Basketball roster analysis, recruiting etc.

[InstiGATOR1]

Andy Hutchins at Alligatorarmy.com does a solid job analyzing the basketball roster and discussing some other issues around the program:

http://www.alligatorarmy.com/2016/5...alex-murphy-recruiting-deng-gak#comment_tease

About the only thing missing is off season speculation of whether the poor FT gang, Hill, Leon, Murphy, Hayes and Egbunu are taking that part of the off season seriously.

 

[MidwestChomp]

I really hope adding Barry will help guys with FTs. So maybe they don't convert to underhand, but he can give them tips nonetheless.

I'm hoping Gak turns into a rim protector. And we all hope Hill picks up where he left off in last season.

 

[t-gator]

Tha

I really hope adding Barry will help guys with FTs. So maybe they don't convert to underhand, but he can give them tips nonetheless.

I'm hoping Gak turns into a rim protector. And we all hope Hill picks up where he left off in last season.

It definitely gives us a chance to put a decent free throw lineup out there at the end of games.

 

[GatorBart]

Sounds like if Murph2 is successful at getting another year, he's likely going to be a graduate transfer. He'd have to walk-on for us at this point, if he decided to stay. I wouldn't mind him sticking around, but I also don't really want him taking PT away from the younger guys. Thus, I hope Gak turns out to be a surprise and shows some flashes this season. Would be nice to have something to entice his brother to come play for us.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

Sounds like if Murph2 is successful at getting another year, he's likely going to be a graduate transfer. He'd have to walk-on for us at this point, if he decided to stay. I wouldn't mind him sticking around, but I also don't really want him taking PT away from the younger guys. Thus, I hope Gak turns out to be a surprise and shows some flashes this season. Would be nice to have something to entice his brother to come play for us.

I want Alex Murphy two hang around too. As of today the forward spots are manned by Robinson and Leon. That counts on Stone playing well enough to contribute or Hayes playing minutes at the 4. I think Hayes can and Stone will, but I know Murphy can play well enough not to hurt UF and prefer more guys who can play to less. That said, I would understand if he opted to be a graduate transfer.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

Tha

It definitely gives us a chance to put a decent free throw lineup out there at the end of games.

It really does not change a thing concerning this. Last year UF could put in a line up of Chiozza 79.7%, Allen 84.6% (slightly better than Barry last year), Finney-Smith 73.3%, Robinson 76.6% and Rimmer 90.0% in the game late or if you do not want Rimmer some other big we would have to use this year. I guess Barry gives UF the opportunity to go small and not play a poor FT shooting center.

 

[MidwestChomp]

It really does not change a thing concerning this. Last year UF could put in a line up of Chiozza 79.7%, Allen 84.6% (slightly better than Barry last year), Finney-Smith 73.3%, Robinson 76.6% and Rimmer 90.0% in the game late or if you do not want Rimmer some other big we would have to use this year. I guess Barry gives UF the opportunity to go small and not play a poor FT shooting center.

I never want to see Rimmer in at the end of a game. If he is in, we have bigger issues than FT shooting.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

I never want to see Rimmer in at the end of a game. If he is in, we have bigger issues than FT shooting.

I am ok with Rimmer in the last minute or so of a game with UF protecting a 8 to 10 point lead. He can grab a rebound. He seems to be a good FT shooter.

I know some around here are irrational about Rimmer. I try to look at players as what they are and what they can contribute. Rimmer can certainly contribute that. Heck if Hayes ends up playing mainly the 4, Rimmer could spell Egbunu enough to be an acceptable backup.

 

[MidwestChomp]

I am ok with Rimmer in the last minute or so of a game with UF protecting a 8 to 10 point lead. He can grab a rebound. He seems to be a good FT shooter.

I know some around here are irrational about Rimmer. I try to look at players as what they are and what they can contribute. Rimmer can certainly contribute that. Heck if Hayes ends up playing mainly the 4, Rimmer could spell Egbunu enough to be an acceptable backup.

You are THE rational one. I give you much credit.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

You are THE rational one. I give you much credit.

Well I hope I am being rational about Rimmer and not rationalizing him. It is hard not to root for a kid who gave up a scholarship at Stanford, came to UF and then had the coach he came to learn under leave.

Basically he had a shot blocked (or maybe goal tended) by a 7 footer late in a half, had the ball go directly to an opposing player who slopped in an three-quarter court shot. Everyone has shots blocked. None of the rest of it has to do with Rimmer. In games like GW where he was over matched by opposing bigs, well Hayes was too. Similarly against Vandy and even UAL, Hayes and Egubunu seemed over matched too. I think all of UF's bigs need to play better post defense next year.

 

[t-gator]

Well I hope I am being rational about Rimmer and not rationalizing him. It is hard not to root for a kid who gave up a scholarship at Stanford, came to UF and then had the coach he came to learn under leave.

Basically he had a shot blocked (or maybe goal tended) by a 7 footer late in a half, had the ball go directly to an opposing player who slopped in an three-quarter court shot. Everyone has shots blocked. None of the rest of it has to do with Rimmer. In games like GW where he was over matched by opposing bigs, well Hayes was too. Similarly against Vandy and even UAL, Hayes and Egubunu seemed over matched too. I think all of UF's bigs need to play better post defense next year.

His shot was blocked by a 6'3" guard dude. Go back and watch the replay.From the looks of Gak's tape, I doubt we see much of rimmer. I've never seen a 6'11" dude blow so many gimmies.

 

[t-gator]

https://m.youtube.com/results?q=vanderbilt half court shot&sm=1

 

[MertzJay26]

I don't dislike the guy, but it is factual that Rimmer is a terrible D1 basketball player. Not trying to be mean, but he does nothing well besides maybe FTs.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

And we all hope Hill picks up where he left off in last season.

Well I did look at Hill's end of the season recently. He certainly played better and more minutes from the start of the SEC tourney on which is 5 games. I think if you go back you can see the beginning of him coming around a bit earlier. In UF's last 9 games Hill never scored less than 8 points and his averages were:

Last 9 games: 26.7 min, 13.1 points, 3.9 assists and 2.4 turnovers shooting 50% inside the arc, 42.9% outside the arc and 53.5% from the FT line.

Those 9 games were Vandy, at LSU, UK, at UMo, UAR (N), aTm (N), at UNF, at Ohio St, at GW so the level of competition seems pretty much the UF norm to me.

Really the big jump in his numbers the last 5 games was at least in part due to his minutes jumping from around 22 minutes a game to about 30 minutes a game those last 5. If you take the last 9 games and adjust his numbers to what they would average if he had played exactly 30 minutes in each of those games, you get adjusted averages of:
Last 9 games adjust to 30 min per game: 14.8 points 4.3 assists 2.8 turnovers

All the shooting stats stay the same, as we are assuming constant play with the extra minutes. BTW, Hill actually averaged exactly 4 FTs those last 9 games and thus by shooting 53.5% from the FT line rather than 75% costs himself .9 points per game off his scoring average.

So if the last quarter of the season was a break out moment for Hill, then I would expect him to score between 13 to 15 or so points per game this season with a decent turnover to assist ratio playing about 30 minutes per game. His 42.9% (9 of 21) from the arc those last 9 games means in the first 27 games last year Hill was 23.2% from the arc. As we have all known, if Hill is a slight threat from the arc, the rest of his offense, driving and dishing become more effective. So to me the key is for Hill to remain a judicious shooter from the arc and to improve his FT shooting. Improved FT shooting will also help the rest of his offensive game.

 

[MidwestChomp]

Well I did look at Hill's end of the season recently. He certainly played better and more minutes from the start of the SEC tourney on which is 5 games. I think if you go back you can see the beginning of him coming around a bit earlier. In UF's last 9 games Hill never scored less than 8 points and his averages were:

Last 9 games: 26.7 min, 13.1 points, 3.9 assists and 2.4 turnovers shooting 50% inside the arc, 42.9% outside the arc and 53.5% from the FT line.

Those 9 games were Vandy, at LSU, UK, at UMo, UAR (N), aTm (N), at UNF, at Ohio St, at GW so the level of competition seems pretty much the UF norm to me.

Really the big jump in his numbers the last 5 games was at least in part due to his minutes jumping from around 22 minutes a game to about 30 minutes a game those last 5. If you take the last 9 games and adjust his numbers to what they would average if he had played exactly 30 minutes in each of those games, you get adjusted averages of:
Last 9 games adjust to 30 min per game: 14.8 points 4.3 assists 2.8 turnovers

All the shooting stats stay the same, as we are assuming constant play with the extra minutes. BTW, Hill actually averaged exactly 4 FTs those last 9 games and thus by shooting 53.5% from the FT line rather than 75% costs himself .9 points per game off his scoring average.

So if the last quarter of the season was a break out moment for Hill, then I would expect him to score between 13 to 15 or so points per game this season with a decent turnover to assist ratio playing about 30 minutes per game. His 42.9% (9 of 21) from the arc those last 9 games means in the first 27 games last year Hill was 23.2% from the arc. As we have all known, if Hill is a slight threat from the arc, the rest of his offense, driving and dishing become more effective. So to me the key is for Hill to remain a judicious shooter from the arc and to improve his FT shooting. Improved FT shooting will also help the rest of his offensive game.

Damn, that's a robust analysis.

 

[deuce]

Does UF even have a Basketball Team?

 

[InstiGATOR1]

No one has picked up much on the recruiting parts of the article. Here is Deng Gak's 2016 Blair Academy highlight video:



he has not exactly torn up the EYBL so far this summer:

http://www.d1circuit.com/roster_players/11694060?subseason=

The more I think about it, the more I think Deng Gak would have to worry about being recruited over at Duke and that UF is a much better option for him.

As far as UF goes, I would be more than happy with a class of Alexander, Ballard, D. Gak and the youngest Murphy, though I guess the youngest Murphy's stock is down now. Throw in someone like Nickelberry and I am very happy.

 

[t-gator]

No one has picked up much on the recruiting parts of the article. Here is Deng Gak's 2016 Blair Academy highlight video:



he has not exactly torn up the EYBL so far this summer:

http://www.d1circuit.com/roster_players/11694060?subseason=

The more I think about it, the more I think Deng Gak would have to worry about being recruited over at Duke and that UF is a much better option for him.

As far as UF goes, I would be more than happy with a class of Alexander, Ballard, D. Gak and the youngest Murphy, though I guess the youngest Murphy's stock is down now. Throw in someone like Nickelberry and I am very happy.

I don't think we're even on nickelberry's list anymore. I can't remember but it seemed like he said he had 2 leaders and we weren't one of them. I'm hoping having Gak's brother on campus helps with him. I think I read that their parents still lived out of the country so maybe it'll be easier for them to watch both play. We're off to a pretty good start for the17 class. I'd be happy if we added chaundee Brown and Malik William to the class.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

We're off to a pretty good start for the17 class. I'd be happy if we added chaundee Brown and Malik William to the class.

Yep, the start is pretty nice. There are a number of good SFs in Florida for 2017 and UF needs to get one. I guess C. Brown or Figueroa are prime possibilities for the joining the class and maybe Ballard or one of them is a SF. I do not want to see UF heading toward a three guard progam.

 

[t-gator]

Yep, the start is pretty nice. There are a number of good SFs in Florida for 2017 and UF needs to get one. I guess C. Brown or Figueroa are prime possibilities for the joining the class and maybe Ballard or one of them is a SF. I do not want to see UF heading toward a three guard progam.

I don't necessarily mind 3 guard line ups. We've had a few pretty good ones. I'm all for getting the most talent on the floor.