Our chances at the SECCG

[t-gator]

I'm not as confident as alot of you guys about beating sc. We've seen so many blown coverages this year and despite their poor defense they've been slinging it all around the yard. If they get a couple stops and put a few in the end zone a few times, I don't think we'll play too good from behind. They're also playing for bowl eligibility and coming off a bye week.

 

[GatorStud]

:fingertap: So much for the flip a coin thread

 

[Swamp Donkey]

smh at this whole thread.

Yeah, if like every team in front of us lose all their games in November, we could still be the NC!!!!

 

[GatorInKnox]

Yeah, if like every team in front of us lose all their games in November, we could still be the NC!!!!

You're finally being rational.

 

[Jbossgator8]

I just hope we don't end up with another losing record.

 

[williston_gator]

@AlligatorArmy: Math! MT @schadjoe: Florida has a better chance to win the SEC East (19 pct) than Auburn and Ole Miss combined to win West (15 pct). (FPI)

 

[GatorTAG]

Missouri needs to lose all 3 of their remaining games. Ain't gonna happen. Why are you guys even talking about it?

 

[The Original DC]

Missouri needs to lose all 3 of their remaining games. Ain't gonna happen. Why are you guys even talking about it?

No, they need to lose to Tennessee and either Arkansas or TexAM. Not impossible, but I'm focused on beating SC.

 

[Coach9]

Missouri needs to lose all 3 of their remaining games. Ain't gonna happen. Why are you guys even talking about it?

Wrong. Missouri MUST lose to TN and to either Texas A&M or Arkansas.
Combined with Georgia losing to Auburn.
A real possibility

 

[Gator Fever]

Well we play early Saturday and then we can sit back and hope Mizzou and Georgia lose later that day. I really hope Georgia doesn't win because it eliminates us and would probably give them the East as I don't see Missouri winning all 3 of their games.

 

[t-gator]

Who does Missouri have left?

 

[ufgator812]

Who does Missouri have left?

Bing...

 

[t-gator]

They've got to lose their last two? Both of those games could go either way. Assuming we beat sc I don't see us winning the east

 

[GatorTAG]

So they have 1 SEC loss and we have 3. If they lose 2 aren't we tied and they win the head to head tie breaker?

 

[t-gator]

If they lose 2 and Georgia loses 1 there would be a 3 way tie. I don't know who would get the tie breaker

 

[MJMGator]

Does anyone really want to get embarassed in Atlanta?

 

[aka]

Wrong. Missouri MUST lose to TN and to either Texas A&M or Arkansas.
Combined with Georgia losing to Auburn.
A real possibility

This is correct. None of it matters if we don't win.

 

[L-boy]

@AlligatorArmy: Math! MT @schadjoe: Florida has a better chance to win the SEC East (19 pct) than Auburn and Ole Miss combined to win West (15 pct). (FPI)

That kind of makes sense

What is probability of TN beating MO? I'd say 35-40%. We will use 35%. (optimistic scenario= *40%)

What is probability of T&M beating MO? I'd say 60%. (*62.5%)

What is the probability of Ark beating MO? I'd say 15-20%. We will use 15% (*20%)

What is combined probability of either A&M or Ark beating MO - If I remember my statistics, that probability would come to approx 66%. (70% using optimistic assumptions)

So the probability of MO losing to TN and losing one of those other games? 35% * 66% = approx 23% (28% using optimistic assumptions)

Probability of GA losing to Auburn? I'd say 60%. (*65%)

Probability of FL beating SC. I'd say 65%. (*70.0%)

23%*60%*65%= 9% chance of FL winning SEC. That is lower than 19% quoted above.

If I use more optimistic but plausible numbers (above with *)

40% * 70% * 65% * 70% = 13%

Not sure if I did this right, but I come up with between 9-13% probability of UF winning SEC East. 19% seems a little high. I think I have been generous in my probabilities favoring UF above

 

[t-gator]

Not bad little boy

 

[Swamp Donkey]

No, they need to lose to Tennessee and either Arkansas or TexAM. Not impossible, but I'm focused on beating SC.

So, we just need Tinerc to beat the team that beat the pizz out of us.

I can see why you Pumptastics are so excited. It seems pretty likely.