Follow the shrinking Fed

[78]

It's about out of gas.

redirecting

 

[FireFoley]

Good chart, thanx for posting. I have been in the camp that the 10 year was going to make historic lows in yields which is about 1.35%. Since rates and credit markets are what I watch the most, the past few weeks had me rethinking my views, as rates have had a difficult time going lower. So I was wondering if they had finished going down in yield or were they just resting so to speak. Well interestingly today we had a large stock rally (albeit on low volume) but typically with rates so low the 10 and 30 year yield would go up a bit at least a few basis points. Well not only did rates not rise today, the longer end went lower and the 2-10 year spread has narrowed from 16 to about 10. So I am back on the lower rates for longer camp, maybe forever. But your chart shows that if we do reach that so called recession the funds rate will go to zero and the 10 year will have to fall. As you know the 3 month t-bill yield is still well above the 10 year so the curve to still quite inverted.

 

[78]

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[Politigator]

It will be interesting. But I've past the point of trying to figure out what will happen. For 20 years I've though interest rates couldn't possibly go any lower. Lucky for the most part I don't invest based upon my macroeconomic musings.

 

[GatorCatsi]

 

[GatorCatsi]

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Jesus the DXY at 109 now after a slight retreat a couple weeks ago.....fellas things ain't looking real good in any direction for a while....

 

[FireFoley]

Seems to me now would be a great time to take a trip oversees Crete and treat the wifey for supporting you all these years. That strong dollar will go a long way with the Euro below parity, the Pound sniffing 117 and who know where the yen is it might be 140 if you decide to go to Japan.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Seems to me now would be a great time to take a trip oversees Crete and treat the wifey for supporting you all these years. That strong dollar will go a long way with the Euro below parity, the Pound sniffing 117 and who know where the yen is it might be 140 if you decide to go to Japan.

Too busy doing Helocs....they're like Rabbits multiplying everywhere.....gonna break another record for closing this month.

 

[FireFoley]

Too busy doing Helocs....they're like Rabbits multiplying everywhere.....gonna break another record for closing this month.

When I hear this, it just reinforces my thesis.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

When I hear this, it just reinforces my thesis.

Which is?

 

[FireFoley]

People tapping every source they can get their hands on. M2 shrinking fast and we are in for 10-15 year slow slog economically. But like Jay Powell, I could be wrong, LOL

 

[GatorCatsi]

People tapping every source they can get their hands on. M2 shrinking fast and we are in for 10-15 year slow slog economically. But like Jay Powell, I could be wrong, LOL

But are you "data dependent"?

 

[Concrete Helmet]

People tapping every source they can get their hands on. M2 shrinking fast and we are in for 10-15 year slow slog economically. But like Jay Powell, I could be wrong, LOL

Word is getting out about unemployment rising....all it will take will be one less than spectacular jobs report and another small downtick in inflation and Powell will be forced to pivot(I'm thinking Jan.-Feb)stuff is already starting to crack.

 

[FireFoley]

There is almost 11 months worth of brand new homes built and finished sitting unsold around the country. I am not talking about Florida but I am a macro guy and use anecdotal evidence to predict the future. I am having a situation in another HOT area that is now slowing. An engineer whose business is to go and inspect commercial properties structures, etc. for potential buyers just told me his business has all but dried up. And yes he is in one of the top 3 hot cities in America.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

There is almost 11 months worth of brand new homes built and finished sitting unsold around the country. I am not talking about Florida but I am a macro guy and use anecdotal evidence to predict the future. I am having a situation in another HOT area that is now slowing. An engineer whose business is to go and inspect commercial properties structures, etc. for potential buyers just told me his business has all but dried up. And yes he is in one of the top 3 hot cities in America.

Commercial is dead. I begged my partner to sell the business condo that we own but supposedly there is a tenant ready to sign a lease with some small modifications which we are negotiating.....thank God it's paid off.
With regards to the residential housing scenario again when rates drop millies are smart to know it's better to pay on a $1800 a month mortage than to continue paying more than that for an apartment.....all that said I received an offer on one of my rentals from an investor who is front running a hedge fund and in about an hour we will likely sign a contract for 50K above what I would expect to get from a retail buyer seeing that the house needs 55-60K in rehab. For now at least the fall is not imminent in the housing market....yet.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Uh oh....investor has some double talk in the contract....I already have my redaction marker working....