- Jun 11, 2014
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Some really interesting points. He points out how bad the TEs were blocking on run plays. Caused plays to get completely blown up.
I don’t agree with his take on Franks’ maturity. He needs to shore it up. But he points out some really encouraging stats on his development.
I’ve pasted some of the article below. You can read the entire piece at:
Feleipe Franks has not regressed, no matter what the media tells you
Gainesville QB Club
Following the Gators game against Miami, the narrative was that Feleipe Franks didn’t play well.
You had ESPN analyst Greg McElroy saying that he has regressed from last season. You had Kirk Herbstreit decrying his off-field behavior (?) on College Gameday. You had fans on Twitter and Facebook arguing about how long of a leash head coach Dan Mullen should have for Franks.
The noise got so loud that Franks’ mother – Ginger Franks – decided to write something on Twitter about how her son was being treated.
Now, you may say that this is what comes with being the Florida QB. After all, when you come to Gainesville and perform, you get lionized like Tim Tebow, Danny Wuerffel and Steve Spurrier. However, when you don’t perform up to expectations, the criticism can be quick, harsh and personal.
That’s what Franks signed up for, right? Perhaps, yes.
But fans and experts alike should probably be sure that Franks played poorly before leveling too much criticism his way.
How to measure QB play
Heading into the 2017 season, Florida offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier was asked what he needed to do to improve the Florida offense. Nussmeier said the following:
“The one area that we have to address is the red area. The red zone. We haven’t been good in both seasons. Need to improve on that. We spent a lot of time working on that and the players are cognizant of it and we’ll continue to improve that.” – Doug Nussmeier, August 2017
This is the kind of answer that anyone who has listened to a coach speak about his team has probably heard. Being good in the red zone and converting on third downs are big areas of emphasis that coaches often point to when discussing where to improve.
The problem is, this thinking is flawed.
Plots of Red Zone Conversion % Rank and Third Down Conversion % Rank versus Points per Game for the 2018 season. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
If you look at the above charts, you can see that there is very little correlation (if at all) between either red zone conversion percentage or third down conversions per game to scoring points. This suggests that converting in the red zone or converting lots of third downs – while useful – are not drivers of effective offenses.
If, however, we look at a couple of other stats, we can find a fairly strong correlation.
Plots of Red Zone Attempts per Game Rank and Yards per Play Rank versus Points per Game for the 2018 season. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
These charts suggest that there is a strong correlation between the number of red zone attempts per game and yards per play gained and scoring points.
I don’t want to undersell this point. The data says that converting third downs and converting in the red zone matters much less than how often you get there. And the way you get there more often is by generating explosive plays (because that increases your yards per play average).
This is the foundation of the Yards above Replacement (YAR) stat that I’ve developed over the past year to try and measure QB performance.
As a refresher, YAR takes a QBs yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt and compares those to the average value of both in FBS. That allows the calculation of whether a QB is better or worse than his peers.
As an example of how to view different values of YAR, I want to give a few examples from last season.
Explosive plays and Florida’s offense
I get why fans expressed frustration at the way the Florida offense looked against Miami. But we have to look at it through the framework of what makes an offense effective.
Yards per play gained rank, red zone attempts per game rank and defensive yards per play allowed rank for Florida from 2015-2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The above table shows yards per play gained for Florida from 2015-2018. What we see is that the offense did not crack the top-100 in any of the McElwain/Nussmeier regime. It’s not a coincidence that the offense improved under Mullen in 2018 given that the yards per play rank improved to 32nd in 2018.
This increase came – in large part – because of an increase in explosive plays.
Explosive plays for Florida’s offense in the 2017 and 2018 seasons. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Florida created 26 more explosive plays (20+ yards) in 2018 than in 2017. Not only that, but the Gators executed 29 explosive plays in the last four games of the season (6 vs. South Carolina, 8 vs. Idaho, 6 vs. FSU and 9 vs. Michigan).
This is where the Florida offense struggled against the Hurricanes. The Gators only had two explosive plays the entire game, both in the passing game.
But look at that chart up above again. The Gators averaged 2.0 explosive plays through the air and 2.8 explosive plays on the ground during the 2018 season. Franks got them the two explosive plays through the air. What was missing were the big plays on the ground.
The running game requires that everyone do his job. And the Dan Mullen running game requires that the tight ends do a good job blocking for the running backs. Unfortunately, that was an area where the tight ends struggled against Miami.
On this play, tight ends Lucas Krull (#7) and Kyle Pitts (#84) block the same guy (Romeo Finley, #30). That leaves Miami safety Gurvan Hall (#26) free to force Kadarius Toney (#1) back inside to others who are able to make the tackle.
On this play, Pitts (#84) gets blown back into the backfield by Miami defensive lineman Pat Bethel (#93). Bethel makes the tackle when Florida running back Lamical Perine (#2) tries to cut back, right into Bethel.
On this play, Krull (#7) just runs by Miami linebacker Gilbert Frierson (#3). Frierson then runs directly to make the tackle on Florida running back Dameon Pierce (#27). It all happens so fast that Pierce really doesn’t have a chance to avoid the tackle.
This play – in particular – caught my eye because had Frierson been blocked, this was going to be a big gain.
The running woes of Florida’s offense weren’t all due to poor blocking from the tight ends. There were times that Franks should have audibled to a QB run and didn’t. There were times Toney had a hole to gain 2-3 yards but instead danced around and lost a few. There were times that offensive linemen got stuck on combo blocks, allowing linebackers to make tackles at the line of scrimmage.
But regardless of the reason, the fact remains that the running game was why Florida’s offense struggled to be consistent, much more than the passing game.
Grading Franks’ performance
That’s not to say that Feleipe Franks was perfect. He was not.
But the vitriol that has come his way has been surprising to me. For sure, it was frustrating to see the Gators offense stall, and as the trigger man for that offense, Franks is going to face scrutiny. But I don’t see a lot of evidence of the hot take that “he’s regressed to who he was last year.”
In fact, I see the opposite.
This was reflected both in Franks’ QB passer rating and his YAR. His passer rating for the game was 151.6. For frame of reference, that would have ranked 21st in the country for the 2018 season and was significantly better than his 2018 season passer rating overall.
That efficiency was also reflected in his YAR, which comes in for the game at 1.19. Again, that’s better than Jake Fromm last season (0.95).
Indeed, if we look at how things turned out after the first week of College Football, Franks grades out quite well.
QB Yards above Replacement (YAR) for SEC teams after their first game. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Franks ranked third among all SEC QBs in YAR in their first games. There were only seven QBs with a positive YAR. Those teams averaged 38.4 points per game. The fact that Florida only scored 24 is more a function of the turnovers than Franks’ efficiency.
Of course, those turnovers are a problem, and were the reason Miami was still in the game. But let’s look at them one-by-one.
On the first fumble, Franks and Perine messed up the mesh point. I blame Franks for this one. He has control of the ball until he chooses not to, and in this case allowed Perine to pull the ball away from him.
On the second fumble, that one was purely on running back Malik Davis. The pitch was good and Davis didn’t look it in. It also shouldn’t have been a turnover because Davis was down.
On the first interception, Franks read the defense perfectly and delivered the ball high and a little bit late. But Freddie Swain makes that catch eight or nine out of ten times, and even though he tips the ball, it went right to the Miami defender.
The second interception is on Franks. It looks like Florida was trying to run a stop-and-go and Miami covered it. At that point, he just needed to take the sack and let the clock run.
The mesh point fumble is something that Mullen will make sure is fixed moving forward. And of Franks’ 27 throws, 7.4 percent of them turned into interceptions. His career interception percentage is 2.5. I suspect that Franks is going to do a better job of protecting the ball moving forward through the air.
The reason I suspect that is because of how Franks’ YAR has improved in his time at Florida.
Yards above replacement (YAR) for Feleipe Franks tracked game-by-game. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
If you look at Franks’ 2017 season, the only two games he had a positive YAR were against Vanderbilt and against Missouri, two games where he came in to relieve either Luke Del Rio or Malik Zaire. Other than that, every game was below average.
His 2018 season was much more encouraging, though he basically hovered around average for much of the season (not counting Charleston Southern) with particularly poor performances against Georgia and Missouri. But in the final three games of the year (Idaho, FSU and Michigan), Franks’ performance took a major step forward.
And that step forward was also present against Miami, as Franks had a YAR of 1.19.
This is particularly encouraging considering Franks’ splits in 2018. Overall, Franks had a YAR of 0.19 or slightly above average. But against teams that finished in the AP Top-25, Franks had a YAR of -0.54.
So if you believe that Miami will end up as a top-25 team, you should be pretty encouraged that Franks was able to acquit himself so well versus the Hurricanes.
Differences Franks is showing on film
Of course, the numbers don’t mean much if Franks is making the same mistakes on film. Fortunately for Gators fans, I don’t think that is the case.
First, a caveat. Franks still makes mistakes. The interception he threw at the end of the game against the Hurricanes is evidence of that. But what I’m really looking for is progress because the question I’m asking is not whether Franks is perfect, but whether he’s getting better.
And I believe the answer to that is a definitive “yes”. That answer is based both on the statistical improvement he has shown, but also what he’s put on film.
I don’t agree with his take on Franks’ maturity. He needs to shore it up. But he points out some really encouraging stats on his development.
I’ve pasted some of the article below. You can read the entire piece at:
Feleipe Franks has not regressed, no matter what the media tells you
Gainesville QB Club
Following the Gators game against Miami, the narrative was that Feleipe Franks didn’t play well.
You had ESPN analyst Greg McElroy saying that he has regressed from last season. You had Kirk Herbstreit decrying his off-field behavior (?) on College Gameday. You had fans on Twitter and Facebook arguing about how long of a leash head coach Dan Mullen should have for Franks.
The noise got so loud that Franks’ mother – Ginger Franks – decided to write something on Twitter about how her son was being treated.
Now, you may say that this is what comes with being the Florida QB. After all, when you come to Gainesville and perform, you get lionized like Tim Tebow, Danny Wuerffel and Steve Spurrier. However, when you don’t perform up to expectations, the criticism can be quick, harsh and personal.
That’s what Franks signed up for, right? Perhaps, yes.
But fans and experts alike should probably be sure that Franks played poorly before leveling too much criticism his way.
How to measure QB play
Heading into the 2017 season, Florida offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier was asked what he needed to do to improve the Florida offense. Nussmeier said the following:
“The one area that we have to address is the red area. The red zone. We haven’t been good in both seasons. Need to improve on that. We spent a lot of time working on that and the players are cognizant of it and we’ll continue to improve that.” – Doug Nussmeier, August 2017
This is the kind of answer that anyone who has listened to a coach speak about his team has probably heard. Being good in the red zone and converting on third downs are big areas of emphasis that coaches often point to when discussing where to improve.
The problem is, this thinking is flawed.
Plots of Red Zone Conversion % Rank and Third Down Conversion % Rank versus Points per Game for the 2018 season. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
If you look at the above charts, you can see that there is very little correlation (if at all) between either red zone conversion percentage or third down conversions per game to scoring points. This suggests that converting in the red zone or converting lots of third downs – while useful – are not drivers of effective offenses.
If, however, we look at a couple of other stats, we can find a fairly strong correlation.
Plots of Red Zone Attempts per Game Rank and Yards per Play Rank versus Points per Game for the 2018 season. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
These charts suggest that there is a strong correlation between the number of red zone attempts per game and yards per play gained and scoring points.
I don’t want to undersell this point. The data says that converting third downs and converting in the red zone matters much less than how often you get there. And the way you get there more often is by generating explosive plays (because that increases your yards per play average).
This is the foundation of the Yards above Replacement (YAR) stat that I’ve developed over the past year to try and measure QB performance.
As a refresher, YAR takes a QBs yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt and compares those to the average value of both in FBS. That allows the calculation of whether a QB is better or worse than his peers.
As an example of how to view different values of YAR, I want to give a few examples from last season.
- YAR = 0, average QB (Kellen Mond, 0.08)
- YAR = -1, terrible (Ty Storey, -1.04)
- YAR = 1, very good (Jake Fromm, 0.95)
- YAR = 2+, Heisman candidate (Tua Tagovailoa, 3.55)
Explosive plays and Florida’s offense
I get why fans expressed frustration at the way the Florida offense looked against Miami. But we have to look at it through the framework of what makes an offense effective.
Yards per play gained rank, red zone attempts per game rank and defensive yards per play allowed rank for Florida from 2015-2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The above table shows yards per play gained for Florida from 2015-2018. What we see is that the offense did not crack the top-100 in any of the McElwain/Nussmeier regime. It’s not a coincidence that the offense improved under Mullen in 2018 given that the yards per play rank improved to 32nd in 2018.
This increase came – in large part – because of an increase in explosive plays.
Explosive plays for Florida’s offense in the 2017 and 2018 seasons. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Florida created 26 more explosive plays (20+ yards) in 2018 than in 2017. Not only that, but the Gators executed 29 explosive plays in the last four games of the season (6 vs. South Carolina, 8 vs. Idaho, 6 vs. FSU and 9 vs. Michigan).
This is where the Florida offense struggled against the Hurricanes. The Gators only had two explosive plays the entire game, both in the passing game.
But look at that chart up above again. The Gators averaged 2.0 explosive plays through the air and 2.8 explosive plays on the ground during the 2018 season. Franks got them the two explosive plays through the air. What was missing were the big plays on the ground.
The running game requires that everyone do his job. And the Dan Mullen running game requires that the tight ends do a good job blocking for the running backs. Unfortunately, that was an area where the tight ends struggled against Miami.
On this play, tight ends Lucas Krull (#7) and Kyle Pitts (#84) block the same guy (Romeo Finley, #30). That leaves Miami safety Gurvan Hall (#26) free to force Kadarius Toney (#1) back inside to others who are able to make the tackle.
On this play, Pitts (#84) gets blown back into the backfield by Miami defensive lineman Pat Bethel (#93). Bethel makes the tackle when Florida running back Lamical Perine (#2) tries to cut back, right into Bethel.
On this play, Krull (#7) just runs by Miami linebacker Gilbert Frierson (#3). Frierson then runs directly to make the tackle on Florida running back Dameon Pierce (#27). It all happens so fast that Pierce really doesn’t have a chance to avoid the tackle.
This play – in particular – caught my eye because had Frierson been blocked, this was going to be a big gain.
The running woes of Florida’s offense weren’t all due to poor blocking from the tight ends. There were times that Franks should have audibled to a QB run and didn’t. There were times Toney had a hole to gain 2-3 yards but instead danced around and lost a few. There were times that offensive linemen got stuck on combo blocks, allowing linebackers to make tackles at the line of scrimmage.
But regardless of the reason, the fact remains that the running game was why Florida’s offense struggled to be consistent, much more than the passing game.
Grading Franks’ performance
That’s not to say that Feleipe Franks was perfect. He was not.
But the vitriol that has come his way has been surprising to me. For sure, it was frustrating to see the Gators offense stall, and as the trigger man for that offense, Franks is going to face scrutiny. But I don’t see a lot of evidence of the hot take that “he’s regressed to who he was last year.”
In fact, I see the opposite.
This was reflected both in Franks’ QB passer rating and his YAR. His passer rating for the game was 151.6. For frame of reference, that would have ranked 21st in the country for the 2018 season and was significantly better than his 2018 season passer rating overall.
That efficiency was also reflected in his YAR, which comes in for the game at 1.19. Again, that’s better than Jake Fromm last season (0.95).
Indeed, if we look at how things turned out after the first week of College Football, Franks grades out quite well.
QB Yards above Replacement (YAR) for SEC teams after their first game. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Franks ranked third among all SEC QBs in YAR in their first games. There were only seven QBs with a positive YAR. Those teams averaged 38.4 points per game. The fact that Florida only scored 24 is more a function of the turnovers than Franks’ efficiency.
Of course, those turnovers are a problem, and were the reason Miami was still in the game. But let’s look at them one-by-one.
On the first fumble, Franks and Perine messed up the mesh point. I blame Franks for this one. He has control of the ball until he chooses not to, and in this case allowed Perine to pull the ball away from him.
On the second fumble, that one was purely on running back Malik Davis. The pitch was good and Davis didn’t look it in. It also shouldn’t have been a turnover because Davis was down.
On the first interception, Franks read the defense perfectly and delivered the ball high and a little bit late. But Freddie Swain makes that catch eight or nine out of ten times, and even though he tips the ball, it went right to the Miami defender.
The second interception is on Franks. It looks like Florida was trying to run a stop-and-go and Miami covered it. At that point, he just needed to take the sack and let the clock run.
The mesh point fumble is something that Mullen will make sure is fixed moving forward. And of Franks’ 27 throws, 7.4 percent of them turned into interceptions. His career interception percentage is 2.5. I suspect that Franks is going to do a better job of protecting the ball moving forward through the air.
The reason I suspect that is because of how Franks’ YAR has improved in his time at Florida.
Yards above replacement (YAR) for Feleipe Franks tracked game-by-game. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
If you look at Franks’ 2017 season, the only two games he had a positive YAR were against Vanderbilt and against Missouri, two games where he came in to relieve either Luke Del Rio or Malik Zaire. Other than that, every game was below average.
His 2018 season was much more encouraging, though he basically hovered around average for much of the season (not counting Charleston Southern) with particularly poor performances against Georgia and Missouri. But in the final three games of the year (Idaho, FSU and Michigan), Franks’ performance took a major step forward.
And that step forward was also present against Miami, as Franks had a YAR of 1.19.
This is particularly encouraging considering Franks’ splits in 2018. Overall, Franks had a YAR of 0.19 or slightly above average. But against teams that finished in the AP Top-25, Franks had a YAR of -0.54.
So if you believe that Miami will end up as a top-25 team, you should be pretty encouraged that Franks was able to acquit himself so well versus the Hurricanes.
Differences Franks is showing on film
Of course, the numbers don’t mean much if Franks is making the same mistakes on film. Fortunately for Gators fans, I don’t think that is the case.
First, a caveat. Franks still makes mistakes. The interception he threw at the end of the game against the Hurricanes is evidence of that. But what I’m really looking for is progress because the question I’m asking is not whether Franks is perfect, but whether he’s getting better.
And I believe the answer to that is a definitive “yes”. That answer is based both on the statistical improvement he has shown, but also what he’s put on film.
