Hurricane Dorian

[itsgr82bag8r]

Do you actually research or just spout stuff?

Global Warming and Hurricanes – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Relevant to your statement:

“In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. While one of our modeling studies projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, we estimate that such an increase would not be detectable until the latter half of the century, and we still have only low confidence that such an increase will occur in the Atlantic basin, based on an updated survey of subsequent modeling studies by our and other groups. A recent study finds that the observed increase in an Atlantic hurricane rapid intensification metric over 1982-2009 is highly unusual compared to one climate model’s simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, and is consistent in sign with that model’s expected long-term response to anthropogenic forcing. These climate change detection results for rapid intensification metrics are suggestive but not definitive, and more research is needed for more confident conclusions.

Therefore, we conclude that it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. (“Detectable” here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.) However, human activity may have already caused some some changes that are not yet confidently detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or due to limitations in modeling and physical understanding (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate, uncertainties in simulation of Atlantic multidecadal variability).”

TL ; DR version - it’s premature to conclude anything about mankind’s influence on tropical storms or intensity but it’s possible a slight change may have occurred. The study goes on to state that all current forecasts are model based.

Additionally...

Are Category 4 and 5 hurricanes increasing in number? | Weather Underground

Summary points from the article:

“1. Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.

2. No individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change.

3. The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.

4. Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades, leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends.

5. There is an observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions whose causes, whether natural, anthropogenic or a combination, are currently being debated. This variability makes detecting any long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity difficult.

6. It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone peak wind-speed and rainfall will occur if the climate continues to warm. Model studies and theory project a 3-5% increase in wind-speed per degree Celsius increase of tropical sea surface temperatures.

7. There is an inconsistency between the small changes in wind-speed projected by theory and modeling versus large changes reported by some observational studies.

8. Although recent climate model simulations project a decrease or no change in global tropical cyclone numbers in a warmer climate, there is low confidence in this projection. In addition, it is unknown how tropical cyclone tracks or areas of impact will change in the future.

9. Large regional variations exist in methods used to monitor tropical cyclones. Also, most regions have no measurements by instrumented aircraft. These significant limitations will continue to make detection of trends difficult.

10. If the projected rise in sea level due to global warming occurs, then the vulnerability to tropical cyclone storm surge flooding would increase.”

Hopefully you learned something today.

Highly unlikely.

 

[Zambo]

Just wanted to revisit this.

Revisit what exactly? Your feelings? See SeaBee's post above. Or visit the NHC, look at the data, and point out where I'm wrong.

 

[Pablos Tunnel]

Hurricane Dorian has been upgraded to Ominous.

Yep she is real bytch

 

[Durty South Swamp]

Blowing like a 10 dollar whore on 2 dollar Tuesday

 

[williston_gator]

I can barely get internet at my house, but apparently the Bahamas can stream a cat 5 hurricane live and not lose it.

 

[Durty South Swamp]

I can barely get internet at my house, but apparently the Bahamas can stream a cat 5 hurricane live and not lose it.

every cane has these live streams. It's typically from weather chasers or major news affiliates onsite. They have special gear and likely dedicated sat bandwidth that gives no fcks about a storm.

 

[Durty South Swamp]

So are the Bahamas now in shambles???

 

[aka]

https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0Z/AMX_loop.gif

 

[soflagator]

So are the Bahamas now in shambles???

They still wouldn’t trade places with Willie Taggert right now.

 

[aka]

Whoever put up that camera is probably hoping that house across the way blows over...for effect.

 

[itsgr82bag8r]

 

[OllieGator]

Wish they had a cam view of the coast line

 

[Durty South Swamp]

Wish they had a cam view of the coast line

there really isn't one right now. Storm surge is 20+ feet. Islands not much over 12-15 ft.

 

[OllieGator]

there really isn't one right now. Storm surge is 20+ feet. Islands not much over 12-15 ft.

Understand. Trying to wrap my mind around 168 mph winds

 

[aka]

I have that video live on my desktop, but I had to mute it. The sound was making me crazy.

 

[Gator Fever]

View from within the eye....worst is yet to still hit!

Crazy stuff...

 

[RiverRat]

They still wouldn’t trade places with WiLLLLLLLie Taggert right now.

Willies gone be ok he just needs a little time to work things out, four-five more years should do it.

 

[SeabeeGator]

Highly unlikely.

It’s a lot easier to regurgitate what the mainstream media tells you to think and post your feelings than it is to research the facts for yourself.

And make no mistake, I’m not claiming we aren’t impacting our environment with our activities or that impacts aren’t likely in the future. Just stating the case of the here and now.

 

[GatorFL]

I've lived in my neighborhood for 15 years and sat through plenty of storms. In that time I've seen some neighbors that for whatever reason did not put their shutters up. This storm, 100% of my neighborhood is shuttered. It still needs to turn, if it doesn't it will be ugly.

 

[oxrageous]

I've lived in my neighborhood for 15 years and sat through plenty of storms. In that time I've seen some neighbors that for whatever reason did not put their shutters up. This storm, 100% of my neighborhood is shuttered. It still needs to turn, if it doesn't it will be ugly.

It can't turn if it doesn't move. That monstrosity is just sitting there, returning small islands back into the sea.