The "never punt" philosophy

[Instigator]

HBO Sports ran a segment on a high school coach who very rarely punts the ball. He had all sorts of statistics that showed the risk vs reward of "giving up possessions" favored going for it on 4th down, no matter the field position. He also kicks onside kicks most of the time using wild formations. It was a very interesting segment and the bottom line was that he is a winning coach and several NFL teams have contacted him to learn his strategies. Professional statisticians even backed up his philosophy

While I don't think his philosophy applied to the same extreme could work in the SEC, and the numbers don't consider human emotion/momentum, I do think we could be much more aggressive with 4th down attempts. Not only does it make sense to try for points whenever possible, it gives the offense a much needed infusion of confidence. In watching the LSU game replay from last year, Muschamp had 2 opportunities to go for it on the opponents side of the field and went with the safe option (shocking, I know). It was sickening even though you felt that we had little chance of getting the needed yards with our junk offense.

I hope Mac will be much more aggressive, even if it means bad field position. I just don't know if all gator fans have the stomach for such risk? Has anyone seen his tendencies on 4th downs from CSU?

Go Gators!


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[NVGator]

He tends to go the normal route on 4th down.

Have ve you considered an avatar yet?

 

[GatorUrf10]

My favorite coach of all time would punt on 3rd down... I like an aggressive strategy. I think Meyer won a lot of games he maybe wouldn't have because of blocked punts/fake punts.

Have you considered two avatars yet?

 

[TN G8tr]

Muschamp lived to punt.

 

[NavetG8r]

Interesting post. Even more interesting that you've been a member for a year, have posted 6 times, and still don't have an avatar. Ox is slacking.:headshake:

 

[Instigator]

Just to make everyone feel better, I'll add an avatar as soon as I figure out how to do so on my iPad and this tapatalk app....... I considered at least 3 options


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[Instigator]

Did some research from the 2014 season....

Gators converted 8 of 15 4th down attempts - 53% success rate

CSU converted 5 of 14 4th down attempts - 35% success rate

Not much indicating Mac will be any more aggressive on 4th based on that.

But they converted 48% of 3rd downs to the Gators 36% --- optimally we don't have too many 4th downs


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[Will Muschamp]

I find this thread disturbing.

 

[Will Muschamp]

Did some research from the 2014 season....

Gators converted 8 of 15 4th down attempts - 53% success rate

CSU converted 5 of 14 4th down attempts - 35% success rate

Not much indicating Mac will be any more aggressive on 4th based on that.

Do you miss me, yet?

 

[Gator87]

Hal Mumme did this while he was at Kentucky during the late 90" s. I remember one game against us he continually went for it on 4th down no matter where he was on the field.

 

[MissouriGator]

Nice to see you back Instigator.

 

[Bernardo de la Paz]

Just to make everyone feel better, I'll add an avatar as soon as I figure out how to do so on my iPad and this tapatalk app....... I considered at least 3 options


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[Okeechobee Joe]

"Fourth and Smart" if it works. "Fourth and Dumb" if it doesn't.

 

[Gator87]

Do you miss me, yet?

No, not really, was really hoping you came down with some sort of incurable disease that affected your midline.

 

[Okeechobee Joe]

No, not really, was really hoping you came down with some sort of incurable disease that affected your midline.

It's called dining out when you're over forty.

 

[GatorJ]

Statistics (depending on atmosphere, momentum, defensive effectiveness, and field conditions) probably favor going for it if beyond your own 45.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

I think I saw this story quite a few years ago, but yes it almost seems foolproof.
Remember the LSU game a few years back during the Urbs regime? The Mad Hatter went 5 for 5 on 4th down and won.

I'd like to hear the arguments for why it won't work in the SEC though.

 

[lagator]

I think I saw this story quite a few years ago, but yes it almost seems foolproof.
Remember the LSU game a few years back during the Urbs regime? The Mad Hatter went 5 for 5 on 4th down and won.

I'd like to hear the arguments for why it won't work in the SEC though.

SOS used to go for it on 4th at a much higher percentage than the other SEC coaches during his Florida reign. He didn't need any statistics other than saying something like "if we use 4 downs while the opponent only uses 3 that's a pretty big advantage for our offense".

 

[Okeechobee Joe]

Never punting on 4th down is dumb. It needs no explanation. It is call "football" with the emphasis on "foot".

 

[ThreatMatrix]

SOS used to go for it on 4th at a much higher percentage than the other SEC coaches during his Florida reign. He didn't need any statistics other than saying something like "if we use 4 downs while the opponent only uses 3 that's a pretty big advantage for our offense".

Steve seemed to have 6th sense about when things would work. Plus, he had an extremely high level of personal confidence which carried through to the team.
Meyer, on the other hand would consult a spreadsheet.