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Discussion in 'Business, Investing & Finance' started by 78, Oct 3, 2019.
It's about out of gas. redirecting
Good chart, thanx for posting. I have been in the camp that the 10 year was going to make historic lows in yields which is about 1.35%. Since rates and credit markets are what I watch the most, the past few weeks had me rethinking my views, as rates have had a difficult time going lower. So I was wondering if they had finished going down in yield or were they just resting so to speak. Well interestingly today we had a large stock rally (albeit on low volume) but typically with rates so low the 10 and 30 year yield would go up a bit at least a few basis points. Well not only did rates not rise today, the longer end went lower and the 2-10 year spread has narrowed from 16 to about 10. So I am back on the lower rates for longer camp, maybe forever. But your chart shows that if we do reach that so called recession the funds rate will go to zero and the 10 year will have to fall. As you know the 3 month t-bill yield is still well above the 10 year so the curve to still quite inverted.
It will be interesting. But I've past the point of trying to figure out what will happen. For 20 years I've though interest rates couldn't possibly go any lower. Lucky for the most part I don't invest based upon my macroeconomic musings.
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