Perhaps, but to me people will be stretched extra thin no matter how long in lasts. I have heard thoughts this could be the start of a 30 year upswing in rates. We are coming out of a 40 year downswing? and added CC debt, etc etc. Locally maybe picking up.
Nationally I doubt it.
I could be wrong here because I know just like banks balance sheets have different maturities so does the FED's but it is a hot topic even amongst the dopes in congress that even holding this rate where it is will add 2.2 trillion to debt(service) within the next few months.
Couple that with corporate refinancing which begins in mass starting in 2024-2025 and you have something that is unsustainable not only for housing but commercial RE, stocks and bonds.....something is going to give and it won't help the existing regimes cause one bit going into an election year despite their lies and having their people manipulate the numbers(check the employment revisions 3 months after they come out along with the GDP revisions).....on the corporate side remember the Trump tax cuts end in 2024 I believe.
Between the political pressure, common sense and corporate whining after their profit margins go to nil or worse(look at the R2000) there is ZERO chance rates won't start to unwind over the next 12 months.
Due to most residential RE holders being locked in to 3.5-4.0% mortgages as well as 40% owning outright, and the lack of overall inventory it's causing prices will hold up better than that of stocks and most other investments.......BUT now that prospective buyers AND sellers have seen the 8 handle 6 and below will be just too much of a dangling carrot, trust me.
One thing I've learned from being in the business is people have short memories and cannot control their urges very well.
