- Oct 5, 2017
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Hey guys, as we are just over two weeks away from kicking off the season, I figured I’d do a series of previews. Yes, some of this is from the podcast (for those that watch or listen) and some is additional information or updated information since things like the open practice, injuries, etc. I also spent more time on PFF looking into premium stats, which in some ways made me feel better and some ways not.
For this edition, it is looking at which position groups I think will be better, about the same or worse and why I believe that. Part of message board fun is the conversation, the discussion, etc. Yes, TLDR, sorry. I had both offense and defense in one post, but it was too long so here is just the offese.
OFFENSE
OL – Worse
I know this is a position some people simply looked at losing 3 ½ starters (I won’t say a full 4 because of the amount of starts and playing time Barber had) and said most of them were Mullen guys so therefore, everything is upgraded. I do not have the same mindset. I am open to being wrong about this and hope they show that I am wrong. Last year, the Gators returned 4 starters from a so-so offensive line in 2021, but plenty of experience and added pre-season All-American Guard O’Cyrus Torrence. They also had Richie Leonard, who had several starts under his belt, and ended up having a surprise with Austin Barber, who was the Gators top graded tackle according to Pro Football Focus and was #22 in the nation as a freshman last season. He was also a freshman All-American
This season we lose a 42-game starter at one tackle with Richard Gouraige, a 2nd Team All-SEC Guard in Ethan White, and a First Team All-American Guard in O’Cyrus Torrence. Barber is more than an adequate replacement for Michael Tarquin (though he is moving to left tackle into Gouraige’s spot). The question comes in the other replacements and depth, where there are young, but inexperienced guys depth. They could all be the next Austin Barber, young guys who play above their lack of experience, but that inexperienced depth is my first concern.
My second concern is some of the replacements of the other three spots.
At RT it looks like Bama transfer Damieon George is taking over. George saw 20 snaps (all against Utah State) for the Crimson Tide in 2022 after falling out of favor due to struggling towards the end of 2021 where he received a 65 grade overall from PFF. Comparatively, Gouraige last year was 70.7, with a run blocking grade similar to George in 2021 (65.7 to 64.8). However, it is the pass protection that has a large gap Gouraige was rated 78.8 while George at Bama was 68.7 in pass protection in 2021 before with a season ending against Auburn 35.9 pass protection grade. For depth, Kam Waites seems to be coming back from injury earlier than schedule, but when he will be fully ready is the question. Also, there is FIU transfer Lyndell Hudson. Hudson last year in graded 60.8 while battling injuries for the Panthers. He was 64.1 in 2021.
One guard spot will be good with Micah Mazzccua coming in as the 33rd rated guard (there is a persistent rumor I heard repeated last week he was the #2 PFF guard in the country) in the country. Mazzccua was an All-Big 12 honorable mention guard last season, but he was rated the #2 guard in the Big 12 according to PFF. He did excellent in run blocking, but his pass blocking was not that good. I wonder if he will do as well against the SEC grind, we know Torrence didn’t miss a beat last year, but not every player is O’Cyrus Torrence. I think that our OL coaches will get more out of him, but I’m not sure if that the height is Torrence’s, especially with the time he’s missed. It is good he is cleared to practice now, but there is a difference between cleared and 100%.
The other starting guard spot is Richie Leonard IV who has starting and back up experience at UF. He has been inconsistent and was not great against LSU in his lone start in 2022. I’m not sure if he can get to White’s 2nd team all-SEC level. If not, and if Mazzccua is a slight downgrade from Torrence, along with the depth questions both here and at tackle, I think we see a worse OL. That doesn’t mean it is dramatically worse, but it also means it isn’t the same level as 2022. Why that matters will be discussed later.
Again, I could be wrong, but we are relying on players to start and potentially some back-ups who are in their first year in the system, some dealing with injuries including those that have kept the best OL from practicing together for much of Spring and Fall so far, some that fell out of favor at their previous schools and youth that leads me to believe that the OL will probably be worse. Though, there are some things schematically (which we will get to) that can help them out.
TE-Better
Outside the loss of Keon Zipperer to injury for the season, the Gators return everyone from last season and more. I believe the second year in the system for everyone and what looked to be an effort to get the ball to tight ends a bit more during the open practice makes me believe we will see better. The biggest reason I think we see the tight ends better this season is RS Freshman Arlis Boardingham who missed a lot of time last season due to injury, but now seems to be generally healthy. As I said in the thread with open practice, he reminds me of a young, raw Kyle Pitts. A tight end who can be a receiving threat and uses his body to gain advantages on the defenders. If he can stay healthy, I believe he will provide a different dynamic to this group than we saw last year. For guys like Zanders and Odom, I think simply a second year with the off-season team and in the system will help them.
WR- Same, Possibly Better
This is one spot I really debated on changing from Push on the podcast to Better here due to watching the open practice. However, it comes down to the same problems I had. I think the room is more talented and has a lot more speed. Douglas made me feel better about him in the practice, and offensively we are trying to scheme certain guys open more than we did last year (Billy said as much). The concerns I have about the OL and if Mertz has time or is able to buy time for these guys to show their stuff and also the concern of experience. There are plenty of speedy guys who never quite work out (though I have no reason to believe the freshmen of Jean, Mizell and Wilson will not). The speed does assist in getting open sooner, meaning hopefully the line would have to block for less time. I think trying to scheme some guys open and throwing screens to Wilson and Pearsall, rather than Henderson, will also help.
If the OL can get Mertz time and the good side of Mertz shows up, these guys will be vastly better than last year’s receiving corps. If we see a lot of the 2 receiver plays, OL isn’t doing well at pass blocking, and/or bad Mertz shows up, these guys won’t reach their full potential and end up about the same.
RB- Better
This is one I did change from Push to Better. Obviously returning ETN and Johnson is a great start. The questions I have about OL and the passing game could impact them. Since I originally said push, it has come out that the RB’s will be better utilized in the passing game (Billy has said as much). This will definitely help. Cam Carroll looks to be a good third back and perhaps more of a bruiser than the other two. ETN is more speed and shiftiness, Johnson mixture of speed and power and Carroll looks to have some power to him, but we saw some other things in the Spring game as well from the Tulane transfer. Webb will be depth, but I don’t think we will see him getting too many carries on downs that matter this season, but you never know. That isn’t a knock on him, but more of a state of the room that I think will be good IF the OL can block for them. There were several games last year our run blocking let us down and our running backs had less than 4 ypc. If these guys can avoid that and get some receptions out of the backfield at a higher rate, this group will be better.
QB- Worse
A lot of my feelings on this comes down to two things, the OL and overall lack of mobility. I think we are trying to do some things schematically that will help and Mertz being able to hit some of these passes that AR struggled with.
The two main narratives for Mertz’s 2022 struggles I see from Gator fans are lots of 3rd & Long throws and the Wisconsin allowed tons of pressure. According to ESPN, AR had 45 throws on 3rd and 8 or longer and Mertz had 50 such throws. According to PFF, Mertz last season was pressured on 31.4% of dropbacks (78th, when using 20% of snaps to filter out a bunch of few snaps players such as running backs throwing a pass on a trick play) and had 24.1% of the pressures attributed to him. Behind last year’s OL, AR was pressured on 37.6% of dropbacks (tied for 21st highest in Nation) and had 19.4% of those pressures attributed to him. This isn’t meant to compare the two in anything other than showing that the numbers aren’t that different regarding pressure % and 3rd and long. Yes, there is some context missing for both such as play calls, formations, shotgun vs. under center (though it should be noted the one in shotgun more was the one pressured more often), etc. The reason I am putting this here is to show that without improved OL pass blocking, we may see the same Graham Mertz, if not worse as the defenses he will face are a step up from the Big 10 West and a harder non-conference schedule. Mertz also does not have the ability to take pressure, pull the ball down and run for 81 yards, 45 yards, etc. for a TD as AR did. He will get some scramble yards, but I think many AR pressures could turn into Mertz sacks due to size and speed differences.
IF the OL does improve on last year’s pressure numbers and we see less 3rd and 8+ throws, Mertz definitely could be better. Mertz has a more talented supporting cast than either he or AR had last year. The question is will he have time to utilize it.
*****************************************************************
This is the part I reference coaching. Last year in the regular season, bowl game, and Spring game, we rarely saw any 0 or 1 step drop routes. That means there weren’t many quick routes called. I don’t buy they simply weren’t called at all because AR couldn’t complete them because there were a lot of plays we ran that he had issues with. I think we would’ve seen more of these routes in the Spring game if that were the case. I only remember two plays with quick routes and one was the second TD after a timeout and lackluster 1st half offense, I’m not saying a send the house/quick slant combo was done to get a score right before half, just saying timing is everything. The point about the 0 or 1 step drop routes is that they punish blitzing. We didn't punish the blitz much in 2022 or get the ball out quickly and if you don't, other teams blitz without worrying about getting beat. That shuts down run lanes and then you get stuck in plenty of 3rd and long situations and/or see the offense sputter. Running these routes and punishing the blitz will take pressure off of the OL.
At the open practice it seemed we were doing more quick, 0 or 1 step drop routes. It also seems that we indeed are showing things that have not been present before like having the running backs run more routes. This is a passing scheme with a lifetime national finish average of 75.5. I think we are seeing some evolution in the passing concepts like we’ve seen evolution from Napier in other facets of the program, but I’ll need to see it in game before I declare anything changed for sure. I think it is like Billy's opinion of the "middle 8", when he was asked about the middle 8 on Stadium & Gale, it seemed he thought we were fine there in 2022. However, I believe in the Gator Nation Football Podcast interview, he mentioned that the middle 8 was something they were working to improve. I like being able to see evolution in thought from Napier like that as opposed to some of the stiff-necked "everything is fine" approach some previous coaches have had. If the OL can do their job, this Offense can be explosive, if not, time to ask questions about two OL coaches.
Overall, I am curious about this offense. As said above, with great OL play, this might be a really good offense. If it isn't, things can go south quickly as there are some great defenses we face and some tough road atmospheres. That's what makes the season so intriguing for me.
For this edition, it is looking at which position groups I think will be better, about the same or worse and why I believe that. Part of message board fun is the conversation, the discussion, etc. Yes, TLDR, sorry. I had both offense and defense in one post, but it was too long so here is just the offese.
OFFENSE
OL – Worse
I know this is a position some people simply looked at losing 3 ½ starters (I won’t say a full 4 because of the amount of starts and playing time Barber had) and said most of them were Mullen guys so therefore, everything is upgraded. I do not have the same mindset. I am open to being wrong about this and hope they show that I am wrong. Last year, the Gators returned 4 starters from a so-so offensive line in 2021, but plenty of experience and added pre-season All-American Guard O’Cyrus Torrence. They also had Richie Leonard, who had several starts under his belt, and ended up having a surprise with Austin Barber, who was the Gators top graded tackle according to Pro Football Focus and was #22 in the nation as a freshman last season. He was also a freshman All-American
This season we lose a 42-game starter at one tackle with Richard Gouraige, a 2nd Team All-SEC Guard in Ethan White, and a First Team All-American Guard in O’Cyrus Torrence. Barber is more than an adequate replacement for Michael Tarquin (though he is moving to left tackle into Gouraige’s spot). The question comes in the other replacements and depth, where there are young, but inexperienced guys depth. They could all be the next Austin Barber, young guys who play above their lack of experience, but that inexperienced depth is my first concern.
My second concern is some of the replacements of the other three spots.
At RT it looks like Bama transfer Damieon George is taking over. George saw 20 snaps (all against Utah State) for the Crimson Tide in 2022 after falling out of favor due to struggling towards the end of 2021 where he received a 65 grade overall from PFF. Comparatively, Gouraige last year was 70.7, with a run blocking grade similar to George in 2021 (65.7 to 64.8). However, it is the pass protection that has a large gap Gouraige was rated 78.8 while George at Bama was 68.7 in pass protection in 2021 before with a season ending against Auburn 35.9 pass protection grade. For depth, Kam Waites seems to be coming back from injury earlier than schedule, but when he will be fully ready is the question. Also, there is FIU transfer Lyndell Hudson. Hudson last year in graded 60.8 while battling injuries for the Panthers. He was 64.1 in 2021.
One guard spot will be good with Micah Mazzccua coming in as the 33rd rated guard (there is a persistent rumor I heard repeated last week he was the #2 PFF guard in the country) in the country. Mazzccua was an All-Big 12 honorable mention guard last season, but he was rated the #2 guard in the Big 12 according to PFF. He did excellent in run blocking, but his pass blocking was not that good. I wonder if he will do as well against the SEC grind, we know Torrence didn’t miss a beat last year, but not every player is O’Cyrus Torrence. I think that our OL coaches will get more out of him, but I’m not sure if that the height is Torrence’s, especially with the time he’s missed. It is good he is cleared to practice now, but there is a difference between cleared and 100%.
The other starting guard spot is Richie Leonard IV who has starting and back up experience at UF. He has been inconsistent and was not great against LSU in his lone start in 2022. I’m not sure if he can get to White’s 2nd team all-SEC level. If not, and if Mazzccua is a slight downgrade from Torrence, along with the depth questions both here and at tackle, I think we see a worse OL. That doesn’t mean it is dramatically worse, but it also means it isn’t the same level as 2022. Why that matters will be discussed later.
Again, I could be wrong, but we are relying on players to start and potentially some back-ups who are in their first year in the system, some dealing with injuries including those that have kept the best OL from practicing together for much of Spring and Fall so far, some that fell out of favor at their previous schools and youth that leads me to believe that the OL will probably be worse. Though, there are some things schematically (which we will get to) that can help them out.
TE-Better
Outside the loss of Keon Zipperer to injury for the season, the Gators return everyone from last season and more. I believe the second year in the system for everyone and what looked to be an effort to get the ball to tight ends a bit more during the open practice makes me believe we will see better. The biggest reason I think we see the tight ends better this season is RS Freshman Arlis Boardingham who missed a lot of time last season due to injury, but now seems to be generally healthy. As I said in the thread with open practice, he reminds me of a young, raw Kyle Pitts. A tight end who can be a receiving threat and uses his body to gain advantages on the defenders. If he can stay healthy, I believe he will provide a different dynamic to this group than we saw last year. For guys like Zanders and Odom, I think simply a second year with the off-season team and in the system will help them.
WR- Same, Possibly Better
This is one spot I really debated on changing from Push on the podcast to Better here due to watching the open practice. However, it comes down to the same problems I had. I think the room is more talented and has a lot more speed. Douglas made me feel better about him in the practice, and offensively we are trying to scheme certain guys open more than we did last year (Billy said as much). The concerns I have about the OL and if Mertz has time or is able to buy time for these guys to show their stuff and also the concern of experience. There are plenty of speedy guys who never quite work out (though I have no reason to believe the freshmen of Jean, Mizell and Wilson will not). The speed does assist in getting open sooner, meaning hopefully the line would have to block for less time. I think trying to scheme some guys open and throwing screens to Wilson and Pearsall, rather than Henderson, will also help.
If the OL can get Mertz time and the good side of Mertz shows up, these guys will be vastly better than last year’s receiving corps. If we see a lot of the 2 receiver plays, OL isn’t doing well at pass blocking, and/or bad Mertz shows up, these guys won’t reach their full potential and end up about the same.
RB- Better
This is one I did change from Push to Better. Obviously returning ETN and Johnson is a great start. The questions I have about OL and the passing game could impact them. Since I originally said push, it has come out that the RB’s will be better utilized in the passing game (Billy has said as much). This will definitely help. Cam Carroll looks to be a good third back and perhaps more of a bruiser than the other two. ETN is more speed and shiftiness, Johnson mixture of speed and power and Carroll looks to have some power to him, but we saw some other things in the Spring game as well from the Tulane transfer. Webb will be depth, but I don’t think we will see him getting too many carries on downs that matter this season, but you never know. That isn’t a knock on him, but more of a state of the room that I think will be good IF the OL can block for them. There were several games last year our run blocking let us down and our running backs had less than 4 ypc. If these guys can avoid that and get some receptions out of the backfield at a higher rate, this group will be better.
QB- Worse
A lot of my feelings on this comes down to two things, the OL and overall lack of mobility. I think we are trying to do some things schematically that will help and Mertz being able to hit some of these passes that AR struggled with.
The two main narratives for Mertz’s 2022 struggles I see from Gator fans are lots of 3rd & Long throws and the Wisconsin allowed tons of pressure. According to ESPN, AR had 45 throws on 3rd and 8 or longer and Mertz had 50 such throws. According to PFF, Mertz last season was pressured on 31.4% of dropbacks (78th, when using 20% of snaps to filter out a bunch of few snaps players such as running backs throwing a pass on a trick play) and had 24.1% of the pressures attributed to him. Behind last year’s OL, AR was pressured on 37.6% of dropbacks (tied for 21st highest in Nation) and had 19.4% of those pressures attributed to him. This isn’t meant to compare the two in anything other than showing that the numbers aren’t that different regarding pressure % and 3rd and long. Yes, there is some context missing for both such as play calls, formations, shotgun vs. under center (though it should be noted the one in shotgun more was the one pressured more often), etc. The reason I am putting this here is to show that without improved OL pass blocking, we may see the same Graham Mertz, if not worse as the defenses he will face are a step up from the Big 10 West and a harder non-conference schedule. Mertz also does not have the ability to take pressure, pull the ball down and run for 81 yards, 45 yards, etc. for a TD as AR did. He will get some scramble yards, but I think many AR pressures could turn into Mertz sacks due to size and speed differences.
IF the OL does improve on last year’s pressure numbers and we see less 3rd and 8+ throws, Mertz definitely could be better. Mertz has a more talented supporting cast than either he or AR had last year. The question is will he have time to utilize it.
*****************************************************************
This is the part I reference coaching. Last year in the regular season, bowl game, and Spring game, we rarely saw any 0 or 1 step drop routes. That means there weren’t many quick routes called. I don’t buy they simply weren’t called at all because AR couldn’t complete them because there were a lot of plays we ran that he had issues with. I think we would’ve seen more of these routes in the Spring game if that were the case. I only remember two plays with quick routes and one was the second TD after a timeout and lackluster 1st half offense, I’m not saying a send the house/quick slant combo was done to get a score right before half, just saying timing is everything. The point about the 0 or 1 step drop routes is that they punish blitzing. We didn't punish the blitz much in 2022 or get the ball out quickly and if you don't, other teams blitz without worrying about getting beat. That shuts down run lanes and then you get stuck in plenty of 3rd and long situations and/or see the offense sputter. Running these routes and punishing the blitz will take pressure off of the OL.
At the open practice it seemed we were doing more quick, 0 or 1 step drop routes. It also seems that we indeed are showing things that have not been present before like having the running backs run more routes. This is a passing scheme with a lifetime national finish average of 75.5. I think we are seeing some evolution in the passing concepts like we’ve seen evolution from Napier in other facets of the program, but I’ll need to see it in game before I declare anything changed for sure. I think it is like Billy's opinion of the "middle 8", when he was asked about the middle 8 on Stadium & Gale, it seemed he thought we were fine there in 2022. However, I believe in the Gator Nation Football Podcast interview, he mentioned that the middle 8 was something they were working to improve. I like being able to see evolution in thought from Napier like that as opposed to some of the stiff-necked "everything is fine" approach some previous coaches have had. If the OL can do their job, this Offense can be explosive, if not, time to ask questions about two OL coaches.
Overall, I am curious about this offense. As said above, with great OL play, this might be a really good offense. If it isn't, things can go south quickly as there are some great defenses we face and some tough road atmospheres. That's what makes the season so intriguing for me.
