Truth Takes: Why the Gators Could Win 10 in 2018 - Part 1: Coaching

[GatorTruth133]

Anything is possible. But it's more likely we'll win 6 than 10.

You may be right, although I think a 6-win season would be an abysmal failure.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

I'm not sure I quite understand what you're trying to say. Not to be a douche about it, but your "logic" and syntax leave something to be desired. Demanding ten wins "or else" with a team composed largely of players that wouldn't see the field at an SEC contender is both unreasonable and self-defeating. You're setting yourself up for a huge letdown if you truly believe that anyone is going to cure all of our ills in one season. I do expect considerable improvement, and ten wins is admittedly possible - if not probable. Like some others, I'm just happy that we appear to have a competent, if unspectacular, HC for the first time in almost a decade. It seems to me you're looking for an excuse to find fault with DM, no matter what he does, short of a NCOTY level performance. That is not constructive, IMHO.

Yeah, I typed "send" where I meant "seen." I corrected that, thanks for pointing it out and now I hope it reads much better.

He’s not looking for a 10 win season - he wants to use this season as easy justification that the wrong coach was hired. He’ll say things like “any good coach could win 10 with this schedule and roster”. How do you even prove that? That’s not to say that Mullen was the right hire. I just don’t think this season will prove it, either way.

It is really the opposite of what both of you, particularly SeaBee, are suggesting. I admittedly did not like the Mullen hire, but I am willing to be in show me mode.

I am however pointing out how easy the schedule is because even 10 wins this season does not mean he is the right guy for the job. A slight improvement of the crappy offenses of the last decade and even decent defense could lead to 10 wins against this schedule and him still not be the right coach. I can see the Mullen mania on UF boards if he ekes out 10 wins, but I will still be in a show me mode as he was scheduled for those 10 wins at least.

I am also pointing out that UF's players are not crappy as so many around here claim. They have been merely poorly coached. I think my point of view is being validated now with people picking UF as a team likely to have one of the bigger turn arounds this year. I think that is based on roster and schedule as much as Mullen's coaching because most analysts agree with you guys that the full impact of a coach is not felt in year one usually.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

I am also pointing out that UF's players are not crappy as so many around here claim. They have been merely poorly coached. I think my point of view is being validated now with people picking UF as a team likely to have one of the bigger turn arounds this year.

You are wrong about our players. This is a terrible roster, the worst we've had since 79. There has never been a time in history when we were forced to settle on FIU type players. Actually I doubt that was even the case in 79 and we certainly still had a VERY talented but thin team during probation.

That being said, there is some talent still, and obviously they were poorly coached before. We will so if that improves.

No one expects UF to go 4-8, so it is easy to be expected to improve a bunch. Anyone who isn't MIA on the job does better than 4 wins at UF.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

You are wrong about our players. This is a terrible roster, the worst we've had since 79. There has never been a time in history when we were forced to settle on FIU type players. Actually I doubt that was even the case in 79 and we certainly still had a VERY talented but thin team during probation.

We know this is the only position you can take given your other posts on recruiting. We shall see where UF ranks when they do the updated roster talent rankings if they come out this season.

BTW, UF almost certainly had many many more FIU type players on its 105 man 1979 roster than it does now when UF AND EVERYONE who might be out recruiting UF is limited to 85 players.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

BTW, UF almost certainly had many many more FIU type players on its 105 man 1979 roster than it does now when UF AND EVERYONE who might be out recruiting UF is limited to 85 players.

Honestly, Insti, that is batshyt crazy. Batshyt crazy. We never lost top targets to midlevel or lower level SEC schools in the past and never grabbed low level directional school trash just to fill the roster. Never. You are fuggin nuts.

You should just stick to the theory that you don't know much about recruiting, which you used to admit, and that you HOPE that coaching can overcome the talent gap. That is at least intellectually honest.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

Honestly, Insti, that is batshyt crazy. Batshyt crazy. We never lost top targets to midlevel or lower level SEC schools in the past and never grabbed low level directional school trash just to fill the roster. Never. You are fuggin nuts.

You should just stick to the theory that you don't know much about recruiting, which you used to admit, and that you HOPE that coaching can overcome the talent gap. That is at least intellectually honest.

What about 85 v. 105 don't you understand. Arithmetic can not be legitimately argued with even by an attorney.

If UF were 20th in recruiting every year now with a maximum of 85 players on every roster, UF would over be choosing from (105 - 85)*20 = 20*20 or 400 players that would have been on the 20 higher ranked rosters in the days of 105 players. That means the roster today necessarily include better players even when UF's recruiting ranking is lower than in the 105 roster days. Put another way those 400 players were on higher ranked rosters back in the 105 roster days of 1979 and UF or whomever was 20th had a much worse roster than now. So UF certainly had many more what you call FIU type players back in the 105 roster days of 1979.

The fact that you are not able to follow this feeds into your other silly statement. What I have said is that I do not follow recruiting, ie individual names as much as I once did. I clearly know far far far more about recruiting that you ever imagined knowing. You sniff jocks and stars. I evaluated what UF does.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

OMG. This is getting as bad as Byrd.

So you think the fact that we had MORE players back then means we have better players now? Because maff?

Let me make it clear. Even the 80s we had guys who were ALL STATE WALKING on to the team, even with 105 schollies. We had a fifth string QB who was Mississippi ALL STATE, which people somehow think is evidence that even scrap heap QBs might be good.

We now have guys who weren't even the best guard or DB on their terrible HS team on schollies and even playing. We have 2nd/3rd string QB who hasn't started since JUNIOR HIGH. People we stole from terrible directional schools and frankly, the directional schools didn't care. They weren't even their top picks of the leftovers.

I'm talking reality here. Not math regarding the number of players on scholarship. Reality Insti.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

OMG.

This is getting as bad as Byrd.

What did someone else ask you to figure out arithmetic too?

 

[SeabeeGator]

Yeah, I typed "send" where I meant "seen." I corrected that, thanks for pointing it out and now I hope it reads much better.



It is really the opposite of what both of you, particularly SeaBee, are suggesting. I admittedly did not like the Mullen hire, but I am willing to be in show me mode.

I am however pointing out how easy the schedule is because even 10 wins this season does not mean he is the right guy for the job. A slight improvement of the crappy offenses of the last decade and even decent defense could lead to 10 wins against this schedule and him still not be the right coach. I can see the Mullen mania on UF boards if he ekes out 10 wins, but I will still be in a show me mode as he was scheduled for those 10 wins at least.

I am also pointing out that UF's players are not crappy as so many around here claim. They have been merely poorly coached. I think my point of view is being validated now with people picking UF as a team likely to have one of the bigger turn arounds this year. I think that is based on roster and schedule as much as Mullen's coaching because most analysts agree with you guys that the full impact of a coach is not felt in year one usually.

People are choosing UF as a team to make a big turnaround because going from 4 to 8 wins would be a major turnaround. Going to 10, even with an easy schedule, would be a big accomplishment. I agree that if UF wins 10, it doesn’t mean he’s the man for the job. I just wish you were smart enough to realize that failing to reach 10 wins also doesn’t mean that he’s the wrong guy for the job. His “fit” will be determine during year 3, not 1.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

I just wish you were smart enough to realize that failing to reach 10 wins also doesn’t mean that he’s the wrong guy for the job. His “fit” will be determine during year 3, not 1.

I agree on both points so clearly the lack of understanding lies elsewhere. He or any employee might not be up to minimum standards immediately, but you and others do not need to excuse not being up to minimum standards. The standards are what they are and he better be soon after that as you say.

 

[SeabeeGator]

I agree on both points so clearly the lack of understanding lies elsewhere. He or any employee might not be up to minimum standards immediately, but you and others do not need to excuse not being up to minimum standards. The standards are what they are and he better be soon after that as you say.

There’s no misunderstanding unless you didn’t mean this (or any other variation you type):

I have been saying for months around here that 10 wins is the minimum acceptable number or UF did not hire the right guy.

That’s black and white. It doesn’t support what you just said you agree with. And it’s why we don’t agree. Additionally, I think the standard is 9-10 wins with better seasons sprinkled in. Basically what Spurrier gave us. Doesn’t mean I think Mullen is the wrong guy if he misses it this year.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

There’s no misunderstanding unless you didn’t mean this (or any other variation you type):

I have been saying for months around here that 10 wins is the minimum acceptable number or UF did not hire the right guy.

That’s black and white. It doesn’t support what you just said you agree with. And it’s why we don’t agree. Additionally, I think the standard is 9-10 wins with better seasons sprinkled in. Basically what Spurrier gave us. Doesn’t mean I think Mullen is the wrong guy if he misses it this year.

As I said, I am tempering excitement when he does win 10 games this year. I am also stating the standard. I have never said Mullen should be fired if he does not win 10 games this year. I am saying if he does not, his performance was unacceptable.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

As I said, I am tempering excitement when he does win 10 games this year. I am also stating the standard. I have never said Mullen should be fired if he does not win 10 games this year. I am saying if he does not, his performance was unacceptable.

I get what your saying and I agree generally.

I just don't know that it is realistic THIS year with this roster.

10 wins under SOS is actually like 11 wins now with the extra cupcake. There are really only two teams on the schedule that should ever challenge us.

 

[JDW]

So the UGA/FSU games? LSU always has talent and our cross conference is always a concern on a given year there’s no excuse to not get 8 gimme games anyway

 

[InstiGATOR1]

I get what your saying and I agree generally.

I just don't know that it is realistic THIS year with this roster.

10 wins under SOS is actually like 11 wins now with the extra cupcake. There are really only two teams on the schedule that should ever challenge us.

Well if they have their acts together UTn, UGa, FSU and maybe LSU should be tossups every year. Throw in at times one of the SEC west teams might be AU or UAL or aTm all of whom also are tossups if they have their act together and there could be 5 real games in a year.

So with a 12 game schedule and splitting the tossups, 10 wins is about right for most years. Getting games 13, 14 and 15 are bonuses and hard to calculate in the standard as you might only get one of them..

 

[lizardbreath]

Honestly, Insti, that is batshyt crazy. Batshyt crazy. We never lost top targets to midlevel or lower level SEC schools in the past and never grabbed low level directional school trash just to fill the roster. Never. You are fuggin nuts.

You should just stick to the theory that you don't know much about recruiting, which you used to admit, and that you HOPE that coaching can overcome the talent gap. That is at least intellectually honest.

Even if Insti's premise regarding relative talent were correct, which it isn't, It still ignores the inarguable fact that as badly as Dickey skull-****ed the program, he wasn't succeeded by an even bigger momo than he was himself. We hit a daily double in the ass clown sweepstakes that beggars the imagination. The damage done to the program by the two ****tards on the sidelines, as well as the one in the AD's office, is impossible to overstate. We are diminished by any metric, and it will take time, and possibly someone other than DM, to fully undo this mess. The UF brand still has enough allure to draw some interest from the top-tier recruits, but until we show some tangible progress on the field, we are still an also-ran in the minds of the super elite kids who were in the 3rd grade the last time we fielded a truly great FB team. Ten wins is a possibility, but to demand it as a minimum acceptable performance, in these circumstances, is just plain damn goofy.

 

[Tay Bang]

Well if they have their acts together UTn, UGa, FSU and maybe LSU should be tossups every year. Throw in at times one of the SEC west teams might be AU or UAL or aTm all of whom also are tossups if they have their act together and there could be 5 real games in a year.

So with a 12 game schedule and splitting the tossups, 10 wins is about right for most years. Getting games 13, 14 and 15 are bonuses and hard to calculate in the standard as you might only get one of them..

Agree completely. 10 win games is minimum on an ongoing basis. Just isn’t going to happen this year.

 

[oxrageous]

Why are people arguing with Donkey? He throws out false stats or incorrect statements all the time, and tries to present his opinion as fact. He either knows they are false or simply doesn't care if he's wrong, a long as he gets a rise out of people.

I mostly skim his posts now, because he's said the same stuff over and over the entire offseason. Maybe when the season starts he'll have some new material.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Why are people arguing with Donkey? He throws out false stats or incorrect statements all the time, and tries to present his opinion as fact. He either knows they are false or simply doesn't care if he's wrong, a long as he gets a rise out of people.

I mostly skim his posts now, because he's said the same stuff over and over the entire offseason. Maybe when the season starts he'll have some new material.

 

[lizardbreath]

Why are people arguing with Donkey? He throws out false stats or incorrect statements all the time, and tries to present his opinion as fact. He either knows they are false or simply doesn't care if he's wrong, a long as he gets a rise out of people.

I mostly skim his posts now, because he's said the same stuff over and over the entire offseason. Maybe when the season starts he'll have some new material.

For the same reason some people like walking bare-footed through a cow pasture at night? It does have an element of adventure to it.