At this point, 2 of those sure wins (usce and Mizzou) are now in the "toss up" column. So I think it's about a 7 game schedule, with 6 left. Like others have said, it's more than just the record. I think how which games we lose, and how we do it is just as important. Personally, I think we can lose Saturday and still be ok. I'm in the camp that we beat Mizzou. The uga game is huge for recruiting and control in that series. Letting a first year coach retake Jax is something we simply cannot have. Ark is only a bad loss if it's a "last straw" moment, being one of 4-5 total. Otherwise, it's a tricky game that the best teams sometimes lose. There is no excuse for losing to the gamecocks. That one could be a death blow to this staff given the circumstances. Tough to see us winning in Doak unless they really flail down the stretch. As much as we need it from a recruiting standpoint, I don't think his losing that game would be unacceptable considering where the two teams are at, and where our AD allowed them to get. A blowout there, or in any of these games would change my feelings as well.
But I think going 4-2 would still carry some momentum into next year, especially if coupled with a solid bowl performance. Going 3-3 would have him under considerable pressure. Sub .500, and he's coaching for his life next season, likely in vain.