- Sep 8, 2014
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Mortgage rates fall below 7% for the first time in months with experts believing more declines to come
The average rate on the 30-year mortgage dropped to 6.95% from 7.03% the week before, according to Freddie Mac.
Mortgage rates
- Thread starter Zambo
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- Aug 23, 2017
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Wait until next year as the election season heats up. Powell, who hates Trump, will cut the Fed rate and let the economy to heat back up just in time for Bidenomics to be proclaimed as "working" as real estate begins to move again.
Mortgage rates fall below 7% for the first time in months with experts believing more declines to come
The average rate on the 30-year mortgage dropped to 6.95% from 7.03% the week before, according to Freddie Mac.finance.yahoo.com
- Sep 8, 2014
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Absolutely - we were discussing this in the investment thread. This is why I'm keeping my money in the market - for now.
- Aug 23, 2017
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This is why it is important for our economy for the alternative candidate (don't want to drag politics into this forum beyond the obvious) to make the differences known now - and not wait until the differences are not so easily blurred. Three years of horribly economics with a reprieve during election season should not lead to four years of more horrible economics...but it can.
- Jul 29, 2014
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If anyone has ever wondered what determines mortgage rates versus bond rates this article does a good job explaining what the yield spread is. Pay attention to the part about the Feds role if you want to know when to dump a load of your dry powder back into the stock market....clue...wait until the Fed starts buying mortgages again...
- Nov 19, 2014
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Good read and yes mortgage rates are more determined by the secondary MBS market. Now whether the FED will be buying mortgages again is the question. They made a huge mistake and have caught a lot of flack for buying mortgages when there was no need for them to do so. There was plenty of appetite from the public and private sector during the KUNG FLU when rates were much lower. Those Clowns just fueled the flames and caused rates to stay artificially low by continuing to buy when the mortgage market was not in distress.
- Jul 29, 2014
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I'm with you in the thought process that they are in no hurry to start buying mortgages again for a while. I think the prudent investor should consider the coming drop from any cuts made this year as more of a dripping effect versus a mad rush. To me this says stick with a a good mixture of more value or higher yielding stocks and keep turning over TBills while they still offer a solid return.
As a side note the jobs report this morning had an interesting tidbit hidden in it. Jobs services(head hunter) lost 29,000 jobs last month and the revision was 71k lower telling me the jobs market is signaling a coming drop off.
- Nov 19, 2014
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The BLS jobs number revisions have been lower for each preceding month for quite a while. I think the lower revisions from the prior months is what has taken the sting out of the quick rise in rates this AM. If you have ever read how they calculate this number with the birth/death model etc. you would scratch your head and realize that it cannot be accurate, hence the large revisions each month.
Edit: Rates went much lower after very weak ISM services number.
Edit: Rates went much lower after very weak ISM services number.
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- Jul 29, 2014
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House prices are up 4-5% since January....Yeah, these higher rates are solving the problem....
Anyone with half a brain can tell the exact opposite is what will bring about price stability...
Simple economics people....you can't have a bubble where there is lack of inventory. And to all the people who think they are going to scoop up some deals due to foreclosures....it ain't happening because they are already spoken for according to 3 lenders that I have spoken with.
Yup the banks are going to do Deed In Lieu and ALREADY have agreements with the "Big Boys" who are going to lap them up to replace bonds in their portfolios....Mom and Pop investors and personal buyers will never even get a chance.
Better drop that 10yr to about 2.5 like in the next 2 months or this will only get worse.
Anyone with half a brain can tell the exact opposite is what will bring about price stability...
Simple economics people....you can't have a bubble where there is lack of inventory. And to all the people who think they are going to scoop up some deals due to foreclosures....it ain't happening because they are already spoken for according to 3 lenders that I have spoken with.
Yup the banks are going to do Deed In Lieu and ALREADY have agreements with the "Big Boys" who are going to lap them up to replace bonds in their portfolios....Mom and Pop investors and personal buyers will never even get a chance.
Better drop that 10yr to about 2.5 like in the next 2 months or this will only get worse.
- Nov 19, 2014
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My county only, house prices up quarter overr quarter and year over year. Condo prices down 7% quarter over quarter and down 30% year over year. Not made up, just the facts. The increase in HOA's due mainly to insurance and reserve builds is driving these condo prices down faster than Crete going to CostCo for more gold.House prices are up 4-5% since January....Yeah, these higher rates are solving the problem....
Anyone with half a brain can tell the exact opposite is what will bring about price stability...
Simple economics people....you can't have a bubble where there is lack of inventory. And to all the people who think they are going to scoop up some deals due to foreclosures....it ain't happening because they are already spoken for according to 3 lenders that I have spoken with.
Yup the banks are going to do Deed In Lieu and ALREADY have agreements with the "Big Boys" who are going to lap them up to replace bonds in their portfolios....Mom and Pop investors and personal buyers will never even get a chance.
Better drop that 10yr to about 2.5 like in the next 2 months or this will only get worse.
- Jul 29, 2014
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You're still not buying though?? I thought ALL houses would be 50% off by now....
Sure you can pick and choose a specific type or area BUT OVERALL homes are still UP 4-5% just since January.....The policy IS creating the problem along with Boomers added wealth since 42% of all homes are currently free and clear...
Inventory movement is the ONLY way out of this mess along with lower rates for builders so they start building again....Trust me this isn't the same world as pre 2020....the rules are completely different.
- Jul 15, 2014
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Anecdotal, but this is what I've been watching locally (and have mentioned a few times now)... it's kinda like 2010-12ish (I think, but you know what I mean when this happened last time), but I've been watching these NEW "zombie developments" of properties designed for 150-700 homes, where they put in the streets and infrastructure, and now, basically no further activity... it's deja vu all over again. Back then, it took almost 10 years for those developments to finally build out and that was WITH low int rates. Hell, I taught 2 of my kids how to drive in "Ashley Plantation" because it was a HUGE zombie development with all the streets, but literally only 10 homes for years. 460+ acres, over 4,000 residents now, not sure how many total houses. But I'm seeing new zombie ones, mainly the one scheduled for 700 homes.
- Jul 29, 2014
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If you noticed homebuilder stocks shot up between Dec. and just a couple of weeks ago...with interest rates this high they are MORE profitable when they're NOT building(cutting expenses)...that's why this will remain a circle jerk until rates go lower.
- Nov 19, 2014
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I think you have to separate the types in this state. I am not picking and choosing. I have met people in my community who have moved purely due to insane HOA's. People who wanted condos are going single family strictly b/c of HOA. I was not trying to cherry pick, it may be a reason why SFH are maintaining as well as lack of inventory. And I too am seeing a few projects that seem to be taking longer and longer to complete like Deet noted.
- Nov 19, 2014
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Exactly similar to big oil. It is more profitable to buy back your own shares or increase dividends than it is to overpay for land or drill new well.s. Call it finding religion or financial engineering, but it is a money maker.
- Jul 15, 2014
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Personal "Tale of 2 Sellers" in my condo building (and there is ZERO movement in my building relatively speaking... people just don't sell, it's a great property):
- Seller #1 is the Broker handling my sale (and Son #1 is good friends with him from time at the condo... guy tried to hire Son #1 about 2 years ago, said he was born for high end real estate plus his analytics stuff). He's by far and away the top team in the area for high end, waterfront property. He was living in one of the sky home units on the second from top floor (top floor is a couple of penthouses). He sold 12-18 months ago to go live in a waterfront in P'cola.
- Seller #2 is me with a 3/3. We ran it as an investment/rental and blocked off dates we wanted (like Blue Angels on the beach weekend
- For reference, there are just under 100 units total, floors 4-18 have a 4/4 on each end, and 4 3/3s in between, the top couple of floors have the sky homes/PHs. HOA fee is based on sq footage.
- The property is very well run/managed, and HOA fees were LOW relatively speaking and remained fairly "constant" for years. Then, between the Miami condo disaster and hurricanes (and only Sally hit us, but it did cause pretty serious damage to building coating and some other stuff), HOA fees have JUMPED a lot each year over the last 3 or so years (mainly due to insurance on the building, not because of deferred maintenance. Building was built in 2007).
- Seller #1: The day he sold, I had always wanted to know his "why now?" But never got around to it, because the decision to sell has been gnawing me for 2+ years. As part of my sale (unlisted), I asked him what his "why nows?" were. He sold for three reasons: 1) HOA fee rise for his sky home, 2) how much more will the market rise, 3) due for a real hurricane smack like Ivan in 2004.
- Seller #2: I told him that my order as an owner/investor (not resident) was 2, 3, 1
- Jul 15, 2014
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Beach Club... but as you probably know, same people involved in both properties.
And Portofino is another perfect example of BOTH real estate/interest rate "crises"... Portofino was originally scheduled (and permitted for to this day) either 6 or 7 towers (there are only 4) and a full on convention center. The 2010 bust killed everything but the 4 towers they built. Then, I think it was just pre-Covid (or right at Covid), they started taking deposits on units for another 2 of the towers... I have no idea what the status is on that, but I think they stopped it when rates started rising.
Beach Club is probably hands down the best property to own in the entire panhandle if you ask me, for a multitude of reasons and why there is a premium baked into the price.
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- Jul 29, 2014
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Ok so here's the real housing market data...not some quote from a headline...True SFH data that is.
