and now that stock is down 10 bux from there, and the selling I am doing is to raise cash for what you are talking about. There appears to be some type of rotation going on and these old fashioned stocks can have runs also, just not the speed or level of the high flyers. But it appears there is some selling in some of the 10 or 20 stocks that always get talked about so there may be more to go. So I will pick at some of those with the money I am raising from these old fashioned stocks. I am not going all tech, but I carry much larger positions in the old fashioned stocks and am well compensated as I wait for their moves. It takes a while but it is worth it when they start getting all these ANAL-ysts upgrades after they are making 52 week highs lol.

 

[Egor's Assistant]

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Homebuilders anyone? Experts projecting 30yr purchase money mortgages likely down to 5.00-5.25% by next fall means Builders will be able to buy rates down to 4.25-4.50....just a thought but might be worth a look.

MSN

 

[Egor's Assistant]

So last year GLD and SLV brought home the bacon. Plus, all those juicy AI stocks of which I own few, if any. Got some energy plays for the build out but tech all seems so overpriced. This seems like BTC's year to shine. Institutional buying has only increased and is accelerating beyond just MSTR. They are not going to stop printing money. The path is locked in.
1.) Gold and Silver will continue to perform well as the multipolar world emerges. GDXJ is a safe index play on junior minors.
2.) Bitcoin and other major infrastructure coins will swell. [That's ETH, SOL, XRP, LINK]. MSTR is still my favorite play in this space. MARA also due for a major price adjustment. COIN and GLXY should have a great year.
3.) Geopolitical uncertainty. Seems ripe for some chaos this year. Expected and unexpected. Might want to hedge your gains in the major index funds.
I like shorting the QQQ's. For example I recently bought the following put-option. QQQ - $600 strike, expiring 3/20/26. Going to keep buying that insurance until these valuation come back down to earth. Buffet sitting on the largest cash pile in history. Just saying.

 

[Egor's Assistant]

Read this today and thought of yous guys.

"In every great technological cycle – from railroads to radio, from mainframes to microchips – the enduring fortunes were made not by those who recognized the breakthrough, but by those who had the patience to own it at the right price. Valuation discipline is what separates an investor from a speculator. Amid the euphoria of the AI boom, it’s also what will separate those who keep their gains from those who merely rent them."

 

[Egor's Assistant]

 

[FireFoley]

Grand Master J's term ends in a few months, but I am confident this particular subpoena is not going to end up where Prez Tweeter hopes, nor is his hopes for the rates that matter. The market is the ultimate decider and it is telling a story, the problem is Tweeter does not like how it reads currently.