Precious Metals

Discussion in 'Business, Investing & Finance' started by UFHealthGator, Aug 11, 2021.

  1. UFHealthGator

    UFHealthGator Well-Known Member
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    As a "older" millennial, I have largely been investing in broad index funds in the stock market, real estate and more recently crypto currency. I have a decent amount of cash left inside a roth IRA and I have physical gold / physical silver available for purchase at my broker.

    I was always thinking of putting a small amount of my portfolio into precious metals, gold and silver. Their prices seem to have come down some.

    I am looking at Silver, its ATH was nearly $50 in the 70s and now it is trading for half that amount. Wtf. That is horrific taking into account inflation. Gold does not seem to be a whole lot better.

    I would like to have them as a hedge against a market selloff and inflation, but Silver has been horrific against inflation, and Gold is not a whole lot better. What am I missing here?

    Don't need financial advice. Just need a boomer to explain the bullish case for precious metals. The minimum return I should expect from any investment is at the very least keep up with inflation.
     
    #1 UFHealthGator, Aug 11, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2021
  2. bradgator2

    bradgator2 Rioting
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    I basically asked the same thing when this finance section got started. Pretty good thread that may answer your quesion:

    Gold/Silver
     
    • UFHealthGator

      UFHealthGator Well-Known Member
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      Thanks. Pretty much confirms that over hundreds of years they failed to keep up with inflation. Thats just crazy to be honest.
       
    • bradgator2

      bradgator2 Rioting
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      I think the most logical post is Detroit's post 29. It's still hard to wrap my head around.
       
      • Concrete Helmet

        Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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        If your Great Grandfather set aside $1,000for you in 1934 what would you be able to buy with it right now? It wouldn't even pay 1 month's rent.....If your Great Grandfather set aside $1,000 in gold for you at the same time it would be worth $84,000....let that soak in. Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 since 2000 and I believe longer than that but I would have to confirm....Gold will also hit a minimum of 3,000-3,500 before Joe Biden leaves office.
         
        • Concrete Helmet

          Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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          How many dollar bills did it take to buy an ounce of gold in 2000?....about 300....at this moment it would take 1740 of them....Gold never changed. It has and will always be the number 1 LONG TERM asset against inflation. BUT if you really want to take full advantage of gold while doubling your earnings from it you need to also buy the miners when the price is down like right now and swing trade it while holding your physical...never sell your physical only your paper...
           
        • FireFoley

          FireFoley Senior Member
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          I am not making any recommendations, but why would you put precious metals in a Roth ACCT.? Or did I misread? Depending on the value, the ROTH is where you go for the gusto as anything gained is tax free. Just ask Peter Thiel.

          As far as gold, sliver etc., the new peeps just don;t give a shyt about that stuff. They only care about cyber stuff.
           
          • UFHealthGator

            UFHealthGator Well-Known Member
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            Thats a good question. I moved my Roth IRA to a crypto broker that also offers "physical" gold and silver inside. I was not planning on it because I started accumulating / dollar cost averaging crypto when Bitcoin crashed 60% in May. It was really ideal time to accumulate. Unfortunately that bear market lasted only 3 months and I was planning on accumulating for 6 months.

            That left me with roughly 35% of my Roth IRA currently in cash. I see Gold and Silver is down quite a bit and was tempted to invest. I just hate keeping cash in a Roth IRA.

            I could also keep the cash until the next crypto crash. But it is very unpredictable how that might play out. We could go to 150k bitcoin and crash down to 60k, which would still be much higher than where we are now.

            Either way. Might just sit on this cash until the next dip in crypto.
             
          • Concrete Helmet

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          • UFHealthGator

            UFHealthGator Well-Known Member
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            I guess we can all pick a point in time that makes any asset's current price look good. But this paragraph struck me:

            ...a dollar invested in bonds in 1801 would be worth nearly a thousand dollars by 1998, a dollar invested in stocks that same year would be worth more than half a million dollars. All this is in real terms, taking inflation into account. Meanwhile, a dollar invested in gold in 1801 would by 1998, be worth just 78 cents. The phrase, “as good as gold” can be misleading as the phrase “money in the bank”, when talking about the long run.
             
          • UFHealthGator

            UFHealthGator Well-Known Member
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            What is the Y axis for the S&P 500?
             
          • FireFoley

            FireFoley Senior Member
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            Like I said I am not in the advice giving business, but if you have a view that some crypto is going to fly, then that sounds perfect for a Roth. Using gold and Silver as hedges is better for a regular brokerage account. I understand the concept of waiting for downturns, but since I don;t do crypto I have no opinion. But if you think the sky is the limit, entry becomes less important. Personally I always keep lots of cash handy not waiting for a downturn in total per se, but I am constantly scouring nooks and crannys in stocks/bonds, etc, to put it to use. My view is when I am all in, that will be when the bottom falls out, I am not a believer in market timing, but I am a believer in timing my purchases and sales.
             
            • Concrete Helmet

              Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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              Look at the chart I posted above for 2 reasons. One it is obvious gold is the ultimate hedge against inflation. Two when one is down the other is either on the rise or nearing it's top. Gold is on the way down right now which tells me stocks will follow in the next year. I will keep buying in small amounts like you do with crypto. Would it really hurt to have 5% maybe even 10% in your Roth dedicated to metals? BTW if you want to see a crypto like run watch the miners when gold takes a turn....:eek3:
               
              • UFHealthGator

                UFHealthGator Well-Known Member
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                Agreed. Not requesting advice. Just wanted a run down of the bullish case for Gold/ Silver.
                 
              • UFHealthGator

                UFHealthGator Well-Known Member
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                Great chart and good points. Need to study up on this subject because it seems like a good entry point after a decade plus stock market bull run.
                 
              • Concrete Helmet

                Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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                Keep an eye out on the miners....I never believed in metals around the 2008-2011 Bull run. Wished I had, my friend cashed $400k in miners and some of his physical but still holds quite a bit til this day. As a side note I will admit I literally kicked the livin sh!t out of my desk earlier this week when I saw the drop in Silver and sold half of my paper silver.
                 
                • BMF

                  BMF Bad Mother....
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                  I've been adding SLV every time it dips 2-3%. I'm down about 10% overall, which sucks. But if it makes any sort of run, I think I'll be in good shape.
                   
                  • Gator By Marriage

                    Gator By Marriage A convert to Gatorism
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                    While Mrs G and I both have Roths, I have always worried that it was a fool's bet: Guessing today what a future Congress might do. While I certainly admire the Peter Thiel's of this world who outsmart the politicians and avoid taxes, I can't help but believe it only enrages them and inspires them to come up with a way to tax it that in the end, of course, the Peter Thiels will again avoid, but I'll get ensnared. Yeah, yeah, I know: I'm a wee bit cynical.
                     
                  • UFHealthGator

                    UFHealthGator Well-Known Member
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                    The way I see it is that it still beats the living crap out of my regular taxable account, where the annual 12k for myself and spouse would have gone any way. I already max out my 401k and 457b, and have a pension attached to employment. I will keep stashing my Roth IRA while I can. Technically I am not even supposed to be eligible for a Roth IRA due to exceeding income limits, but thanks to legal backdoor Roth IRA that is a non issue. I do expect them to close the backdoor roth IRA eventually.
                     
                    • Concrete Helmet

                      Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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                      I own Aberdeen Silver Trust which is priced at a dollar per share above spot...I can only say I wished I only paid a dollar per coin premium on all the silver eagle, maple leaf's and Krugerrands I bought over the last 18 months....oh well at least when I die the kids and grand kids will have the fun of digging all that sh!t up....:lol2:
                       

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