Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

[Detroitgator]

Today was a lesson in how important the price of oil is relative to stock market moves.

 

[FireFoley]

Today had to have been some kind of outside reversal day in the Nasdaq I am guessing. It probably made an all time high only to take out yesterday's low and probably closed somewhere near it's low today and I am sure below yesterday's low. I doubt it violated any significant uptrend or channel, but for day traders, this is a very powerful short term tool.

 

[Detroitgator]

Today had to have been some kind of outside reversal day in the Nasdaq I am guessing. It probably made an all time high only to take out yesterday's low and probably closed somewhere near it's low today and I am sure below yesterday's low. I doubt it violated any significant uptrend or channel, but for day traders, this is a very powerful short term tool.

Today was doing fine/great, until OPEC opened their yap, then oil tanked and the markets reacted, because, our distorted markets overall are absolutely tied to the price of oil, period. It has to be propped up, at any cost, literally. Yes, the dollar moved up in reaction, but you'll notice there was NO flight to safety/risk off... OPEC yapped, oil tanked, markets followed.

Nothing has changed, markets are directly tied to what oil and the 10 yr do... daily events are still driven by two things: China (but trade deal now finally admittedly dead), and any even remotely positive talk about Corona related pharma news.

Fed still pumping with more, much more to come... but again... oil, oil, oil.. must be propped up, no matter what, at any cost (literally).

 

[FireFoley]

I had to leave my house not long after the opening this morning, but I was up at 4am and they were already talking that OPEC+ was going to cut back on their curbs and produce more. The rumor seemed to have legs so I find it strange that it took the actual announcement from the towel heads to send oil down. Not saying you are wrong, but saying that well known secret was out there way before the opening.

Also at what time did all the states changes and Hong Kong's announcements about the Kung Flu take place? Wonder if that had any effect.?

 

[Detroitgator]

"Yield curve control" = printing trillions of dollars to buy debt...

 

[bradgator2]

@Detroitgator

"Yield curve control" = printing trillions of dollars to buy debt...

When do you pull the ripcord?

 

[Detroitgator]

@Detroitgator


When do you pull the ripcord?

Not anytime soon, it's market positive and they've actually been doing it since QE 1, they are just finally admitting it.

 

[Detroitgator]

I'll have an update tonight heading into the week...

 

[Detroitgator]

Quick update, cuz i'm smoked! Again, using the S&P 500 for numbers, but they are my guide post for errthing else markets wise...

1. All signs remain bullish.
2. Dow Transports (leading indicator for SP500) continue to rise. After bouncing off the bottom of their 2 SD channel a week or two ago, it has steadily risen to mid-channel.
3. Russel 2000 (leading indicator for SP500) has risen well above its previous resistance.
4. Need to see SP500 close solidly above June highs (3232 level), once that happens, will look for it to fill the end of February "gap down" around the 3300 level, if it does that, then looking to go over 3400. Once we get that high at 34-3500 level, we get the BIG move down potentially into the 27-2900 range. That's the second chance to get long. This is my higher probability scenario.
5. Less like is that we bounce off June highs and go down to 3150 level, must protect 3125 or bigger drop to 3000 or lower.

 

[FireFoley]

Quick update, cuz i'm smoked! Again, using the S&P 500 for numbers, but they are my guide post for errthing else markets wise...

1. All signs remain bullish.
2. Dow Transports (leading indicator for SP500) continue to rise. After bouncing off the bottom of their 2 SD channel a week or two ago, it has steadily risen to mid-channel.
3. Russel 2000 (leading indicator for SP500) has risen well above its previous resistance.
4. Need to see SP500 close solidly above June highs (3232 level), once that happens, will look for it to fill the end of February "gap down" around the 3300 level, if it does that, then looking to go over 3400. Once we get that high at 34-3500 level, we get the BIG move down potentially into the 27-2900 range. That's the second chance to get long. This is my higher probability scenario.
5. Less like is that we bounce off June highs and go down to 3150 level, must protect 3125 or bigger drop to 3000 or lower.

Thanx for posting. Your technical indicators are in line but as you know I have been very edgy. Not on the economics of specific companies, but on the economic fundamentals of the world and society. I do not know what it will be that sends us down if it happens, but if it happens it will be fast, IMO. Too much talk of another large shutdown, way too many jobs going to be lost permanently that are now being vocalized (I have been saying that for a long time). My problem is that I am a big picture person and a process guy and I tend to view things way way way out. It is detrimental to the short term views that the entire world lives by. I will be correct, but I will be early.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

We might need more Covid.....

 

[Detroitgator]

Thanx for posting. Your technical indicators are in line but as you know I have been very edgy. Not on the economics of specific companies, but on the economic fundamentals of the world and society. I do not know what it will be that sends us down if it happens, but if it happens it will be fast, IMO. Too much talk of another large shutdown, way too many jobs going to be lost permanently that are now being vocalized (I have been saying that for a long time). My problem is that I am a big picture person and a process guy and I tend to view things way way way out. It is detrimental to the short term views that the entire world lives by. I will be correct, but I will be early.

Yeah, you're the only one like that. Not as big picture as you think.

EDIT: @FireFoley
I will try to type up what I mean by my jab at you tonight, because I think you're worthy of an explanation (I hope "worthy" lives up to my "arrogant cv nt" nickname!).

I obviously don't know you, but I do think you are smarter than I about how the markets are SUPPOSED to run and how the system is SUPPOSED to work, and you are still stuck in that paradigm. I think you are still where I was mentally from 2010 to almost 2015 about how things are SUPPOSED to work... but that's not how they work anymore. I grossly underestimated how long the Fed can prop up the system, and I don't do that anymore... but I feel like that is exactly where you are mentally right now. Here is what has changed from 2010-15 to now. Back then, the Fed was doing things (for fact), but not openly admitting they were doing them. Now they flat out, on an almost daily basis, trot out at least one Fed President to tell us that is EXACTLY what they are doing, and doing so with unlimited funds.... they are flat out stating it openly now that they are doing things "never done before."

So what does that mean in the "big picture?" YES, there will be a reckoning one day... I've been waiting for it since 2010 and it's still not here and it won't be probably for several more years. In 2015 I quit trying to "time" when that market (especially bond market) reckoning will come and I simply TRADE THE MARKET IN FRONT OF MY FACE... not what I think, not what anyone is saying in the news about China or a virus vaccine or a.... whatever. Only three things matter, PERIOD: 10yr must hold, Oil must be propped up, Dollar must not rise (a distant third factor).... Those are the ONLY things that matter going forward and they will do ANYTHING to make those things happen (print, but, start a war... ANYTHING). So, while that's happening, ALL THOSE THINGS ARE MARKET POSITIVE... PERIOD. DO NOT FIGHT IT. ;)

Yes, from 2010-12 I prepared my personal assets for the "big picture"/reckoning that will certainly come by investing in hard/tangible assets (real estate and metal)... and yes, in hindsight, I missed a 100-300% market run up from the lows and IN HINDSIGHT, should have put all that money in the market, watched it double/triple, then cashed out and bought the hard assets and pocketed the rest. Do I lose sleep? Nope... I lost $0 in the last 10 years and have made plenty to be happy and it has all appreciated. Now, I don't fight the "what is going on with these markets? everything is manipulated!!!!" (which it is) anymore... I trade the market in front of me and have made gobs of money since the bottom and yes, it's going up more in spite of the true fundamental schitshow that is the financial/business world right now. Don't fight it... but yes, the reckoning is coming, whether a dollar revalue, a collapse, or whatever... but I will NEVER again underestimate the ability of an unregulated, unaccountable, private entity with a printing press and unlimited paper and ink to keep the charade running longer.

Never mind about writing tonight... rant off! ;)

PS I really do enjoy/value your posts because I can tell that you actually know what you are talking about. I know enough to be dangerous to myself and I just follow a system.

 

[Detroitgator]

Quick update, cuz i'm smoked! Again, using the S&P 500 for numbers, but they are my guide post for errthing else markets wise...

1. All signs remain bullish.
2. Dow Transports (leading indicator for SP500) continue to rise. After bouncing off the bottom of their 2 SD channel a week or two ago, it has steadily risen to mid-channel.
3. Russel 2000 (leading indicator for SP500) has risen well above its previous resistance.
4. Need to see SP500 close solidly above June highs (3232 level), once that happens, will look for it to fill the end of February "gap down" around the 3300 level, if it does that, then looking to go over 3400. Once we get that high at 34-3500 level, we get the BIG move down potentially into the 27-2900 range. That's the second chance to get long. This is my higher probability scenario.
5. Less like is that we bounce off June highs and go down to 3150 level, must protect 3125 or bigger drop to 3000 or lower.

UPDATE TO THIS POST....

1. Read bullet #4 above for reference, this is the track we are on after yesterday's trading.
2. SP500 closed yesterday well above the June highs, above 3250.
3. Support is now moved up to 3160, need to remain above this.
4. S&P 500 now headed for somewhere in the 3337 to 3453 level.
5. HOWEVER, we are now entering a top area and it is NOT a good time to put new money in, and you'd better start watching the stuff you currently hold. It is probable that we will go as high as 34-3500, but that is NOT the time to be getting in. In fact, I will probably reduce the current positions I'm holding by 75% or more (go to cash basically) if we keep edging up this week/next week into that region... we might get a small pullback first to the daily 13 and 21 EMAs (around 3200), then the rise to 34-3500, but we're in a bad spot for guessing right now.
6. Once we are anywhere near 3400, I won't be adding to anything and I will be preparing to SHORT for the big leg down back below 3000, maybe well below to the 27-2900 range.

That's it for now, good luck.

 

[FireFoley]

You are not going to offend me @Detroitgator I appreciate anyone's opinion. I don;t disagree with your assessments, but having spent so many years as a trader making a living, when I left and "retired" I took more of an investing thought with some trading principals. Anyway, I really became enthralled with economics and wished I had majored in that, but that is another story. I long to be an economist in my 2nd life so I can be wrong 90% of the time and still keep my job for years b/c I am busy explaining why I was wrong. I like looking under the hood and thinking long term b/c I think money can be made that way as well (see housing and credit circa 2002-2006). It was obvious to me, it just took a while. But this is a different animal as you mentioned as these past few years the FED has made no bones about it!/ The Stock Market is part of our plan and we will not let it FAIL!!!!! It will fail but they are going to keep it propped up whether it is their mandate or not.

On a more recent note, today was another one of those days where the 6 stocks that make up 50% of the Nasdaq failed. Interestingly they had a nice bounce yesterday after an entire down week, the first down week in what YEARS? Well one day is what might be considered a dead cat bounce, and now it was south again today? Was last week the beginning? You can never be sure until it is, but these 6 or 10 stocks are thought to be defensive in a way so it might take time to shake out. But these types of reversal days from the market's top stocks have to be considered.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Skimmin' 20% off the cream from growth and tech and movin it back to LT/strips(they're only gonna skyrocket when/if you doomsdayers are right) and the best part is they're even out performing 60/40's on up days......

 

[FireFoley]

Skimmin' 20% off the cream from growth and tech and movin it back to LT/strips(they're only gonna skyrocket when/if you doomsdayers are right) and the best part is they're even out performing 60/40's on up days......

So what happen to your we are going to be back in just a matter of days? With your views of 3% unemployment right around the corner, I thought you would be loading the boat on airlines, hotels, casinos, dept. stores, restaurants, etc. etc etc.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

With your views of 3% unemployment right around the corner, I thought you would be loading the boat on airlines, hotels, casinos, dept. stores, restaurants, etc. etc etc.

Oh it'll be back just fine. A small blip from a mini tech pop but hell those LT funds are even out performing tech year to date and when the panic monsters think it's down the tube time being in them now just means bigger gains on the small trip down them more profit from the bottom to the top....pretty simple really.

 

[Detroitgator]

Silver finally catching the bid it deserves

 

[BMF]

UPDATE TO THIS POST....

1. Read bullet #4 above for reference, this is the track we are on after yesterday's trading.
2. SP500 closed yesterday well above the June highs, above 3250.
3. Support is now moved up to 3160, need to remain above this.
4. S&P 500 now headed for somewhere in the 3337 to 3453 level.
5. HOWEVER, we are now entering a top area and it is NOT a good time to put new money in, and you'd better start watching the stuff you currently hold. It is probable that we will go as high as 34-3500, but that is NOT the time to be getting in. In fact, I will probably reduce the current positions I'm holding by 75% or more (go to cash basically) if we keep edging up this week/next week into that region... we might get a small pullback first to the daily 13 and 21 EMAs (around 3200), then the rise to 34-3500, but we're in a bad spot for guessing right now.
6. Once we are anywhere near 3400, I won't be adding to anything and I will be preparing to SHORT for the big leg down back below 3000, maybe well below to the 27-2900 range.

That's it for now, good luck.

I know you "don't like to give advice"....but say you held S&P index funds and were up well over 20%, and the S&P hits 3400, what would someone in that position do? Sell it all? Sell half? Sell 25%? Then just sit on it for a while? Asking for a friend....

 

[BMF]

You are not going to offend me @Detroitgator I appreciate anyone's opinion. I don;t disagree with your assessments, but having spent so many years as a trader making a living, when I left and "retired" I took more of an investing thought with some trading principals. Anyway, I really became enthralled with economics and wished I had majored in that, but that is another story. I long to be an economist in my 2nd life so I can be wrong 90% of the time and still keep my job for years b/c I am busy explaining why I was wrong. I like looking under the hood and thinking long term b/c I think money can be made that way as well (see housing and credit circa 2002-2006). It was obvious to me, it just took a while. But this is a different animal as you mentioned as these past few years the FED has made no bones about it!/ The Stock Market is part of our plan and we will not let it FAIL!!!!! It will fail but they are going to keep it propped up whether it is their mandate or not.

On a more recent note, today was another one of those days where the 6 stocks that make up 50% of the Nasdaq failed. Interestingly they had a nice bounce yesterday after an entire down week, the first down week in what YEARS? Well one day is what might be considered a dead cat bounce, and now it was south again today? Was last week the beginning? You can never be sure until it is, but these 6 or 10 stocks are thought to be defensive in a way so it might take time to shake out. But these types of reversal days from the market's top stocks have to be considered.

I've been forecasting a real estate crash for more than 18 months now....and have been 110% wrong! So, I'm doing like the climate change alarmists and moving the goal posts further down the road (basically, I'm sitting on a bunch of cash until there's an obvious downturn).