Now that were officially the Communist States of America

Not by that Bilbo Baggins place.

 

Why do people always seem to want to go there? I'm like, "Fuk it, I'll go find normal food in Shirlington."

 

We live about 1.2 miles from Shirlington - it's a little too far to walk, but it's the closest "nice" dining we have. We go there often (the Thai place is great, probably my favorite Thai I've ever had). But yeah....there's some ghetto dining near this area!

 

I've worked with some people in some of the offices across the street from Bilbo Baggins, and ate a lot in Shillington because a friend had his company in the Gateway building.

 

Watch what Joe's stimulus statement does tomorrow... that'll be a good short term indicator, but any debt = more up.

 

Carlyle was my favorite in Shirlington. You could even get a house made dog bone to take home. Not sure what they put in it, but my dog would absolutely lose his mind.

 

New jobs number out. "The economy" (i.e., NOT "the market") is an absolute dumpster fire, period. And yet, "the markets" ALL set to open higher.

I am 100000000% with you on "the economy." However, don't make the mistake of thinking that has one iota of anything to do with "the markets" anymore. It simply doesn't. Debt, debt, debt... fuels "the markets," "the economy" does not.

 

It's like free money. "Everybody" is making money in this market. The issue is...when will it crash? As others have said, the new administration will do everything they can to keep it propped up so they can say, "see, our policies work!". But we all know there's going to be a day of reckoning. I'm trying to keep enough cash on the side to dive back in after a crash, but I want to also make a little bit while it's running up. There's a fine line, as they say....

 

What if it’s not the market that will crash first, but rather the dollar hyperinflating into oblivion?

 

I don't have a crystal ball, so I can't answer that. The dollar is already falling behind the Euro (it's at 1.21, last time I went to Europe (2015) it was $1.05).

 

Market did just fine with Obama's tax increases, which kind of proves the point, it's about debt, not the economy. The tax increases are just to kill off even more of the middle class and small business, get it right!

 

Detroit's point is a great one... Pull out as much as you can at low fixed rates and invest it at a higher return (it needs to beat the loan interest after taxes). You only need a 3-5% return depending on the tax rate for the investment and the mortgage rate.

But where do you get a low risk 3-5% return right now? Equities on average are now very expensive relative to earnings. If you bought an index fund back in the late 90s it would have taken decades to get to a 5% annualized return.

Rates on bonds are dismal and if interest rates do go up they'll lose their value.

Real estate is also expensive when you look at price to rent ratios. Not quite as expensive as equities, but still expensive. If you own rental property that is financed, your return on equity erodes as you pay off the loan. Even if you refinance to take money out, your return shrinks as price to rent increases. So it might make sense to sell now.


Of course even if equities, bonds and real estate don't look particularly attractive right now on average as asset classes, there are certainly opportunities within each class to make money if you are comfortable with the risk.

But what are those opportunities? I think that's what concrete is really asking in this thread. I'm interested in everyone's thoughts on that as well.